Cincinnati NCAA Tournament Odds: How Many Big 12 Tournament Wins do Bearcats Need to Make March Madness?
The Cincinnati Bearcats didn't do themselves any favors with a late regular season loss to TCU, but they still have a chance to go on a mini run in the Big 12 Tournament and play their way into March Madness. How many games do they need to win to get off the bubble? Peter Alexis breaks down Cincinnati's NCAA Tournament odds ahead of Tuesday's opener with Utah.
Peter Alexis - March 10, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadCincinnati NCAA Tournament Odds: Can Bearcats Go Deep in Big 12 Tournament, Steal March Madness Bid?
The Cincinnati Bearcats enter the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and their path to March Madness will almost certainly require a deep conference tournament run. After a 73-63 loss at TCU in the regular-season finale, Cincinnati slipped from a favorable seed into the No. 9 position in the Big 12 bracket, making their road significantly more difficult.
Betting markets reflect the uphill climb ahead. Cincinnati is currently +240 to make the NCAA Tournament, meaning oddsmakers see them as an underdog to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. That number reflects both their bubble status and the difficult stretch of games they likely need to win in Kansas City to strengthen their résumé.
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Utah vs. Cincinnati Odds
Utah vs. Cincinnati Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, March 10th, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click here for complete Utah vs. Cincinnati Odds
Cincinnati NCAA Tournament Odds
Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Yes | +240 | 29.4% |
No | -330 | 76.7% |
Cincinnati NCAA Tournament Scenarios
First Test: Utah on Tuesday
Cincinnati’s tournament begins Tuesday afternoon against No. 16 seed Utah, a matchup where the Bearcats are heavy favorites. Sportsbooks currently list Cincinnati as a -10.5 point favorite with a -550 moneyline, showing the significant gap between the two teams.
However, this game alone won’t move the needle much for the Bearcats’ tournament hopes. Utah sits well outside the NCAA Tournament picture with a NET ranking of 132, meaning a win would likely be viewed as simply taking care of business rather than adding a meaningful résumé boost.
Cincinnati will still need strong performances from Baba Miller and Moustapha Thiam, who struggled in the regular-season finale against TCU. The Bearcats have struggled whenever those two fail to score in double figures, making their offensive production critical to any postseason run.
Second Round: UCF Rematch on Wednesday
If Cincinnati advances past Utah, they would likely face No. 8 seed UCF on Wednesday, a much more meaningful bubble matchup.
The Bearcats split the regular-season series with the Knights, losing by one point in January but winning by 20 in February. That more recent result suggests Cincinnati may hold the advantage, and projections indicate they would likely be around a 2.5-point favorite on a neutral court.
Even with two wins in Kansas City, Cincinnati may still be slightly outside the tournament field, meaning the Bearcats likely need at least one more marquee victory to fully convince the selection committee.
Third Game: The Arizona Buzzsaw on Thursday
That third game would likely come against top-seeded Arizona, and that’s where the Bearcats’ tournament hopes become significantly more complicated.
Arizona projects as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Cincinnati would likely be around a 13.5-point underdog in that matchup. The Wildcats’ pace, athleticism, and depth create a difficult stylistic matchup for Cincinnati, which struggled in their only meeting earlier this season.
That matchup came in January, when Arizona beat Cincinnati by 26 points, exposing some of the Bearcats’ defensive limitations against high-tempo offenses.
Cincinnati's Path to March Madness
Cincinnati’s résumé still has one major highlight working in its favor: a road win over Kansas earlier this season, one of the most impressive victories any bubble team can claim.
But after the loss to TCU dropped them into a tougher bracket path, the Bearcats now face a difficult reality. To truly feel safe on Selection Sunday, Cincinnati likely needs at least two wins in the Big 12 Tournament and possibly three.
That means beating Utah, handling UCF, and then potentially pulling off a massive upset against Arizona.
It’s a difficult path, but Cincinnati has already proven this season that it can win big games away from home. If they can channel the same energy they showed in that Kansas victory, the Bearcats still have a realistic shot to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.
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