Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC 326 Odds for March 7th Main Card Opener
"Robocop" wants his revenge. Gregory Rodrigues opens the UFC 326 main card tonight in Las Vegas with unfinished business against the man who knocked him cold in 2023. Brunno "The Hulk" Ferreira rides a three-fight win streak into this rematch and checks in as a +138 underdog at FanDuel, but the betting public isn't buying the upset. Here's the Rodrigues vs. Ferreira best bet for UFC 326.
Jack Borovitz - March 7, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
4 Minute ReadGregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest UFC 326 Odds for March 7th Main Card Opener
Three years ago, Ferreira stepped in on short notice for Rodrigues' scheduled bout against Brad Tavares and scored a significant upset via first-round knockout in his Octagon debut. Since then, Robocop has been on a mission. He's gone 5-1 with finishes of Denis Tiuliulin, Brad Tavares, and Jack Hermansson, dropping only a Fight of the Night TKO to Jared Cannonier, and enters this rematch on the heels of back-to-back wins over Hermansson and Roman Kopylov.
Ferreira, now 15-2, has gone 6-2 in the UFC since 2023, most recently beating Marvin Vettori via unanimous decision for the biggest win of his tenure, and rides a three-fight win streak of his own into tonight. The first fight gave Ferreira bragging rights. Tonight decides who's actually the better fighter.
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Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds
- Moneyline: Rodrigues (-164), Ferreira (+138)
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Saturday, March 7th, 2026
- Time: 9:20 PM ET (Estimated Fight Time)
- Where to Watch: Paramount+
Click here for complete Rodrigues vs. Ferreira odds
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Prediction
The whole story of this rematch runs through round one. Ferreira doesn't throw a single shot with less than maximum power, and his ability to explode forward with surprising combinations, spinning kicks, or sudden takedowns means every threat has to be respected from the opening horn. That's what finished Rodrigues in 2023 and what makes this a dangerous matchup on paper even with Robocop as a clear -190 favorite.
The paper tells a different story now. Rodrigues lands 5.60 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy, compared to Ferreira's 3.85 at 50%. More telling is how each man absorbs punishment: Rodrigues absorbs 4.84 significant strikes per minute while Ferreira absorbs 3.99. Both numbers are high, both men are willing to trade, and that's exactly why round one is a coin flip. Past round one, the size story takes over. Rodrigues at 6'3" with a 75-inch reach holds a five-inch height advantage over the 5'10" Ferreira, and his technical boxing and grappling skills create problems Ferreira has to solve at distance before he can ever get comfortable.
Ferreira's aggression often comes at the cost of discipline, and his effectiveness tends to fade as fights progress. Both of his losses came by stoppage. Rodrigues has shown tremendous patience and distance control since 2023, displaying a much more polished skill set in his recent outings. The BJJ pedigree is a card he holds in reserve, and the threat of a takedown alone keeps Ferreira from sitting back in pure power-punching mode. The Tapology community backs Rodrigues with 75% of fans picking him to win the rematch.
Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira Pick
- Pick: Over 1.5 Rounds (-110) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Rodrigues wins this fight, and the moneyline at -190 reflects that correctly. The value is elsewhere. Ferreira's finishing power keeps round one genuinely live, and the concern with Rodrigues moneyline at -190 is paying a steep price for a fighter whose chin has been tested. Over 1.5 rounds captures the same result at a fraction of the cost: if Rodrigues manages the opening exchanges and forces Ferreira into a longer fight, his more measured approach should dictate the outcome from round two onward. Robocop's evolution as a technical striker, combined with the reach advantage he can use to keep Ferreira at bay, makes surviving that first-round pressure the most likely scenario. The sharp money agrees with the over.
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