College Football Playoff Predictions, Projections: Which Teams Will Make the 12-Team Field?

After months and months of speculation, we made it. Championship Weekend in college football is in the books. We know our five conference champions will make the field (unless the committee decides they want to throw Army into the mix).

We saw Cam Skattebo and Arizona State prove they belong in the field. We saw Texas get beat by the Dawgs for a second time this season, this time with a backup QB. And we saw Oregon put a stamp on this season and prove once and for all that they are the best team in the country right now.

But we don't know who will play in the opening rounds, which teams will earn a bye, or which team will grab that coveted 12th seed. With so much still up in the air, I'm breaking down my College Football Playoff predictions and projections ahead of this week's final rankings release.

Get oddschecker+ right now for just $9.99 per month. Don't miss out on this December deal!

College Football National Championship Odds

College Football Playoff Predictions - Top-12 Seed Projections

1. Oregon (Big Ten Champion)

If there is one spot on this list that is set in stone, it's Oregon as the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks came into this week as the only unbeaten team in the country and holding the top spot. Dillon Gabriel and crew took on a tough Penn State team and looked like the much better team on Saturday night. I will give Penn State credit on the offensive side, but the Oregon offense (mainly Tez Johnson) was just too much for the Nittany Lions. Oregon, as Big Ten champs in their first year in the conference, will have the opening week off and play the winner of the 8 vs. 9 matchup in the quarterfinals.

2. Georgia (SEC Champion)

Georgia took care of business on Saturday night in the SEC Championship, beating the Texas Longhorns in overtime and booking their first-round bye in the College Football Playoff. On the one hand, good for the Dawgs, playing the toughest schedule in the country and still finishing the season ranked No. 2. On the other hand, it looks like they'll be making their playoff run without starting QB Carson Beck. Beck took a hard hit to his throwing elbow on the final play of the first half and was replaced for the rest of the game by backup QB Gunner Stockton. Stockton led the Dawgs to a come-from-behind OT win but was himself removed from the game for a head injury on the final play of the game, which Beck returned for to deliver the game-winning handoff. All this is to say that Georgia will be the No. 2 team in the country for the CFP but they'll have a lot to overcome if they're going to make a run at the National Championship. Their CFP Quarterfinal matchup is against the winner of the 7 vs. 10 game.

3. Arizona State (Big 12 Champion)

You could make an argument that Arizona State was the most impressive team on Championship Weekend as they absolutely demolished Iowa State, 45-19. The Sun Devils were just one-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship but RB Cam Skattebo was completely unstoppable for the Sun Devils, as he ran for 170 yards and 2 TDs on just 16 carries to keep ASU ahead for the whole game. Is Arizona State the third-best team in the country? No. Are they even a top-12 team? Debatable. However, they will likely be one of the four highest-rated conference champs in the country, so they have earned a bye in the 12-team CFP format. There is an argument to be made that Boise State should hold the No. 3 spot, but I think their lackluster win over UNLV opened the door for ASU to jump them and earn the No. 3 seed. In this CFP prediction, the Sun Devils would play the winner of the 6 vs. 11 matchup in the quarterfinals.

4. Boise State (Mountain West Champion)

Boise State booked their trip to the College Football Playoffs on Friday with a 21-7 win over UNLV in the Mountain West Championship. The Broncos have looked great this entire season, led by Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, but they looked a bit one-dimensional against UNLV. If Jeanty isn't breaking off long runs or dominating in the ground game, QB Maddus Madsen doesn't have the weapons around him to make defenses pay, and that showed on Friday. I think the committee will see this and rank the Broncos No. 4 after watching Arizona State look so impressive in their win. Either way, this means the Boise State Broncos have earned a first-round bye in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, something pretty much no one was predicting before the season. Based on my College Football Playoff prediction and projection, Boise State would play the winner of the 5 vs. 12 matchup in the CFP Quarterfinals. Whether or not they can make a run depends on whether or not the team they play can stop Jeanty.

5. Texas

Just about everything that could go right for Texas went right for Texas and they still ended up losing to Georgia, 22-19, in overtime of the SEC Championship game. The good news is that they finished the season with just two losses and both came to the No. 2 team in the country. The bad news is they still haven't proven that they can beat good teams, even when they are playing them without their starting QB. Honestly, Quinn Ewers has struggled to play consistently well all season long and I think it's holding this team back. The former all-world recruit put up the yards needed to win, but he also threw two interceptions, including a brutal one with under 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Either way, I think Texas gets the nod as the top-ranked non-champion and locks in the No. 5 seed. In this scenario, that means Texas would host SMU in the opening round of the CFP, which would be a great game for the state of Texas to kick things off with.

