NBA MVP Odds: Victor Wembanyama Closing Fast on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Final Weeks of Season
The NBA regular season has just a few weeks left, but Wemby is charging towards SGA in the MVP race. Does he have a chance to steal it in the final weeks, or will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defend his title? Peter Alexis breaks down the 2026 NBA MVP odds as March comes to a close.
Peter Alexis - March 30, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA MVP Odds: Can Wemby Catch SGA in Final Days of 2026 MVP Race?
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the NBA MVP race has narrowed into what is essentially a two-man battle. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the favorite at -260, but Victor Wembanyama has made a serious late push and now sits at +250, much closer than he was a month ago. The rest of the board has fallen away, with Luka Doncic the only other name even remotely in view at +2000.
That says everything about how dominant these two have been. Gilgeous-Alexander has spent basically the entire season in front, trying to repeat after winning the award last year, while Wembanyama has forced his way into the conversation with a monster two-way finish and a Spurs team that keeps winning. The question now is whether SGA did enough over the first five months to hold off the late charge, or whether Wembanyama’s closing surge can steal the award at the finish line.
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NBA MVP Odds
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NBA MVP Odds Breakdown
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-260) Check out these best MVP odds at bet365 Sportsbook
Gilgeous-Alexander still has the cleanest MVP case because he is the best player on the best team. Oklahoma City is 59-16, has won 14 of its last 15 games, and still sits on top of the Western Conference. SGA is averaging 31.3 points per game, and his consistency has been absurd, extending his streak of 20-point games to an NBA-record 135 straight with another 30-point outing against the Knicks on Sunday.
The best argument for SGA is that he has never really let the race drift. He has combined elite scoring with team dominance from opening night through late March, and voters usually reward that kind of wire-to-wire control. Even with Wembanyama charging, it is still hard to ignore the combination of top seed, elite defense around him, and the fact that Oklahoma City has looked like a true powerhouse all season with SGA as its closer and engine.
Victor Wembanyama (+250) Check out these best MVP odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Wembanyama has made this race much more interesting because his finish has been impossible to ignore. San Antonio is now 56-18, just 2.5 games behind Oklahoma City, and the Spurs have surged into the playoffs behind Wembanyama’s defensive dominance and all-around brilliance. He has climbed to the top of some recent MVP ladders, and his case is built not just on scoring, but on transforming the entire identity of a contender on both ends of the floor.
The strongest argument for Wemby is that nobody in the league impacts a game quite like he does defensively. He is averaging nearly four blocks per game, just posted 26 points, 15 rebounds, five blocks, and four assists in only 26 minutes against Miami, and has become the centerpiece of one of the league’s biggest defensive turnarounds. If voters decide the final two weeks should matter most and want to reward the player with the highest ceiling on both ends, he absolutely has a path to stealing this award.
Luka Doncic (+2000) Check out these best MVP odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Doncic is the distant third option at this point, and the odds reflect that. Individually, his numbers are outrageous. He is leading the NBA in scoring at 33.7 points per game while adding 7.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists, and he has helped push the Lakers to 48-26 and third in the West. That is an MVP-caliber stat line in most seasons.
The problem is that this race has already solidified around SGA and Wembanyama. Doncic has the stats, but he does not have the same momentum in the market or the same narrative control with two weeks left. At +2000, he feels more like an outside longshot than a real challenger unless both leaders stumble badly in the final stretch.
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