What are Public Betting and Money Percentages?

Public betting and money percentages are two important metrics used by sports bettors to gauge where the majority of bets and money are being placed on a certain sporting event. These metrics help bettors comprehend the betting landscape, identify potential EV (expected value), monitor line movement, and make more educated decisions when it comes to sports betting. 

Public betting percentages reflect the proportion of total bets placed on each side of a wage in the market and provide insight into which team or outcome is more widespread being bet on among the general public. In contrast, money percentages indicate the share of the total amount of money wagered on each side, taking into account the larger bets and revealing where the higher stakes bets are being placed. By analyzing these different percentages, bettors can differentiate between casual and professional (sharp) betting activity, often leading to strategic betting decisions while ignoring public betting trends.

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How do betting percentages work?

Betting percentages are straightforward yet effective tools in sports betting analysis that look at the number of bets wagered on a given event. These percentages show how much of the total number of wagers is placed on each side of a wager. For example, if the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing the Dallas Cowboys and 60% of the bets are on the Steelers to win, it indicates that the bulk of bettors selected the Steelers. This data is valuable because it reflects public opinion and can highlight overvalued or undervalued teams established on popular opinion in the market; helping you to find value in a wager.

Let's take another NFL game example between the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins. Suppose 75% of the total bets placed at DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the most popular online sportsbooks in the country, are placed on the Panthers. This high percentage indicates that the public strongly favors the Panthers in this game. However, this does not necessarily signify the Panthers are the best bet, and oftentimes, the opposite is true. Often, sportsbooks change their lines and odds based on betting percentages to offset their risk, sometimes forming value on the less popular side.

What is public money betting?

Public money betting refers to the breakdown of money percentages wagered rather than the pure number of bets. It reveals where the bulk of the money is placed in a given market, which can indicate the confidence level and dollar volume on each side. For instance, if the Arizona Cardinals are playing the Seattle Seahawks and 65% of the money is on the Cardinals, it suggests that influential wagers of size dollars wise (often from sharp bettors) are favoring the Cardinals.

As another example, suppose a game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. If the Browns only have 25% of the bets (volume) but 75% of the money bet, it indicates that bigger, likely sharper, bets are being placed on the Ravens. This discrepancy between betting and money percentages can signal sharp action, where professional bettors think there is value in the Browns winning, despite public opinion (signaled by bet volume).

Lastly, let's analyze an MLB matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves. Suppose the Braves have 45% of the bets but 80% of the money. This scenario suggests that higher wagers (dollar-wise) are backing the Braves, perhaps pointing to sharp action. By tracking where the influential money is going, bettors can align themselves with more educated and confident betting strategies, potentially leading to more wins and long-term success by being on the “smart” side of bets.

Are public betting Percentages and money percentages referring to the same thing?

No, public betting percentages and money percentages are connected but remain distinct metrics. 

Public betting percentages indicate the ratio of the total number (volume) of wagers placed on each side of a bet, showing where the bulk of casual bettors are placing their wagers. Money percentages, on the other hand, reflect the overall share of the total amount of money (price) wagered on each side, highlighting where the bigger, often sharper, stakes are being positioned. While public betting percentages show popular sentiment, money percentages can provide wisdom into more educated and confident betting action, helping gamblers identify likely value and sharp action.

How can Bet and Money Percentages signal sharp action?

Bet and money percentages can be priceless in determining sharp action in sports betting markets. Sharp bettors, often professionals with cutting-edge strategies and insights, tend to place more considerable dollar-size bets. When the money percentage on a team is significantly more elevated than the betting percentage, it suggests that sharp capital is impacting the line.

For example, if the New York Jets are playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jets have 35% of the bets but 80% of the money, it indicates that sharp gamblers are laboriously backing the Jets. This discrepancy indicates that despite public sentiment favoring the Buccaneers, pro bettors see value in the Jets’ odds.

In another example, let’s analyze a UFC matchup between Conor McGregor and Michael Chandler. If Michael Chandler has only attracted 30% of the bets but 60% of the money, it suggests that sharp bettors see value in Chandler, despite the public leaning heavily towards the more popular McGregor. This sharp money can influence the odds, and spreads in other sports, making it a vital factor for bettors to consider when setting their wagers.

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What is a good betting percentage to take sharp action?

While there is no set number, a good betting percentage to take sharp action typically involves a significant difference between betting and money percentages, as described above. Generally, when the money percentage is at least 15% higher than the betting percentage, it suggests sharp action on that side. For example, if an NFL team has 30% of the bets but 50% of the money, this 20% difference implies that sharp bettors are backing this side, making it a potential +EV (value) bet.

What Are NFL Betting Trends and How Do I Use Them?

NFL betting trends are ways or tendencies followed over time in the context of NFL games or statistical patterns. These trends can involve team performance, player performance, point spreads, over/under totals, and different situational factors. 

