Big 12 March Madness Preview: How Many Wins Can Big 12 Teams Rack Up In March Madness?

The Big 12 has seven teams in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, extending its streak of qualifying at least six programs from its conference to 11 years. Houston is the only 1 seed in March Madness, replacing Kansas as the preseason favorite due to their hard-nosed defense under head coach Kelvin Sampson.

NCAAM handicapper Matt MacKay is back to offer his analysis on all seven of the Big 12 programs' outlook in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. He'll finish with a prediction of the total number of wins these Big 12 teams will record while competing in the Big Dance. Check out Matt's X account for further NCAAB betting insights and free bets throughout March Madness.

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Big 12 March Madness Preview: Team Overviews

Houston has the lowest odds of any 1 seed to win the NCAA Tournament National Championship at +600. The Cougars rank 21st in offensive rating and second in defensive rating this season.

Texas Tech (+3100), Iowa State (+3500), and Arizona (+4500) are the next three favorites to win the National Championship out of the Big 12. The Red Raiders have a fantastic offense and solid defense, while overcoming nagging injuries to key starters. Arizona challenged Houston during the Big 12 Tournament Final and have plenty of offensive talent, led by G Caleb Love. Iowa State has an elite defense but can score buckets, averaging 80.4 points per game this season.

After these four Big 12 teams, there's a significant drop off in the futures market. BYU is +11000, followed by Kansas (+11000) and Baylor (+21000) as the big longshot title contenders from this conference.

I like BYU a lot and think oddsmakers are undervaluing the Cougars. I could see BYU beating No. 11 VCU and No. 3 Wisconsin to advance to the Sweet 16. They'd then face No. 2 Alabama most likely, offering a soft defensive matchup to exploit.

Kansas was a big disappointment this season but they still have elite players like C Hunter Dickinson and G Zeke Mayo. Plus, head coach Bill Self has plenty of experience and success in March. The Jayhawks are a seven-seed in the West Region and face No. 10 Arkansas in the First Round.

Baylor's got a fantastic two-way player and scorer in G V.J. Edgecombe, who could lead the Bears to a First Round win over No. 9 Mississippi State in the East Region.

Big 12 Teams Total Wins in March Madness (Over/Under 11.5 Total Wins)

Oddsmakers have set the Big 12 teams total wins line at 11.5. Getting 12 wins out of seven programs seems feasible at face value. However, let's calculate how realistic it is for 12 or more wins to be recorded amongst seven Big 12 schools.

Houston has one loss, against Texas Tech, since November 30th. The Cougars could potentially run into challenges against No. 5 Clemson and No. 2 Tennessee to spoil their Final Four bid. No. 3 Kentucky also lurks in this region.

The Cougars should be able to get at least three, if not four wins. I think Texas Tech can get to the Sweet 16 through UNC Wilmington and either Missouri or Drake. However, Arizona may lose to No. 13 Akron or No. 5 Oregon.

Iowa State could get upset by No. 6 Ole Miss in the 2nd Round, running into a Rebels offense ranked 107th in offensive rating (110.5). Kansas and Baylor may not make it out of the First Round, drawing tough matchups against Arkansas and Mississippi State.

Then, we have BYU. It all comes down to BYU in my opinion. The Cougars rank 16th in offensive rating (117.3) and score 81 points per game. If they get at least two wins, combined with Houston winning all four of its regional matchups, we're halfway to 11.5 total wins.

I don't have much faith in Arizona, Baylor, Iowa State, or Kansas to roll in the tournament. We may see a collective one to three wins between these four teams. That brings us to a maximum of 10 wins.

Then, Texas Tech would have to beat Missouri, then St. John's to make the Elite Eight. I think the Red Raiders have enough talent on offense, yet their starters have missed time in the latter half of the season, which concerns me quite a bit.

Houston needs to get to the National Championship game to feel comfortable about going over 11.5 total Big 12 wins. I don't think they'll do against any of the other potential 1 or 2 seeds that wind up in the Final Four.

This may come close to hitting at 10 or 11 wins. However, the Big 12 won't get to over 11.5 total wins, especially with half of their seven teams potentially facing a First or Second Round exit.

Big 12 Teams Total March Madness Wins

• Pick: Under 11.5 Total Wins (-115) Click here to bet this at BetMGM Sportsbook