NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Keldon Johnson Holds Slim Lead Over Jaime Jaquez in 6th Man of Year Race
The NBA Sixth Man of the Year race has just two weeks remaining, and Keldon Johnson will hope to nail down the award over Jaime Jaquez and Reed Sheppard. Peter Alexis analyzes the final showdown as NBA Award season is in full swing to end March.
Peter Alexis - March 31, 2026, 11:05 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds: Keldon Johnson Maintains Narrow Lead over Jaime Jaquez Jr. in 6th Man Race
With two weeks left in the regular season, the NBA Sixth Man of the Year race has tightened into a real two-man fight. Keldon Johnson is the slight favorite at -200, but Jaime Jaquez Jr. is right there at +320, which means this is far from finished if either player closes strong over the final stretch. The market still leans Johnson because of his consistency off the bench for a surging San Antonio team, but the gap is not large enough to call this safe.
That makes the final two weeks critical. Johnson has the cleaner team-success case with the Spurs sitting at 58-18 and riding a nine-game winning streak, while Jaquez has quietly built a strong all-around season in Miami and continues to put up useful numbers in a bigger offensive role. Reed Sheppard at +1500 remains an outside name to watch, but this award now feels overwhelmingly likely to land with Johnson or Jaquez.
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NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds
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NBA Sixth Man of the Year Odds Breakdown
Keldon Johnson (-200) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Johnson’s case starts with his reliability. He is averaging 13.1 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 53.2% from the field, and he has now recorded 50 games with double-digit points off the bench this season. That kind of steady second-unit scoring has mattered a lot for a Spurs team that has caught fire late and turned into one of the league’s best stories. He is not just putting up numbers in empty minutes. He is helping drive wins for one of the NBA’s hottest teams.
The year-over-year jump is not massive on paper, but the role and impact are. Last season Johnson averaged 12.7 points and 4.8 rebounds, so this year’s production has come with better efficiency and stronger bench value on a much better team. Add in San Antonio’s 24-2 record since February and the fact that Johnson has become one of the steadiest scoring outlets in that rotation, and it is easy to see why he still sits on top of this market.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+320) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaquez has made this race interesting because his leap has been easier to see statistically. The Miami wing is averaging 14.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, which is a big rise from last season, when he was more of a complementary piece at roughly 8.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. He has become a much more trusted offensive creator, and that broader role is the main reason he is still very live in this race.
The issue for Jaquez is team context. Miami is just 39-35 and recently slipped in the East, even though Jaquez continues to produce, including a 20-point outing against Cleveland on Friday. He has the cleaner improvement narrative than Johnson, but Johnson has the edge in team success and late-season momentum. If voters focus most on individual growth, Jaquez has a case. If they lean toward impact on winning, Johnson likely stays in front.
Reed Sheppard (+1500) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Sheppard is the distant third option, but he deserves a quick mention because he has shown real spark in Houston’s second unit. He is averaging 13.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and he had a strong late-February stretch that included 28 points against Sacramento and 20 points against Orlando, showing the kind of microwave scoring that can pop in this award conversation.
Still, at +1500, he feels more like a longshot than a serious threat. Houston has gotten good production from him, but the market has clearly settled on Johnson and Jaquez as the two players most likely to win it. Sheppard is probably running out of time unless he completely explodes over the final two weeks.
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