College Football Playoff Odds: Sportsbooks Expect No. 1 Ohio State to Miss Playoffs Entirely
The College Football Playoff Rankings have Ohio State listed in the top spot with only a few weeks remaining. So why do Sportsbooks have the Buckeyes sitting at plus odds to just make the playoff? Let's take a look at the latest odds.
Peter Alexis - November 8, 2023, 12:15 PM EST
8 minCollege Football Playoff Odds: Sportsbooks Expect No. 1 Ohio State to Miss Playoffs Entirely
The College Football Playoff Rankings were released for Week 2 on ESPN last night, and it is safe to say there is some controversy in the rankings.
Ohio State came in at the top of the rankings for the second consecutive week, breaking from the AP Poll that has Georgia at No. 1 overall. But despite the strong vote of confidence from the College Football Playoff Committee, the oddsmakers do not share the same optimism.
OSU currently has the fifth-best odds to make the playoffs, and are underdogs at +110 to get the job done. They haven't lost yet this year, surviving a scare against Notre Dame on the road. But if they are unable to take down Michigan in their classic rivalry battle to end the regular season, the odds are not in their favor.
Let's take a look at the latest College Football Playoff odds after the Week 2 rankings release, and see what needs to happen for Ohio State to find their way into playoffs for a second year in a row.
College Football Playoff Odds
Team | College Football Playoff Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
Florida State | -325 | 76.5% |
Georgia | -250 | 71.4% |
Michigan | -165 | 62.3% |
Oregon | -115 | 53.5% |
Ohio State | +110 | 47.6% |
Texas | +130 | 43.5% |
Washington | +145 | 40.8% |
Alabama | +250 | 28.6% |
Penn State | +900 | 10% |
College Football Playoff Odds - Florida State (-325)
The Florida State Seminoles lead the pack in the odds breakdown, but are only ranked in the fourth spot by the latest rankings. FSU has the shortest odds to make the playoff as of right now, largely thanks to their remaining schedule.
They have an implied chance over 75% to make the playoff for the second time ever, after participating in the inaugural matchup in 2014. Their remaining games include the floundering Miami Hurricanes, a cakewalk against North Alabama, and a rivalry meeting against the struggling Florida Gators.
If the Seminoles take care of business in those contests, they will be arriving in the ACC Championship game for a likely date with Louisville. FSU should be a solid favorite in each of those contests, and without any hiccups, they will walk into the playoff.
College Football Playoff Odds - Georgia (-250)
The Georgia Bulldogs are the top team in the AP Poll, and haven't lost a regular season game since 2020. They have won two straight national championships, and are hot on their quest for a third.
After last week's victory against Missouri, they have essentially secured their spot in the SEC Championship game, somewhere they've ended up in five of the last six years. They are expecting to meet the Alabama Crimson Tide, who should win their last three games to qualify.
Georgia is also the only team on this list with security, as a close loss is unlikely to disqualify them. They have two top-15 clashes remaining against Ole Miss (-10.5) and Tennessee (-8.5), the second of which is on the road. If they were to succumb to a one-possession loss in either game, they are still likely to find themselves in the SEC title game, and will easily enter the playoff with a win.
With all of that structure built around Kirby Smart's undefeated squad, the Dawgs are in control of their own destiny, and have outside help if needed to fall back on. That's why Georgia has the second-best odds to make the playoff, and a strong 71.4% chance that would need a total collapse to fall through.
College Football Playoff Odds - Michigan (-165)
Michigan is a slight favorite to make the playoffs, and are ranked in the third spot. This one makes a decent amount of sense, as their season essentially boils down to three games. Their odds of -165 give them a 62.5% chance to make the playoffs, better than their rival Ohio State at just under 50%.
The Wolverines are currently 9-0, and have looked like a well-oiled machine through the first three quarters of the season. They are the top-ranked defense in the country in both points per game (6.7) and yards per game (231.4), and haven't allowed more than 13 in a game this year. In fact, they are the only team with less than 10 ppg allowed.
But their season really begins on Saturday afternoon, when they travel to Happy Valley to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in a top-10 showdown. The one-loss Nittany Lions fell only to Ohio State, and have been impressive on both sides of the ball this year. Michigan will need to continue to dominate against them, and will follow that up with a battle against Ohio State to close the season.
The Wolverines are favored by a touchdown on the road at Penn State, and are a field goal favorite when they host the Buckeyes on November 25. If they win both of those, they will return to the Big Ten championship game and look to make it a three-peat.
Besides these two to three challenging matchups for the Wolverines, they also face a massive sign-stealing scandal that has rocked college football. They have been accused of breaking dozens of serious protocols, and have a black cloud hanging over the program and head coach Jim Harbaugh. Will the noise get too loud for this adversity-ridden team? Monitor the energy levels of the Wolverines over the next few weeks as they attempt to return to the playoff.
College Football Playoff Odds - Oregon (-115)
The Oregon Ducks have the best odds for a one-loss team, even surpassing several undefeated teams. Why is Oregon ahead of Ohio State and Washington? Let's take a look at their team and resume to explain that.
The Ducks are 8-1 on the year, and have looked impressive to say the least. Their only loss came on a missed field goal on the road in a top-10 showdown with still undefeated Washington. They controlled the pace for most of the game, but ultimately fell short after the Huskies staged a late rally.
The College Football Playoff rankings value not only the record, but who you played and how you beat them. Oregon is certainly racking up style points for their methods of victory, as they have beat the brakes off the majority of their opponents so far.
Additionally in the Pac-12, the now-dissolving league did away with divisions several years ago, so the top-two teams will go head to head in the conference championship. That means Oregon controls their own destiny to reach the game.
The Ducks have a chance to all but secure their spot in the game with a win over the Trojans this week, and would certainly make the playoff if they were able to take down Washington in a rematch. Washington's odds are back at +145, partially because the books will likely favor Oregon over them in the second meeting at a neutral site, and partially because of Washington's difficult remaining schedule of two top-15 opponents.
Keep an eye on the Pac-12 clashes down the stretch, as these odds will go flying if one team drops a game before the championship rematch.
College Football Playoff Odds - Ohio State (+110)
Ohio State comes in at the bottom of this list, despite sitting in the first spot of the College Football Playoff rankings. They are ranked in the third spot of the AP Top 25, with both rankings expecting them to go on to a playoff spot.
In order to get there for a second-straight year, they will have to unseat their rival on the road. Michigan is the big blue barrier that stands in their way, and unlike a year ago, a loss will not allow them to sneak in. The current pack of one-loss teams waiting behind the top-4 in the rankings are rabid and waiting for their chance to grab a spot.
Alabama, Texas, or Oregon as a one-loss conference champion would easily climb over the Buckeyes in the event of a loss to Michigan. Not only would OSU suffer a loss, but they would be nixed from a Big Ten Championship appearance for the third straight year, preventing them from completing their resume. Unless all three of those other teams lost, the Buckeyes would be doomed without a Big Ten title.
Early odds for "The Game" have Ohio State as a slight underdog for the first time in over a decade against the Wolverines. Michigan is listed as a -2.5 home favorite according to DraftKings. The Wolverines have beaten the Buckeyes two years in a row, after OSU won 15 out of 16 meetings in a dominant period. Can the Buckeyes stop the skid and pull the upset? Keep a close focus on OSU and Michigan as these odds will shift in the lead up to that game, especially if any other top teams lose around them over the next few weeks.
College Football Odds
