2025 NCAA Tournament South Region Preview: Auburn, Michigan State Path to Championship

When the selection committee released the 2025 March Madness bracket, I was immediately in awe of the South Region.

The South Region has the No. 1 overall team in the Auburn Tigers. But it also has Michigan State, Iowa State, and many teams with high-quality coaches.

We've got Bruce Pearl, Tom Izzo, Shaka Smart, T.J. Otzelberger, Chris Beard, Dusty May, Buzz Williams, Richard Pitino, Pat Kelsey, and many more.

It's a ridiculous region, filled with talented coaches and terrific players.

Below, I'll discuss how I think the South Region will play out.

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Who Can Make Noise In The South?

1. Auburn Tigers

The Auburn Tigers are the favorites in this region despite losing three of their last four games. After March 1, Auburn was 27-2 and 15-1 in the SEC.

Now they're 28-5 overall and lost three SEC games, including one in the SEC Tournament. That didn't stop the committee from giving Auburn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

However, that may prevent some from picking Auburn to win the NCAA Tournament, let alone the South Region.

Auburn still ranks second in college basketball in adjusted offensive efficiency. On defense, they've also limited teams to a 46% effective field goal percentage.

However, Auburn has fouled at a very high rate and has allowed 30.3% of offensive rebounds on defense. If anything, the defense could let Auburn down. Sure, they've held opponents to 29.2% from three and 47.2% from inside the arc. But that does no good if Auburn continues to foul and lose out on the glass.

As the last two weeks showed, Auburn is beatable.

2. Michigan State Spartans

The Michigan State Spartans have only lost one game since February 15. That one loss was in the Big Ten Tournament against Wisconsin.

The Spartans have been excellent defensively, holding teams to a 46.1% effective field goal percentage. They've also limited teams to 24.6% of offensive rebounds and have allowed fewer foul shots per game this season than Auburn.

That said. Michigan State hasn't shot it well from downtown and has allowed 8% of non-steal turnovers on offense this season.

The Spartans aren't perfect, either. But at least Michigan State has gained 35.3% of offensive rebounds with a high free throw rate.

Michigan State doesn't have Auburn's star power, but if Michigan State faced Auburn in the Elite Eight, I'd likely choose Michigan State.

South Region First Round Matchups

8. Louisville vs. 9. Creighton

The Louisville Cardinals were given an eight-seed after finishing the regular season ranked inside the Top 10 in the AP Poll. However, they were hosed and now have to face the Creighton Bluejays in the first round.

Ultimately, I like Louisville to escape Creighton, but I think it's unfair that the Cardinals have to play Creighton in the first round and then take on Auburn in the next round.

That said, if the Cardinals beat Creighton, they will play in Lexington, Kentucky,, for the first two games of the Tournament. Louisville will have a larger fanbase than any other team in the South in the first weekend. Nobody would be shocked if the Cardinals stunned Auburn in the second round.

5. Michigan vs. 12. UC San Diego

Meanwhile, the Michigan Wolverines will battle UC San Diego in the 5-12 matchup in this region. Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament but lost its final three games of the regular season prior. Having Dusty May as head coach will be helpful in a tournament setting. However, UC San Diego hasn't lost since January 18. They've got one of the most balanced teams in the country and will be a popular upset pick in Round 1.

I don't think either team gets further than the Sweet 16.

4. Texas A&M vs. 13. Yale

The Yale Bulldogs have shot an effective field goal percentage of 54.8% and will face the Texas A&M Aggies, who have added just a 47.5% effective field goal percentage.

Yale is the much better offense. That said, Texas A&M usually dominates the offensive glass. But now they're facing a Yale team that ranks 22nd in college basketball in allowing offensive rebounds. Yale has given up only 25.8% of offensive rebounds.

I like Yale to move on and defeat Texas A&M. Yale is another team that likely won't get beyond the Sweet 16. I have them losing in the Round of 32 game.

6. Ole Miss vs. 11. San Diego State or North Carolina

There has been much talk about how North Carolina is undeserving of a Tournament bid this year. I like them to prove the doubters wrong. They'd have to knock off San Diego State tonight. Then, they'd face Ole Miss, a team that has lost five of its last eight games.

Look out for the Tar Heels. The media wants you to think North Carolina stinks. That's far from the truth.

3. Iowa State vs. 14. Lipscomb

The Iowa State Cyclones won't have Keshon Gilbert for this NCAA Tournament run, but they are still one of the most balanced teams in the country. They're going to be a difficult out. It's just that without Gilbert, it's hard to trust Iowa State deeper into the tournament against elite squads.

7. Marquette vs. 10. New Mexico

Fading the Mountain West is usually a good strategy in the NCAA Tournament. I like Marquette to get to the Round of 32 but then lose to Michigan State.

In addition, I've got Michigan State coming out of the South bracket to reach Tom Izzo's ninth Final Four.