College Football Playoff Predictions: We Predict Every CFP First-Round Game
College Football Playoff Predictions: We Predict Every CFP First-Round Game
The college football regular season and Championship Weekend have officially ended, so we're ready for College Football Playoff predictions and analysis with the field decided. Championship Weekend was everything we wanted and more, as we saw almost every major conference's title game come down to the wire, except for Iowa State, which got its teeth kicked in during the Big 12 Championship.
With all the conference championships decided, we finally got to see the final version of the College Football Playoff rankings, as decided by the committee, and they didn't disappoint. The final rankings are:
- Oregon (Big Ten Champion)
- Georgia (SEC Champion)
- Boise State (Mountain West Champion)
- Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- SMU
- Clemson (ACC Champion)
There was only really one spot up for grabs when all was said and done, and that was the No. 11 seed. It basically came down to three-loss Alabama, who didn't play in the SEC title, or one-loss SMU, who played in the ACC Championship and lost by a field goal but didn't play the caliber of opponent that Bama did throughout the year.
In the end, the committee decided to value the success of SMU against some inferior opponents and left the Tide on the outside looking in for the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
If Championship Weekend was any indication, we are in for an absolutely thrilling weekend of College Football on December 20 and 21. But, who is going to win? We've got complete breakdowns for all four first-round games and answer for which team will be moving on and which will be going home empty-handed.
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College Football National Championship Odds
College Football Playoff Predictions - CFP Predictions for Round 1
No. 10 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
- Date: Friday, December 20
- Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
- Point Spread: Notre Dame -7
If you're a college football fan in the state of Indiana, this is your Super Bowl. More likely, you're a converted IU basketball fan who just heard you guys have a football program or an out-of-state Notre Dame fan who just roots for them because you're Irish Catholic, but that's neither here nor there. We've got an absolute barn burner in the Hoosier state to kick off the College Football Playoff.
I want to pick Indiana here. I think Notre Dame has been largely untested and we've already seen that the Irish can stumble at home against worse teams. However, my lasting impression of the Hoosiers is watching them struggle to move the ball against Ohio State in Columbus. this game being in South Bend won't do the Hoosiers any favors and I think the talent on the Notre Dame defense will be too much for Kurtis Rourke and company to overcome. Notre Dame's defense will keep the Hoosiers locked up and the offense will do enough to pull away in the second half.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 17
No. 11 SMU vs. No. 6 Penn State
- Date: Saturday, December 21
- Time: Noon ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
- Point Spread: Penn State -8.5
If you're Penn State, you're sending a Christmas card to the College Football Playoff committee for how they seeded you and your potential opponents. In Round 1, you get to host an SMU team in Happy Valley that still doesn't have a quality win on their schedule. Then, if you win, you get a Boise State team whose best win this season was a three-point loss to Oregon.
With all that on the table, I still don't think Penn State will run away with this thing. SMU proved last week they belong, losing to Clemson on a last-second 56-yard field goal. Penn State's offense looked awesome in the loss to Oregon, but its defense left a lot to be desired. Penn State advances, but I like SMU to cover the 8.5-point spread.
SMU vs. Penn State Prediction: Penn State 30, SMU 24
No. 12 Clemson vs. No. 5 Texas
- Date: Saturday, December 21
- Time: 4:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: TNT
- Point Spread: Texas -10.5
The problem with Clemson being in the College Football Playoff is they're a bad football team. Cade Klubnik is not a good enough QB to go into Austin and lead the Tigers to a win over one of the most complete sqauds in the country. This is the biggest spread of opening weekend and I don't think Clemson even comes close to covering.
I have my own questions about Quinn Ewers and just how legit he actually is, but I know for a fact that when he steps on the field he will be the best QB in this game. This is a Clemson defense that gave up 31 points to SMU just a week ago, I'm not entirely sure how they're going to go into Austin and cover Matthew Golden, Isaiah Bond and DeAndre Moore. Texas wins this one running away.
Clemson vs. Texas Prediction: Texas 40, Clemson 21
No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Ohio State
- Date: Saturday, December 21
- Time: 8:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
- Point Spread: Ohio State -7.5
The only thing that could have gone worse for the Buckeyes in their first-round seeding in the College Football Playoff would have been having to play on the road. Tennessee is a nightmare matchup for the Buckeyes and I think the Volunteers go into Columbus and beat OSU.
Ohio State is perhaps the most talented team in the entire country. However, thanks to a myriad of injuries on the offensive line, they cannot protect the passer. Against Michigan, this was abundantly clear as Will Howard had to force throws all game long. Ohio State's elite-tier wide receivers make no difference in games when they can't get the ball because the QB is being assaulted.
Now, enter the Tennessee defensive line, which is likely the best in the entire country. Just ask Georgia how good this unit is. James Pearce Jr. and the rest of the Tennessee rotation are going to make life extremely difficult for a bad OSU offensive line and I'm picking the Vols to get the win.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction: Tennessee 20, Ohio State 13