Week 5 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 5 of the Season?
We have an exciting Week 5 NFL slate to look forward too. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - October 4, 2023, 3:28 PM EDT
9 minWeek 5 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 5 of the Season?
We're back with another exciting Week 5 NFL slate to bet following an absolutely brutal outing in Week 4. 0-4 isn't fun, but this just means we're due to get back to raking profit after a down week.
A quick recap of Week 4 NFL picks includes the Eagles failing to cover -8.5 ATS, going into overtime against the scrappy Washington Commanders that seemingly have Philadelphia's number. None of the other three picks came close to hitting, as the Bengals were shockingly boat raced on the road by the Titans, failing to find the end zone in a 28-3 loss that ruined their -134 moneyline odds. Buffalo nearly scored enough points to hit over 53.5 on their own, so taking the under in that game is a rough miss in hindsight. Green Bay and Detroit going over 45.5 was another surprise, as the Lions scored three touchdowns early to build an insurmountable comeback on the road at Lambeau Field.
Week 5 is the first time we're dealing with Bye Weeks, so there will be a couple less games to wager, tightening up betting lines at sportsbooks. Injuries are also in effect, in a positive direction for once, as Cooper Kupp is cleared to return to the Rams' offense, adding a potent playmaker into the equation. Despite fewer games, we're getting some great matchups in Week 5, featuring Dallas vs. San Francisco on Sunday Night Football, the Eagles on the road -4.5 ATS against the Rams, Patrick Mahomes versus Kirk Cousins, and another London game between the Jaguars and Bills, featuring Trevor Lawrence against the red-hot Bills' signal caller, Josh Allen.
Let's dive into four of my favorite Week 5 NFL picks ahead of another exciting slate!
Week 5 NFL Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
This is a difficult matchup to predict based on how good Buffalo has been since Week 1, combined with the losses Jacksonville's taken against Houston and Kansas City. It was the way the Jaguars lost these games, failing to find the end zone against the Chiefs, while getting routed at home by C.J. Stroud and the high-flying Texans passing attack.
The Jaguars play well in London and this will be their second week overseas, which gives them an edge against the Bills, who had to wait until this week to travel. Jacksonville historically plays Buffalo tough, winning outright as underdogs, or covering ATS. Oddsmakers have the Jaguars +5.5 ATS at -110 odds on FanDuel, and this feels like a good number to bet. The Jags have covered the spread in each of their last six games against teams above .500 and the Bills are allowing 6.3 YPC, which is the most in the league. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby could have a big day, keeping the Jaguars in scoring distance. Plus, the Jaguars are ranked top-12 in rushing yards allowed (3.9) with only two rushing touchdowns.
Jacksonville can force Buffalo back into being a one-dimensional offense by eliminating James Cook and Allen in the run game, while the Jaguars can move the football into scoring position with their rushing attack. They dominated a good Falcons defensive line in Week 4, controlling the game throughout, so losing by five points or less is a likely outcome. It doesn't feel great betting against the Bills right now, but this is exactly how we'll get our money back.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Controversy can be found all over Pittsburgh, mostly with its lackluster offense. Now, Mitch Trubisky replaces an injured Kenny Pickett behind an offensive line that has struggled to open run lanes, which is why the Steelers' running backs are averaging 3.6 YPC.
Pittsburgh is also missing Diontae Johnson, who is an explosive weapon and an effective player in picking up first downs. Now, insert the Baltimore Ravens defense, led by Roquan Smith and Jadeveon Clowney, who allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (92.5) and face a sputtering Steelers offense lacking several starters.
OC Matt Canada is under fire for his play calling, while Ravens' OC Todd Monken has found a way to get Lamar Jackson back into 2019 MVP form. Jackson has recorded four rushing touchdowns, two in each of his last two games played, to become the de facto RB1 in Baltimore's offense, while reconnecting with star tight end Mark Andrews against a top-five Browns defense in Week 4 for another pair of touchdowns. The Steelers' pass defense is bad, allowing a 5.6 touchdown percentage on pass attempts this season, ranked fourth-highest.
The under has been automatic in this AFC North matchup over the past few games, but oddsmakers already have it set to 38.5. Baltimore may wind up scoring 28-35 points on their own, so instead of flirting with an under sweat on the week's lowest point total game, let's hit the alternate spread on FanDuel for Ravens -2.5 at -160 odds.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Expect Patrick Mahomes to explode against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. Kansas City's offensive line is allowing the lowest sack percentage this season at 1.3%, only two total through four weeks. Yes, Mahomes' mobility allows him to evade pressure better than most other quarterbacks in the league, but the Vikings' defense rank 29th in pressure rate at 17.1 percent, so the two-time MVP will have all day to make throws or runs out of a secure pocket.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings found their first win in a tough, low-scoring road game in Week 4, relying on two Justin Jefferson touchdowns and a heavy dose of run game to control the clock. Its defense did log multiple sacks, including a forced fumble returned for the go-ahead touchdown to put the game on ice. Still, Minnesota is going up against one of the league's best offensive line units, with Mahomes likely finding Travis Kelce for two or three touchdowns on the road in Minneapolis.
Oddsmakers are only giving the Vikings +4 ATS at home in a game where their defense will be severely outmatched. The point total line is set to 52.5 with more juice on the under at -114 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Vikings are giving up 5.1 touchdown percentage to pass attempts from opposing quarterbacks, ranked seventh-highest in the league. Conversely, the Chiefs are allowing 2.9%, ranked tenth-lowest. The cherry on top is Minnesota failing to cover the spread in each of its last five home games played and they are 1-2-1 ATS overall.
We're hammering the Chiefs for a multi-unit wager at -4 ATS on FanDuel this weekend.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
The premier game on the Week 5 NFL slate is the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Cowboys and 49ers. We saw these two team's collide in the NFC Divisional Round last year, and they also met in the playoffs in 2021, with San Francisco winning both games outright.
Dallas hasn't looked like a juggernaut offensively but they are using an elite defense, despite missing cornerback Trevon Diggs, plus an effective rushing attack to open up CeeDee Lamb and tight end Jake Ferguson for big plays downfield. San Francisco is allowing just a 2.3 percent touchdown rate on pass attempts, which ranks top-five, while Dallas' defense is at 1.9 percent, ranked third-best. We're due for a fantastic matchup with plenty of offense and defense to go around.
San Francisco has covered the spread in each of its last 13 home games against NFC opponents, while winning 14 consecutive regular-season games. The 49ers are a juggernaut at home, and quarterback Brock Purdy's ability to avoid turnovers and make big-time, accurate throws keeps every defense off guard. Factor in star running back Christian McCaffery, who is playing MVP-caliber football himself following a four-touchdown outing against Arizona, and it's easy to see San Francisco going 17-0 heading into the playoffs.
Oddsmakers have the 49ers at -196 moneyline odds at FanDuel, while -3.5 ATS. This is a tricky number to wager, because we could get screwed by the hook with the half-point, if the 49ers win by a field goal. The point total line is at an even 45, so we could get a push. Six of Dallas' last eight games played have gone under, including each of the previous two head-to-head matchups that occurred during the playoffs.
We're heading back to the alternate spread to get 49ers -2.5 ATS at -164 odds on FanDuel. I don't trust the point total and the 49ers at -196 is too much juice to pay, while -3.5 ATS also feels like a trap.
Week 5 NFL Picks
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills: Jaguars +5.5 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ravens Alternate Spread -2.5 (-160) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs -4 (-110) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
- Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers: 49ers -2.5 ATS (-164) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds for this pick
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