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Japan and Norway face off in the 2023 Women's World Cup Round of 16. Which team has the edge? Stuart Durst shares his favorite bets and predictions for tomorrow morning's Japan vs. Norway Round of 16 matchup.
ANALYSIS

Japan vs. Norway World Cup Betting Picks, Best Bets, and Predictions for Knockout Round

Japan is coming into the knockout rounds with plenty of confidence after absolutely crushing the group stages. They ended their group stage, scoring 11 goals while conceding 0. They were +2800 to +3200 pre-tournament on most sportsbooks but have clearly proven to be one of the main contenders in this World Cup. Norway had a solid group stage showing, taking care of the Philippines 6-0 in their best performance. 

Japan vs. Norway Date, Time, Where to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, August 5, 2023
  • Start Time: 4:00 am ET
  • Where to Watch: FS1, Peacock

Japan vs. Norway Prediction

The most impressive round one performance of the tournament came in a dominant Japanese 4-0 win over Spain, which is arguably one of the best teams in the tournament. You’d think a win like that would mean Japan dominated the time of possession, but they somehow managed to be extremely efficient in winning that matchup with only 23% possession. 

Japan’s Hinata Miyazawa is the competition’s top scorer currently with four goals. It's interesting that despite all the success, she’s still priced at +240 to score in tonight's matchup. Japan is a clinical team that is often unselfish, which can make nailing down goalscorer props hard. She plays midfield for her local Japanese club team, but due to the depth at that position, they are using her in a more aggressive manner. Because they have a more passing-centric midfield, she should benefit from more shot opportunities.  

That being said, I like Miyazawa for his shots on target. This is a well-coached team that's very efficient with shots, and I think 1+ shots on target at -175 is a great parlay piece. I paired it with under 2.5 first half goals on FanDuel to get it down to -132. I also don't mind both teams to score “no'' in the 1H as the other option. I also like the Japan side, but we learned our lesson in the last article tailing too many of our props to the game outcome. 

Striker Ada Hegerberg is questionable with a groin injury, which caused her to miss the previous two matchups. I was initially worried about how this Japanese defense could handle some of the faster and stronger attacks, which they’ve historically struggled against. Still, I think they answered all those questions against Spain. If they can hold steady against that attack, then I think they should be well-prepared for what Norway has to throw at them. I want to see lineup confirmation, but if she’s confirmed good to go, then I think she’s worth a look in the shots market. 

While their defense has been solid so far, Norway struggled against some of the stronger international teams, losing 4-2 to Spain and drawing Sweden 3-3 earlier in the year. At the end of the day, Norway got here based on a win over the Philippines and not much else. I think there is a clear gap between talent levels here, with Japan being a threat to take this whole thing down. I think they advance in regular time and will also be using the “Japan to advance -250” leg in parlays as I feel confident they wrap it up in extra time. 

Japan vs. Norway Betting Picks

Women's World Cup Odds

Article Author

NFLNBANCAAF

Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.

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