Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Put On a Show?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Put On a Show?
Kansas City will stay on the road for a late afternoon matchup against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5. Patrick Mahomes didn't play his best game during the Chiefs' win over the Jets in prime time last weekend, but he did rip off a couple of impressive runs to convert first downs and ice the game late. Meanwhile, the Vikings just earned their first win on the road against an 0-4 Panthers team, relying on Justin Jefferson and pressure from its defense to find the win column.
Now, Mahomes and the Chiefs are gifted one of the best matchups in the league against a Vikings defense that is amongst the worst defending the pass. Kirk Cousins has been one of the most pass-heavy quarterbacks in the league this year, but during Minnesota's win in Carolina, the franchise signal-caller attempted only 19 passes, completing 12 of them for 139 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The Chiefs have a good defense and have yet to fully unlock their offense, which is a scary prospect for the Vikings defense entering Sunday's matchup in Minneapolis. Oddsmakers have the spread favoring the Chiefs at -3.5 ATS on the road, while it's the highest point total line of the Week 5 slate, sitting at 52.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Will Cousins and the Vikings finally get their first win at home to avoid a 1-4 start? Or will Mahomes and Travis Kelce go ballistic in a favorable matchup to remind the league of their annual dominance? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his latest prediction and pick for Chiefs vs. Vikings.
Chiefs vs. Vikings Start Time, Where To Watch, And Odds
- Date: Sunday, October 8, 2023
- Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: CBS
Chiefs vs. Vikings Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (-110), Vikings +3.5 (-110)
- Total Odds: Under 52.5 (-110), Over 52.5 (-110)
- Moneyline Odds: Chiefs (-190), Vikings (+160)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Injury Report
Chiefs
Questionable: LB Nick Bolton (Ankle)
Out: N/A
Vikings
Questionable: S Josh Metellus (Shoulder), LB Marcus Davenport (Ankle), S Lewis Cine (Hamstring)
Out: N/A
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
Both opponents are fairly healthy entering this matchup, so we should see a good game from both sides. Kansas City has won 11 of its last 12 games played, dropping a 21-20 loss at home on banner night to the Detroit Lions back in Week 1. Conversely, the Vikings have been unable to cover the spread in each of their last five home games, although they've been favored in most of those matchups.
Minnesota's home games have been rough. A Week 1 loss to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that shocked everyone, while another shootout against the Chargers resulted in a devastating last second loss that ended with an interception at the goal-line. Now, a Chiefs offense, which despite winning three of four games, has yet to tap into its full potential, is another big challenge for Vikings' DC Brian Flores to contain in Week 5.
These two opponents haven't played each other since 2019, when the Chiefs won with a walk-off field goal in Arrowhead Stadium. The Vikings have lost four straight games as underdogs, while eight of their last ten games have gone over the point total line. This means we're due for another shootout at U.S. Bank Stadium, just like we saw during their 28-24 loss to the Chargers in Week 3.
Minnesota ranks fourth-worst in pressure percentage, second-worst in quarterback knock down percentage, while the Chiefs' offensive line is allowing a league-best 1.3 percent sack rate. Mahomes' mobility, combined with Kansas City's stout offensive line play, means the two-time MVP will have all day to pick apart the defense, which ranks sixth-worst in touchdown percentage against the pass at 5.1 percent.
The Vikings actually have a stout run defense, allowing only 3.5 YPC and three rushing touchdowns, while the Chiefs' defense is allowing 4.4 YPC with only one rushing touchdown. Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers will need to continue their efficient running in the Vikings' backfield like they did in Week 4 against Carolina to keep Minnesota ahead of schedule and to open up the passing attack. Kansas City's defense is only giving up a 2.9 percent touchdown rate on pass attempts, ranked 10th-lowest in the league.
It's either the point total or the spread in this matchup. The over is appealing at 52.5, but this missed by half a point with the same line against the Chargers in Week 3. Kansas City is 2-2 ATS, while Minnesota is 1-2-1 ATS, struggling to cover at home. This feels like a big game for Mahomes, Kelce, and the rest of the Chiefs' offense, so let's hammer Kansas City -3.5 at -110 odds on FanDuel.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Pick
- Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 -110 is currently the best odds. Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
Win a $50 Gift Card on NFL Sunday Football
Think you know what's going to happen in various games on NFL Sunday this week? Answer the pick questions below for your chance to win a $50 Amazon gift card!
NFL Odds
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.