March Madness Bubble Watch & Bracketology, Will Ohio State, Xavier, or UNC Make NCAA Tournament?

It's conference tournament time, and for a handful of teams, it's win or go home. With just five days remaining until Selection Sunday, this is the last chance to prove yourself to the committee, and team's like Ohio State, Xavier, and UNC know how critical this final stretch is.

Only one program in that trio is currently favored to make March Madness, according to the latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. What does each group have to do this week to hear their name called in the NCAA Tournament Selection Show? Let's discuss matchups and analyze their paths to the NCAA Tournament.

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March Madness Bubble Watch Odds

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March Madness Bubble Watch

1. Ohio State To Make the NCAA Tournament +154 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Let's talk Ohio State first, with the Buckeyes currently listed as "Last Team In" per ESPN Bracketology. While the experts think they are sliding in, FanDuel Sportsbook would beg to differ a bit. They are +154 to make it, and -205 to miss it, so a 67% chance of no tournament for the Buckeyes. They have lost four of their last six games in the Big Ten, and to not so great opponents. They don't have the strongest case, but they aren't out yet.

Of course, those odds would change dramatically with them winning a few Big Ten games. First up is a battle with Iowa this evening, and they enter as a 5.5-point favorite. Even as a -220 on the moneyline, the books still don't know if that's enough for them with a win, and it might not be. The next game would be a battle with Illinois, and it will be a tough one to pull off tomorrow. The Fighting Illini have bounced back from their late-season losing streak to win three in a row, and they aren't messing around. If Ohio State were to upset them, they'd be in the field for sure. But with a loss there, it's anyone's guess if they can slide in, and will depend on other bubble teams and bid-stealers.

2. UNC To Make the NCAA Tournament +410 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Now for the most intriguing team in the market, the North Carolina Tar Heels. They are the second team out according to the latest Bracketology, sitting behind Boise State and Ohio State. The Sportsbooks do NOT like their chances of making it, and it's abundantly clear in the new odds of +410 for Yes and -660 for No. That is 87% implied odds of them not making it, and it's getting uglier by the day.

They are just +110 last week before facing off with Duke in Chapel Hill, yet as a 10.5 point underdog. The books were certainly holding out on the chance that they did win that, and while they were competitive early in the second half, they ending up falling apart and not even covering the spread. That pessimism translated into their updated odds, because now they probably have to win three games in the ACC Tournament to even sniff Selection Sunday.

First stop is against Notre Dame this afternoon, where they check in as a 9.5-point favorite. If they can take care of business there, hope is still alive. Next would be a meeting with the 4-seeded Wake Forest Demon Deacons tomorrow. They already lost two Wake by two this year, and would need to get revenge to keep their season alive. Our projections may have them slightly favored by four points or so in that rematch, and they'd have to string these two wins together to stay in the game.

If RJ Davis and the Heels are able to survive those first two games, it comes down to a likely rematch with Duke for the third time. It's unfortunate that they are in the top-half of the bracket, because if they were down with Clemson or Louisville at the bottom, the chances would be much higher. Duke is having a generationally strong run this season, and look nearly unbeatable. Carolina doesn't really have the firepower to outplay them, it would have to hinge on Duke playing one of their weaker games of the season. If UNC was down on the other side, potentially winning a third game against Clemson or Louisville and taking them to the ACC Championship Game would probably earn them a tournament spot. But now, without beating Duke, they probably can't get there. They are +2800 to win the entire ACC Tournament, so by those odds, it wouldn't be necessary for them to win every game compared to the +410 YES option. All hopes will hinge on Friday's rematch with the Blue Devils if they can make it that far.

3. Xavier To Make the NCAA Tournament -230 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Last but definitely not least, we have the Xavier Musketeers, who appear to be solidly in the field as of now. We discussed them last week at -115 odds, talking about their physical energy, powerful rebounding ability, and current win streak. A 22-point blowout against Creighton certainly helped their case, and we see them at -230 odds now to make the field.

They may have a poor Quad 1 record like many of these bubble teams at 2-8, but they are playing their best basketball right now as winners of seven in a row. The committee historically rewards the hottest teams to get the final spots, and they'll get the nod over a reeling team like Ohio State, unless the Buckeyes go deep in their own tournament.

We see them as +2.5 underdogs against Marquette tomorrow afternoon at Madison Square Garden. These two teams have played the closest-possible games so far this year, with Xavier winning by two on the road and losing by two at home. The line is expecting more of the same tomorrow, but it's important to note their -230 odds to make March Madness despite being +120 tomorrow. A win would obviously lock them into the field, but they certainly can still get in with a close loss. That would depend more on other teams leapfrogging them, and they'd have to root for an early tournament exit from Ohio State and North Carolina on this list, as well as a few other bubble teams like Boise State, Texas, and Indiana, just to be sure.

Can any of these teams make the Final Four if they slide into the Field? Check out the latest March Madness Final Four Odds