March Madness Upset Watch: 4 Teams Predicted to Get Upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
March Madness Upset Watch: 4 Teams Predicted to Get Upset in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament
March Madness is set to tip-off for the Round of 64 matchups on Thursday and Friday, meaning it's time for the annual upset watch. In this article, NCAAM handicapper Matt MacKay shares his insights and predictions on which high seeds in the 2025 NCAA Tournament profile for an early exit, placing them on the unsavory upset watch list.
We've seen every seeded team beat a higher-ranked opponent throughout the history of March Madness. Oddsmakers don't have many low-seeded teams favored in the Round of 64. This means we should expect a lot of chaos and carnage during Thursday and Friday's games.
NCAAM handicapper Matt MacKay is here to offer his analysis on which highly seeded teams should be on upset watch during the Round of 64. Check out Matt's X account for further NCAAB betting insights and free bets.
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March Madness Upset Watch
No.3 Wisconsin Badgers (-2400)
This may be recency bias based on the outcome of the Big Ten Final, but the East Region's 3-seed, the Wisconsin Badgers, have a tough matchup in the Round of 64 against No. 14 Montana. The Grizzlies just won the Big Sky and rank 64th in offensive rating (112.7) and 10th in the nation for true shooting percentage (59.8%) this season.
The Grizzlies are overshadowed in terms of rebounding, with Wisconsin ranked 118th in total rebound percentage. However, Montana is red-hot on offense and won't back down from a challenge, especially against a Badgers team that just saw its star guard, John Tonje, get shut down after dominating in the earlier rounds of the Big Ten Tournament.
Wisconsin ranks seventh for total three pointers attempted (994) this season. They live and die by the three-point shot. We saw them fail to convert from beyond the arc against Michigan. If this happens against Montana, it's going to be difficult to stop the Grizzlies from scoring on the other end of the court.
Click here for complete Montana vs. Wisconsin Odds
No. 4 Texas A&M (-315)
Texas A&M is the 4 seed in the South region and will face the best team out of the Ivy League, No. 13 Yale, in the First Round on Thursday night. The Bulldogs are a perennial powerhouse and have a veteran guard, John Poulakidas, who knows what it takes to perform well in the Big Dance.
Yale ranks 12th in the country in total offensive rating (118.5) and 48th in true shooting percentage. The Aggies are 321st in true shooting percentage (51.7%) and 133rd in offensive rating. Texas A&M's best asset is its rebounding, ranked sixth at 56.3% for total rebounding percentage. However, Yale is right behind them at 15th (55.1%) in this metric.
The SEC was the best conference in men's college basketball this season. Yet, Yale won't be a pushover and will make Texas A&M work hard on the defensive end. I could definitely see the Bulldogs pulling off their second straight First Round upset as a 13-seed once again, just like they did during a 78-76 win over No. 4 Auburn in 2024.
Click here for complete Yale vs. Texas A&M Odds
No. 5 Memphis (+110)
Memphis has had a fantastic season thus far. Unfortunately, the Tigers are running into a buzzsaw against 12th-seeded Colorado State in the West Region.
The Rams are on fire right now, winning 10 straight games, including a dominant performance as an underdog against Boise State to win the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State ranks 72nd in offensive rating (112.2) and 24th in true shooting percentage (59.2%) in 2025.
Memphis is 75th in true shooting percentage and 91st in offensive rating, both below the Rams. When it comes to rebounding, Colorado State also holds the edge, ranked 88th in total rebound percentage (52.4%), compared to the Tigers at 105th (52.1%).
I wouldn't want to back a higher seeded team like Memphis going up against the Rams right now. The Tigers have also won eight straight games, while only losing twice since January. However, they are going to have an uphill battle against Colorado State's offense, led by G Nique Clifford.
It's important to note that Memphis is actually a +2.5 underdog here as well, despite being the 5-seed. They are likely to be without star guard Tyrese Hunter after he suffered a foot/ankle injury in the AAC Tournament, further hindering their chances here.
Click here for complete Colorado State vs. Memphis Odds
No. 3 Kentucky (-600)
Kentucky is a very volatile team that looks like it can beat any opponent when its offense is clicking. The Wildcats are the 3 seed in the Midwest Region and will face 14-seed Troy in the First Round on Friday night.
The Trojans won the Sun Belt and have not lost since February 20th. Troy has won six straight games and dominated the Sun Belt Tournament from start to finish, leaning on their defense.
Troy ranks 24th in defensive rating (97.0) while Kentucky is 19th in offensive rating (117.0) this season. We'll see which one trumps the other in this First Round matchup.
Kentucky's defense is pedestrian at best, ranked 240th in defensive rating (106.8), meaning Troy will have opportunities to score and keep up in a potential low-scoring game. The Trojans rank 30th in total rebound percentage, while the Wildcats are 88th in this metric.
Kentucky is 21st in true shooting percentage (59.2%), versus Troy sitting at 193rd (54.5%) this year. The edge undoubtedly goes to the Wildcats' offense, yet they will be tested early in this game by Troy's defense.
I could see Kentucky getting shut out for several minutes in both halves, allowing Troy to hang around and potentially play spoiler. The Trojans haven't played in March Madness since 2017, losing by 18 points to Duke in the First Round. They have a chance to get their program's first-ever March Madness win and I expect this game to be a dogfight down the stretch.
Click here for complete Troy vs. Kentucky Odds
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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.