March Madness Bubble Watch: Latest Odds to Make NCAA Tournament - Friday, March 13th Conference Tournaments
With just two days left to prove their worth to the selection committee, March Madness hopefuls are putting on their best effort in Friday's conference tournament games. Can teams like Oklahoma, San Diego State, and others force their way into the NCAA Tournament Field of 68? Peter Alexis breaks down the latest March Madness Bubble Watch for Friday, March 13th games.
Peter Alexis - March 13, 2026, 11:45 AM EDT
5 Minute ReadMarch Madness Bubble Watch: Will Texas, Oklahoma, San Diego State Make NCAA Tournament in Conference Tournament Action?
With Selection Sunday fast approaching, the NCAA Tournament bubble picture is coming into focus as conference tournaments reach their most important rounds. As of Friday, March 13, many leagues are playing quarterfinal and semifinal games, giving the final group of bubble teams one last chance to strengthen their résumés before the bracket is finalized.
Some teams have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments and must now wait anxiously for the selection committee, while others still control their own destiny with critical games this weekend. At the same time, the possibility of bid thieves looms large, with teams like Oklahoma or a Mountain West contender capable of stealing an automatic bid and shrinking the number of available at-large spots.
Below is a breakdown of the key bubble teams, their current odds to make the NCAA Tournament, and where they stand heading into the final weekend.
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Odds to Make NCAA Tournament
Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Santa Clara | -1400 | 93.3% |
Miami (OH) | -600 | 85.7% |
Missouri | -380 | 79.2% |
SMU | -220 | 68.8% |
VCU | -210 | 67.7% |
Texas | -140 | 58.3% |
Oklahoma | +195 | 33.9% |
San Diego State | +220 | 31.3% |
Auburn | +240 | 29.4% |
New Mexico | +250 | 28.6% |
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch Breakdown
Santa Clara (-1400) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Santa Clara appears to be the safest bubble team remaining. The Broncos are -1400 to make the tournament (93.3% implied probability) after reaching the WCC Championship Game, where they ultimately fell to Gonzaga.
Even with the loss, Santa Clara’s résumé likely secured the West Coast Conference a second bid. Their strong late-season run and key win over Saint Mary’s earlier in the tournament should be enough to place them comfortably in the field, likely around the No. 10 or No. 11 seed line.
Miami (OH) (-600) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Miami (Ohio) remains one of the most fascinating bubble cases in years. The RedHawks are -600 to make the tournament (85.7%) after their perfect season ended Thursday in the MAC Tournament.
Despite playing the 303rd-ranked strength of schedule, Miami finished 31-1, and historically teams with that type of record are not left out of the NCAA Tournament. Even though the MAC rarely receives multiple bids, it would be extremely surprising if the committee excluded a one-loss team.
Missouri (-380) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Missouri currently sits -380 to make the tournament (79.2%), placing them on the safer side of the bubble despite a recent slide.
The Tigers lost their SEC Tournament opener to Kentucky but still own a solid résumé with multiple important SEC wins and five Quadrant 1 victories. Missouri should remain safely inside the field, likely around a 10 or 11 seed, unless multiple surprise conference champions dramatically reshape the bracket.
SMU (-220) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
SMU enters Selection Weekend at -220 to make the tournament (68.8%), but the Mustangs are far less comfortable than they once were.
After losing four of their final five regular-season games, SMU managed to defeat Syracuse in the ACC Tournament before falling to Louisville. That result left their résumé right on the cut line. The Mustangs are likely in the field for now, but they are vulnerable if multiple bid thieves emerge across other conferences.
VCU (-210) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
VCU still has an opportunity to solidify its position. The Rams are -210 to make the tournament (67.7%) and face Duquesne as an 8.5-point favorite in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals.
A win would put VCU in a strong position to secure an at-large bid. However, if the Rams lose, they could quickly fall into last-team-in territory, leaving them dependent on results elsewhere across the bubble.
Texas (-140) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Texas may be the most uncomfortable team currently projected inside the field. The Longhorns are -140 to make the tournament (58.3%) after a damaging SEC Tournament loss to Ole Miss as a 7.5-point favorite.
Despite owning six Quadrant 1 wins, Texas now has no additional chances to improve its résumé. The Longhorns must now wait and hope that teams like Oklahoma or the Mountain West contenders do not steal additional bids.
Oklahoma (+195) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Oklahoma has emerged as one of the most dangerous teams on the bubble. The Sooners are +195 to make the tournament (33.9%) but still have a massive opportunity ahead.
They have won eight of their last ten games, including a dominant win over Texas A&M, and now face Arkansas in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals as +7.5 underdogs. If Oklahoma pulls off that upset, it could dramatically improve their résumé and potentially secure an NCAA Tournament bid.
San Diego State (+220) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
San Diego State remains alive in the Mountain West Tournament and currently sits +220 to make the tournament (31.3%).
The Aztecs face New Mexico tonight in a semifinal matchup, with San Diego State listed as a -2.5 favorite. Because the Mountain West is unlikely to receive multiple at-large bids, the winner of this matchup will likely need to beat Utah State in the championship game to guarantee a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Auburn (+240) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
Auburn’s tournament hopes took a massive hit after a brutal collapse against Tennessee. The Tigers are now +240 to make the tournament (29.4%).
Auburn led most of that SEC Tournament game before allowing a huge late run to lose. The Tigers have now lost nine of their last twelve games, and a résumé featuring 16 losses would be historically weak for an at-large selection. Even with the nation’s toughest strength of schedule, Auburn likely played itself out of the field.
New Mexico (+250) Click here to see these March Madness Bubble odds on FanDuel Sportsbook
New Mexico rounds out the bubble group at +250 to make the tournament (28.6%).
The Lobos remain alive in the Mountain West Tournament but face the same problem as San Diego State. Their semifinal matchup between the two teams effectively acts as a play-in game for NCAA Tournament consideration, and even the winner may need to defeat Utah State in the championship game to secure the conference’s automatic bid.
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