NBA Most Improved Player Odds: Jalen Duren, Nickeil Alexander-Walker Locked in Dead Heat in Final Weeks
The NBA regular season is wrapping up, but the Most Improved Player race is coming down to the wire. Jalen Duren has the Pistons playing exceptional defense, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker has found a new role in Atlanta. Peter Alexis analyzes where the NBA Most Improved Player award is leaning towards in 2026.
Peter Alexis - March 31, 2026, 10:50 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA Most Improved Player Odds: Jalen Duren, Nickeil Alexander-Walker Battling for Top Spot Down the Stretch
With two weeks left in the regular season, the NBA Most Improved Player race has narrowed into a true two-man battle. Jalen Duren is the slight favorite at -110, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker is right behind at +105, making this one of the tightest award markets on the board. The price tells the story. Duren has the edge because he has been a major piece on the East-leading Pistons, while Alexander-Walker has surged late after finding a much bigger role and much bigger production in Atlanta.
There is also a third name worth mentioning, even if he likely falls short. Deni Avdija at +1800 has taken a clear leap in Portland and put together a season that deserves real respect, but this award now feels like it belongs to one of the two leaders. Duren has the team success and year-over-year jump in a featured role, while Alexander-Walker has the cleaner breakout narrative after moving teams and exploding statistically in a way few saw coming.
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NBA Most Improved Player Odds
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NBA Most Improved Player Odds Breakdown
Jalen Duren (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Duren’s case starts with both production and team context. Last season, he averaged just 4.8 points per game. This season, he is up to 19.3 points and 10.6 rebounds while shooting 64.2% from the field, a massive offensive jump for a young center who has grown into a true frontcourt force. More importantly, he has done it for a Detroit team that is now 54-21 and in first place in the East, a huge step up from where the Pistons had been in recent seasons.
The team success matters here. Detroit has become one of the best defensive teams in the conference, and Duren has been a huge part of that identity with his rebounding, interior finishing, and presence around the rim. He is not just putting up empty numbers on a bad team. He is producing winning basketball for a No. 1 seed, and that is usually the kind of profile that closes these awards.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker (+105) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Alexander-Walker has the strongest pure improvement story in the race. Last season with Minnesota, he averaged 9.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in a smaller offensive role. This year in Atlanta, he has jumped to 20.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, while shooting 45.0% from the field and 39.1% from three. He has essentially doubled his scoring, doubled his steals, and become a much more central piece of an offense that now depends on him.
His late-season surge is a huge reason this race is so close. Since March 1, Alexander-Walker has averaged 23.1 points and 3.5 made threes per game, and Atlanta has climbed into the No. 6 spot in the East at 43-33. That combination of role expansion, efficiency, and a new team context makes him a very live challenger here. If voters focus more on individual leap than team standing, he has a real shot to steal this award late.
Deni Avdija (+1800) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Avdija is going to fall short, but he deserves mention because his growth in Portland has been very real. He is averaging 23.8 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 6.7 assists for the Trail Blazers this season, and over his last 11 games he has been around 21.5 points, 6.9 assists, and 6.4 rebounds. That is major all-around production for a player who has taken on much more responsibility.
The problem is that Portland is just 38-38 and ninth in the West, and the market has clearly decided this race belongs to Duren or Alexander-Walker. Avdija has made a big leap, but he does not have the combination of breakout narrative and team success needed to catch the top two with so little time left.
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