All Rise: Can Aaron Judge Flirt with .400 as He Contends for AL MVP?
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is off to a blazing start to the season. What are the odds he finishes the year batting .400 or wins American League MVP?
Mark Harris - May 29, 2025, 2:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadAll Rise For the Judge
There are a lot of unenviable tasks in this world, but being a pitcher facing Aaron Judge must be at the top of the list.
Judge has been the biggest story in baseball through the first two months of the season. The hulking Yankees outfielder is tearing the cover off the ball, and after New York's three-game sweep over the Los Angeles Angels, Judge is now hitting .391 with 18 home runs.
He leads MLB in batting average, hits (81), fWAR (4.7), OPS (1.227), slugging (.739), on base percentage (.488), total bases (153), and wRC+ (242). Funny enough, his 18 home runs actually trail Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh, but who really cares when he's putting up those gaudy numbers. Those are a lot of stats to say that he's been the best hitter in baseball, to the point that it seems almost pre-ordained that he will win the American League MVP award.
He is a ridiculous -5000 consensus A.L. MVP favorite on Oddschecker US, and many other sportsbooks see him as an even stronger favorite. DraftKings Sportsbook lists him at -6000. FanDuel Sportsbook has him at -8000 to win A.L. MVP, and even has a separate betting section dedicated just to Judge.
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Judge is hitting at a pace that is almost unheard of in this era of baseball, and it has many asking if he can end the season hitting .400? Let's dive into the odds:
Can Aaron Judge hit .400 throughout the season?
Short answer, no. At least according to DraftKings and FanDuel.
Aaron Judge to have a .400+ Batting Average in Regular Season 2025 is +5000 on FanDuel, and Aaron Judge Regular Season Batting Average of .400+ is +7500 on DraftKings.
If you are a Judge .400 believer, you should head over to DraftKings Sportsbook for better odds, but just know these are long-shot bets.
There's a reason it's been 84 years since Ted Williams hit .400. Hitting a baseball is hard enough as it is, doing it four out of every 10 times is even more difficult, and doing it against today's MLB pitchers is basically impossible.
Tony Gwynn and George Brett both reached the .390 mark, but that has been the height of hitting in the post-Williams era.
Two years ago, Luis Arraez entered the second half of the 2023 season batting .383, and it looked like he had an outside shot to flirt with .400 down the stretch. But that didn't happen, as he finished that season with a .354 batting average.
While Judge is as good a candidate as any to capture the elusive .400 batting average and etch his name in baseball history, the odds are stacked against him. Maybe he can keep it going as the weather heats up and the ball flies further, but it's still unlikely.
His pursuit of .400 could help him earn another rare baseball accomplishment, however. Judge's hitting brilliance opens the door to him winning the first A.L. Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it in 2012.
Finishing first in batting average shouldn't be an issue for him, barring a massive slump, so that leaves home runs and RBI. Right now, he is one homer behind Raleigh, and his 47 RBI are just behind Rafael Devers (50 RBI). Judge led MLB in both home runs and RBI last year, so he's capable of doing it, and famously hit 62 home runs in 2022, so it's just a matter of him being the best at all three this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists him at +175 to win the A.L. Triple Crown, while Judge not winning it is -240.
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