Week 8 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 8 of the Season?
NFL Week 7 was a wild ride, so let's hope for more excitement in NFL Week 8. Which games should you target this week? NFL handicapper Matt MacKay gives us his best bets to make during Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season.
Matt MacKay - October 25, 2023, 11:58 AM EDT
9 minWeek 8 NFL Picks: Which Games Should You Target in Week 8 of the Season?
The NFL is rewarding us with 16 games in Week 8. That's right! A full slate of wall-to-wall action following six teams on Bye in Week 7, giving us ample opportunities to place and cash bets as we approach the half way point of the 2023 NFL season.
Last week's official NFL picks went 1-3, as the Saints and Jaguars smashed the point total over on Thursday night, followed by the Lions getting demolished 38-6 by the Baltimore Ravens. It looked like we'd have a chance to hit over 43.5 points in the Steelers vs. Rams matchup, but 24-17 fell short by a field goal, as the Rams missed two field goal attempts in a home loss to Pittsburgh. The one pick that cashed for us on the Week 7 slate was the Philadelphia Eagles moneyline at -144 odds, containing Miami's offense, while Jalen Hurts went deep to star wideout A.J. Brown early and often.
We're due for a 4-0 week with NFL picks and there is a lot to like on the NFL Week 8 slate. NFL handicapper Matt MacKay shares his best NFL Week 8 picks to bet, offering plenty of analysis and how much to place on each wager.
Week 8 NFL Picks
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday Night Football gives us a matchup between two teams who have lost their mojo in recent weeks, as the Buffalo Bills host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in prime time. The Bucs defense is surrendering 6.3 net yards per pass attempt, 10th-highest in the league, giving up six receiving touchdowns, while faring much better against the run, holding opponents to 3.8 YPC and three total rushing touchdowns.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, the Bills' strength on offense is its passing attack, led by Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Oddsmakers expect the Bills to win easily, laying -8.5 ATS and -405 odds on the moneyline. Tampa Bay has also failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games after playing a divisional opponent, but 8.5 points is a lot for Buffalo to cover, as they failed to hit this mark against the Giants without Saquon Barkley. We're rolling with the safest bet in this matchup, which is a Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown at -105 odds on FanDuel. Diggs has scored a touchdown in each of the Bills' last four Thursday night games and he's earning elite volume, while logging nine red zone targets and five end zone targets this season, resulting in six touchdowns through seven games.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders
The first matchup between the Eagles and Commanders somehow went to overtime, ending 34-31 in favor of Philadelphia. Don't expect a repeat on Sunday, when the Eagles, fresh off a statement 31-17 win over Miami, roll into D.C. to take on their divisional opponent.
Washington is allowing over a 13 percent sack rate, second-highest in the league, and Sam Howell has been sacked 40 times already. Jalen Carter and the rest of the Eagles' defensive line rank top-six in pressure rate and hurry percentage, while recording 24 sacks, which is the third-most in the league this season. It's a disastrous outlook for Washington, who only scored seven points against a porous Giants run defense in Week 7.
Philadelphia is 4-2-1 ATS, laying -6.5 ATS in this matchup with -115 odds, so let's back the Eagles to win by at least a touchdown on the road against Washington, whose defense is also in shambles, allowing 14 receiving touchdowns, which is the second-most in the league this season.
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers
A game featuring the top-two picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, quarterbacks Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, will be a fun matchup to watch in Week 8. The Texans travel to Carolina, with both teams getting an extra week of preparation due to their Week 7 Bye.
Stroud has been remarkable for the Texans, allowing Houston to be a pass-centric offense, demonstrating his accuracy, strong arm, and good decision-making in the pocket. Young has had a much tougher time acclimating, but wideout Adam Thielen has been effective, functioning as Young's trusted safety valve when the Panthers inevitably fall behind in a game.
Despite the stark contrast in the state of each franchise, the Panthers are only getting +3 ATS and +126 odds on their moneyline, making them just a slight home underdog. The Texans are quietly elite at defending the pass, allowing just four receiving touchdowns this season, tied for fewest in the league with the Ravens and Rams. They are also top-12 in drives ending in a scoring possession against their opponents with a 33.3 percent rate.
Carolina's defense is injured and allowing 5.7 yards per play, which is the fourth-most in the league this season, alongside Washington. Houston shouldn't have much of an issue moving the football on offense and containing Young and the Panthers while playing defense, plus Carolina has failed to cover the spread in six straight games. Let's play it safe and eat the juice with the Texans' moneyline at -148 odds on FanDuel in this matchup between top rookie quarterback prospects.
New York Jets vs. New York Giants
Both of these teams may call MetLife Stadium their home, but only one of them is capable of deploying good defense and a capable offense. The Jets are on a mini two-game winning streak coming out fresh after their Week 7 bye, while the Giants have scored 26 combined points with Tyrod Taylor operating as their QB1 since Week 6.
The Giants' run defense is among the worst in the league, surrendering 5.0 YPC and 10 rushing touchdowns, with both of these defensive metrics ranking in the bottom-three. Breece Hall is no longer limited by a snap count, fully recovered from his ACL tear a year ago, and he's flashed his talent during the Jets' winning streak, recording consecutive touchdowns and racking up over 125 rushing yards in two games this season. The first one came back in Week 1, when Hall ripped off an 83-yard run against the Bills, and he later scored on a 72-yard touchdown against the Broncos in Week 5.
The Jets will be effective moving the football, while the Giants will have a much tougher task against one of the league's best defenses, rostering Pro Bowl-caliber talent at all three levels. The Giants have lost seven consecutive games as underdogs against AFC East opponents, while managing to cover the spread at home against the AFC in four consecutive games. Technically, the Giants are the home team in this game, getting +3 ATS at -120 odds on FanDuel. The Jets should be able to win outright, unless Zach Wilson regresses to the old version we saw earlier this season, as the Giants are capable of defending the pass.
Let's roll with the Jets to win outright as slight favorites at -146 odds on FanDuel in a game where the point total line is set to a paltry 36.5 points. Long, methodical drives, led by Hall, plus the smothering Jets defense, should extend their winning streak to three games. The Jets can improve to 4-3 as rumors of Aaron Rodgers' return grow louder.
Week 8 NFL Picks
- Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Stefon Diggs Anytime TD Scorer (-105) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders: Eagles -6.5 (-115) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers: Texans Moneyline (-148) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
- New York Jets vs. New York Giants: New York Jets Moneyline (-146) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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