Understanding NFL Betting Trends

NFL betting trends can be largely categorized into several types:

• Team Trends: These trends look at how a team functions under specific conditions, such as at home versus away games, against particular opponents, or after a loss. For example, if the New York Giants have a strong history of playing at home after a bye week, this trend might cause a bettor to favor them in such conditions.
• Point Spread Trends: These trends focus on how teams perform comparably to the point spread set by sportsbooks. For instance, if the Minnesota Vikings often cover the spread when favored by more than a touchdown, gamblers might use this data to guide their bets that week.
• Over/Under Trends: These trends examine how often games involving certain teams go over or under the published total points number. For example, if games involving the Cincinnati Bengals always go over the total points line, bettors might think about betting the over in their games.
• Situational Trends: These trends consider assorted situational factors such as day of weather conditions, lingering injuries, and time of year, such as around holidays or early in the season. For example, cold weather games in January in Buffalo might impact scoring, leading to trends preferring the under, which is one common situational trend bettors think about. 

Using NFL Betting Trends

To effectively use NFL betting trends, here are a few approaches to consider:

1. Research and Data Collection: Gather historical data and analyze trends. Sites like Pro Football Reference, ESPN, and various sports betting outlets provide exhaustive statistics and trend breakdowns to use in your betting study.
2. Qualitative Analysis: Contextualize the trends by evaluating current season dynamics, such as injuries, a team’s morale, and coaching shifts. While it might be tempting, trends from past seasons may not still apply to the current season.
3. Compare: Compare the observed trends with recent betting lines and public opinion. As discussed above, if a trend suggests a team is likely to cover the point spread, but public betting heavily prefers the opposite, it might hint at a valuable betting opportunity.
4. Balanced Approach: Use trends as one part of a more general betting strategy that involves multiple approaches. Combine trend analysis with other handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, reading expert thoughts, and situational aspects to make well-rounded betting conclusions.
5. Watch Games and Adjust: Continuously scan trend data and adjust your betting strategy accordingly. NFL betting inputs can change rapidly, and remaining updated with the latest reports is crucial for successful betting.

What Are NBA Betting Trends and How Do I Use Them?

NBA betting trends are patterns or trends observed over time in NBA games that can advise betting techniques. These trends can involve NBA team performance, general player behaviors, point spreads, over/unders, and seasonal situational factors. 

Understanding NBA Betting Trends

NBA betting trends can be classified into several key buckets when it comes to NBA betting trends:

• Team Performance Trends: These trends analyze how different NBA teams perform under distinctive conditions, such as home versus away games, back-to-back games, two games in three days, or games following a win. For example, if the Washington Wizards have a strong history of playing at home following a road trip, this trend would catch a sharp bettors' eye in analyzing their weekly performances.
• Point Spread Trends: These trends analyze how teams perform comparably to the point spread set by sportsbooks. For instance, if the Cleveland Cavaliers frequently cover the spread in underdog spots, gamblers might think about this trend when placing bets on Cavaliers games when they are receiving points.
• Player Performance Trends: These trends analyze how particular players perform under specific conditions. For example, if Kevin Durant tends to score more points on the road on the second of back-to-back games, this trend could recommend prop bets connected to his performance in these situational spots.

Using NBA Betting Trends

To effectively use NBA betting trends in your betting strategy, consider following these steps:

1. Research and Data Collection: Assemble historical data and analyze trends, which can be found for free on websites like Basketball Reference, ESPN, and other various sports betting outlets that provide sweeping statistics and trend breakdowns.
2. Qualitative Analysis: Look at the qualitative (not data-related) trends by evaluating current season dynamics, such as injuries to key and role, team roster changes, and coaching approaches.
3. Comparative Analysis: Compare trends with current point spreads and public opinion. If a particular trend suggests a side is likely to cover the spread, but public betting heavily prefers the opposite, it might indicate some +EV and a bet you should make
4. Be Balanced: Use all of the aforementioned trends as part of a broader, balanced betting strategy. 
5. Monitor and Adjust Strategies: Continuously monitor trends that interest you and adjust your betting strategy accordingly. 

FAQs

What is the difference between public betting and money percentages?

Public betting percentages look at the total number of bets placed on each side and assign a percentage to both sides that sum to 100%. Money percentages look at the total amount of money placed on each side and reveal where the larger, often professional and sharper, wagers are being placed. For both public betting and money percentages, it’s important to understand the market to which they apply, such as “All bets made at BetMGM Sportsbook.”

How do betting percentages work? 

Betting percentages work by noting the distribution of bets on each side of a given bet. For example, if 75% of bets are being placed on Side A, and 25% of bets are being placed on Side B, it indicates that Side A is more popular among the betting population. By noting these populations, you can identify the potential value by showing where the public opinion lies. 

What is a good betting percentage? 

A good betting percentage to consider where the sharp action lies is typically identifying if there is a significant discrepancy between the public betting percentage and money percentage. Typically, any difference of more than 10% indicates that professional bettors see value in the less popular (public betting) side.