Will Auburn Make NCAA Tournament? - Final Bubble Watch Odds Ahead of Selection Sunday
The Auburn Tigers blew a late lead to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament earlier this week, and will now need a miracle to get in the NCAA Tournament. Peter Alexis breaks down their slim chances to make March Madness ahead of Selection Sunday.
Peter Alexis - March 15, 2026, 5:35 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadAuburn NCAA Tournament Odds: Tigers Need a Miracle to Make Field of 68
Auburn’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament have fallen dramatically heading into Selection Sunday. The Tigers are now +400 to make the tournament (20.0% implied probability) after their season effectively ended with a devastating collapse against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. Earlier in the week Auburn still had a realistic path into the field, but that loss appears to have pushed the Tigers almost entirely off the bubble.
The late defeat against the Volunteers was especially damaging because Auburn controlled the game for most of the afternoon before surrendering a massive closing run. With the Tigers now sitting at 16-16 overall and 7-11 in SEC play, the résumé simply does not compare favorably with most other teams competing for the final at-large spots.
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Auburn NCAA Tournament Odds
Outcome | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Yes | +400 | 20% |
No | -550 | 84.6% |
Auburn NCAA Tournament Odds Breakdown
A Resume Built Almost Entirely on Strength of Schedule
Auburn’s case has always revolved around one major factor: its No. 1 strength of schedule in the country.
The Tigers scheduled aggressively in nonconference play, facing elite teams such as Houston, Michigan, and Arizona early in the season. While Auburn lost those games, the schedule boosted the program’s metrics and kept the Tigers on the bubble longer than their record might otherwise justify.
There are also a few notable wins on the résumé, including victories over NC State and St. John’s, which helped keep Auburn in the conversation earlier in the year. But outside of those results, the profile remains thin compared with most other bubble teams.
Late-Season Collapse Sealed Their Fate
The biggest issue for Auburn has been the team’s form down the stretch.
The Tigers closed the season losing nine of their final twelve games, including damaging losses to Mississippi State, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss. Those defeats left Auburn entering the SEC Tournament needing a strong run to rebuild its case.
Instead, the opposite happened. After winning their opening game, the Tigers blew a late lead against Tennessee, allowing a huge closing run that ended their season and likely their NCAA Tournament hopes as well.
A Long Shot for Selection Sunday
At this stage, Auburn appears to be one of the longest shots among major-conference bubble teams. With +400 odds and only a 20% implied probability, the Tigers would likely need a significant surprise from the selection committee to sneak into the field.
Historically, teams with 16 losses rarely receive at-large bids, and Auburn’s late-season collapse makes the résumé even harder to justify. While the strength of schedule provides a small argument in their favor, the Tigers now appear to need nothing short of a miracle on Selection Sunday to hear their name called.
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