March Madness Recap: Biggest Surprises of the 2025 NCAA Tournament So Far

The first two rounds of the 2025 NCAA Tournament are in the books and we were gifted some quality matchups and entertaining finishes. A buzzer-beater shot by Maryland's freshman C Derik Queen over Colorado State on Sunday night to advance to the Sweet 16 was the most memorable moment. Queen drilled a fade-away bank shot against the red-hot Rams as time expired.

The Big Ten and SEC have dominated March Madness. The Big 12 also has had a strong showing, with four out of seven schools advancing to play in the Sweet 16. No mid-majors punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 this year. The back-to-back defending champion UConn Huskies were eliminated by No. 1 Florida in the Round of 32 on Sunday afternoon.

NCAAB handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his biggest surprises in March Madness ahead of the Sweet 16 tipping off later this week. Follow Matt's X account for more NCAAB betting insight and free picks during the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

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March Madness Recap: Biggest Surprises

Chalk Dominance

There's no doubt that this year's March Madness has seen most of the betting favorites dominate their opponents through the first two rounds. Yes, a few upsets happened, like 12-seed McNeese State beating 5-seed Clemson in the First Round and 2-seed St. John's losing to Arkansas in the Round of 32. Ultimately, there was a lot less chaos and mayhem that we've grown accustomed to watching during previous NCAA Tournaments.

This could be attributed to NIL deals. With more money being awarded to college basketball's top players, roster formation and talent can be accrued by schools with bigger pockets. None of the 1-4 seeds lost in the First Round and all four 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16.

No Mid-Major Success

In college basketball, teams that are not in a Power 4 conference, or the Big East, are defined as a mid-major program if they are a Division I program. In previous NCAA Tournaments, there were at least a couple of mid-major teams that made it out of the first weekend and advanced to the Sweet 16.

Colorado State and New Mexico, both representative of the Mountain West conference, were close to delivering mid-major success in the Round of 32. The Lobos faded away in the second half against 2-seed Michigan State after their First Round upset over 7-seed Marquette. The Rams drilled a go-ahead three-point shot with less than 10 seconds left. Yet, they gave up the game-winning shot to Maryland at the buzzer to fall short of a Sweet 16 bid.

Gonzaga gave 1-seed Houston a late scare but couldn't close out their Round of 32 matchup with a win. McNeese State got routed by 4-seed Purdue, 11-seed Drake failed to hang with 3-seed Texas Tech in the 2nd half.

Big Ten Exceeding Expectations

Oddsmakers previously set the Big Ten's NCAA Tournament Win Total to 11.5 with eight teams qualifying for the First Round. The Big Ten went 8-0 in the First Round, while four teams won the Round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16.

Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, and Maryland remain in contention for a National Championship. The Wolverines upset 4-seed Texas A&M with an explosive second half in the Round of 32, while Michigan State and Maryland survived as marginal favorites against a pair of Mountain West teams.

Purdue was doubted by many against mid-major programs like High Point and McNeese State. The Boilermakers silenced critics with two solid games, owning the glass and scoring at will inside the paint, advancing into a Sweet 16 matchup against 1-seed Houston with relative ease.

Illinois, Wisconsin, Oregon, and UCLA were all dealt losses in the Round of 32. The Badgers and Ducks came the closest to winning their matchups but fell late to Big 12 opponents, BYU and Arizona.

SEC Mediocrity

The SEC had a record-breaking 14 schools make this year's NCAA Tournament, which prompted oddsmakers to set their total wins line at 19.5. Seven SEC teams have made it to the Sweet 16, so we're inching closer to going over 19.5 total wins.

Despite half of the SEC teams who made the tournament winning their first two games, it's been far from a dominant display of basketball. The Gators nearly lost to 8-seed UConn in the Round of 32, pulling away in the final few minutes from the defending champions despite being a double-digit favorite.

Alabama struggled against 15-seed Robert Morris for most of their First Round matchup. 1-seed Auburn looked vulnerable against 16-seed Alabama State and 9-seed Creighton early, before elevating their play in the 2nd half.

Arkansas has looked great against tough opponents like Kansas and St. John's. Head coach John Calipari's Razorbacks have drawn a matchup against 3-seed Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.

Kentucky and Tennessee will face off again in the Sweet 16 as the only head-to-head SEC matchup in this round. The Wildcats were a higher seed but valued as an underdog against Illinois, so their Round of 32 win still warrants credit. The Volunteers have cruised against 15-seed Wofford and 7-seed UCLA, blending clutch scoring with smothering defense. Kentucky is 2-0 SU against Tennessee this season.

Finally, the biggest surprise from the SEC has been 6-seed Ole Miss. The Rebels beat a red-hot UNC offense in the First Round and kept their momentum going in a blowout win against 3-seed Iowa State in the Round of 32.

The SEC has 14 wins and needs six more victories from their final seven teams to hit over 19.5 total wins. Kentucky and Tennessee will eliminate one SEC program.

I predict Michigan to upset Auburn, Ole Miss to lose to Michigan State, and Alabama to fall in another upset against BYU. If this happens, the Big Ten or Big 12 will become the best conference in contention for the National Championship.