Texas NCAA Tournament Odds: Longhorns Favored to Make March Madness After No Bid Thieves

The Texas Longhorns remain one of the most closely watched teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble as Selection Sunday approaches. Texas is now -330 to make the tournament (76.7% implied probability) after several key results across conference tournaments broke in its favor over the weekend. Earlier in the week the Longhorns were priced around -140, but the outlook has improved significantly after potential bid thieves like Dayton and Wichita State failed to steal automatic bids.

That shift has given Texas a much clearer path into the field, even after a disappointing performance in the SEC Tournament. The Longhorns were eliminated early by Ole Miss as 7.5-point favorites, a loss that severely damaged their résumé at the time. Despite that setback, the chaos around the bubble ultimately helped Texas maintain its position just inside the projected field.

Looking for advanced AI predictions and props to enhance your CBB betting? Try out oddschecker+ now on this limited time 7-day free trial!

Texas NCAA Tournament Odds

Texas NCAA Tournament Odds Breakdown

Texas’ case for the NCAA Tournament largely revolves around its ability to compete with high-level opponents throughout the season. The Longhorns finished the year with six Quadrant 1 wins, a number that compares favorably to several other teams currently projected inside the field.

That strength has kept Texas afloat even after a late-season slump that saw the team lose five of its final six games. While the recent form is concerning, the selection committee tends to value quality wins over timing alone, and Texas’ résumé still stacks up well against several other bubble teams.

SEC Tournament Early Exit Hurt the Case

The biggest concern for Texas remains its early exit from the SEC Tournament.

The Longhorns had an opportunity to strengthen their position but instead fell to Ole Miss in the opening round, a game in which they entered as 7.5-point favorites. That loss eliminated Texas’ final chance to add another quality win and forced the program to rely on outside results to maintain its tournament standing.

Fortunately for Texas, many of those results broke their way. Several potential bid thieves across smaller conferences were eliminated, allowing the Longhorns to remain above the cut line.

First Four Trip to Dayton Likely

At this point, most projections expect Texas to land among the last teams included in the bracket.

That likely means the Longhorns will be placed on the No. 11 seed line in the First Four, sending them to Dayton for a play-in game. Teams in that position typically represent the final at-large selections in the tournament field, making Texas’ path to the NCAA Tournament extremely narrow but still favorable.

Selection Sunday Outlook

While nothing is guaranteed until the bracket is announced, Texas now appears to be in a strong position compared to earlier in the week. With 76.7% implied odds to make the field, the Longhorns are expected to sneak into the tournament despite their late stumble.

If that projection holds, Texas will likely begin its March Madness journey in Dayton, needing one more win to officially reach the Round of 64.

More College Basketball Odds

• Click here for complete CBB Odds
• Looking for more CBB bets, check out our latest expert picks
• Can Duke win it all after a blowing their chance in the Final Four? See the full National Championship Odds