6. Ohio State

Okay, let's dive into it. I'll start this off by saying I'm no Ohio State fan and think their loss to Michigan is one of the more embarrassing (and objectively hilarious) things we've seen in the sport this season. HOWEVER, Ohio State beat Penn State head to head, in Happy Valley, in a game that Penn State didn't even score an offensive TD. Then, Penn State took on Oregon at a neutral site, a team OSU lost to by 1 in Autzen, and lost by eight. When two teams are this closely matched up, head-to-head and mutual opponents have to matter, so I think Ohio State will get the nod as the No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff. That means they're the top-seeded team to not play for a conference title. That also means they have a first-round showdown against Clemson coming up, which should be a good game between two highly flawed teams. If Ohio State is going to make a run, all they'll need an entirely new offensive line, a new QB, and an offensive coordinator who uses his weapons on the outside. Right now, they stink on that side of the ball but they just may have the best defense in the country.

Get oddschecker+ for just $9.99 this month by cliaming our December Deal!

7. Penn State

Offensively, Penn State proved they can hang with anyone in the country this week, which was a huge question mark for me coming into Championship Weekend. Defensively, they looked totally flawed and outmatched against a high-powered Oregon side, which is not what I expected to see. The issue for Penn State is they lack explosiveness on the outside. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are as good as any one-two backfield punch in the country and Tyler Warren gives them the ability to do just about anything they want between the hashes. The issue is their receiving group and their inability to make plays. If they get behind early against a good team that can stop the run, the Nittany Lions will struggle to get back in the game. The good news for them is that they would match up to play a lackluster Indiana team, in Happy Valley, in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

8. Notre Dame

In a perfect world, I'd be able to leave Notre Dame off this list entirely. They don't play in a conference and they get to hand-pick their entire schedule. Their best win is against an average Texas A&M team and they have one of the worst losses in the entire country, losing at home to a bad Northern Illinois team. When we questioned teams like Texas and Penn State for their lack of quality opponents, they had to get on the field on Championship Weekend and prove they belonged. Notre Dame got to watch from their couch. However, the College Football Playoff committee has proven with their weekly rankings that they aren't going to be as harsh on the Irish as I'd like them to be, so they end up in my No. 8 spot in the College Football Playoff projections. Unfortunately, that means the Fighting Irish will get a home game in the first round of the CFP, hosting a solid Tennessee team in the process. However, even if they win they'll have to go up against Oregon, which would likely end in a lopsided victory for the Ducks.

9. Tennessee

Nico Iamaleava and the rest of the Tennessee Volunteers were off this weekend, watching from home as Georgia and Texas fought over SEC supremacy. I think out of the four teams left in our rankings, they are the one team that could likely make a run. They have a dominant defensive front and an offense that can score in bunches. Josh Heupel has a dangerous squad in Knoxville and I don't think there is a team in the field that wants to play them. But, Tennessee's issue to this point this season has been its consistency. One week they'll look great and beat Alabama. The next week they'll lose to a bad team like Arkansas or struggle to beat Vanderbilt. You don't entirely know what version of the Vols you're going to get, but they can hang with anyone and that's scary at No. 9.

10. Indiana

Indiana, whose best win is probably a home victory against a 7-5 Michigan team, is firmly in my College Football Playoff projection. My issue with Indiana is we've seen them play precisely one good team this season and they looked overmatched for the entire four quarters. However, they have beaten everyone they are supposed to beat and they've done it in convincing fashion, so they earned a spot. Indiana's best weapon is head coach Curt Cignetti as he's proven to be one of the best leaders in the entire country. What's interesting about Indiana being No. 10 is that they would have a first-round matchup against Penn State in Happy Valley, which would result in frat bros from the northeast descending on State College in numbers we've never seen before. This IU team has earned a spot in the CFP and I think a draw against a Big Ten team is about as good of a result as they could ask for.

11. Clemson (ACC Champion)

Thanks to Kyle McCord and Syracuse's Week 14 heroics against Miami, the Clemson Tigers find themselves in the College Football Playoff despite three regular-season losses. After shooting out to a 24-7 halftime lead against SMU in the ACC Championship, the Tigers watched as the Mustangs stormed all the way back and kicked a FG to tie the game at 31 with less than 30 seconds remaining. We looked destined for OT, but a 41-yard kickoff return on the ensuing kick and a lengthy completion by Cade Klubnik before time expired put Clemson is range for a game-winning 56-yard field goal at the buzzer. Dabo Swinney has led his team back to another College Football Playoff berth and I applaud him for his sustained success, but that opening-round game against Ohio State may get ugly for the Tigers. That Ohio State defense is going to feast on that Clemson offense in what could be a great get-right spot for the Buckeyes.

12. SMU

There are really four teams vying for this No. 12 spot in the College Football Playoff. Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and SMU. Technically Miami is also in the mix, but I find it hard to believe you'd include Miami, who didn't play for the ACC title, when SMU did. Between the three SEC teams, I think South Carolina is playing the best football. My vote would be for LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecocks to get a bid, last week I even predicted it, but losses to Ole Miss and Alabama head-to-head make it a hard sell. At halftime of the ACC Championship, I think Alabama was likely salivating at the prospect of SMU getting beat down by Clemson and the Tide getting into the 12-team field. However, I truly believe that the second-half effort from SMU was enough to get them into the CFP. The question all week was about whether or not SMU belongs on the same field as some of these teams and on Saturday they proved that they do. The Mustangs travel to Austin to play the Longhorns in the opening round of my College Football Playoff predictions.