North Carolina Win Total Odds: Projecting UNC's Success in the Bill Belichick, Jordon Hudson Era
North Carolina football is making headlines due to the recent stories coming out about new head coach Bill Belichick and his girlfriend Jordon Hudson. That got us to thinking about the Tar Heels actually play on the field this season. Will UNC surpass its win total or even win the ACC? Mark Harris takes a look at the latest UNC win total odds in the early offseason.
Mark Harris
| 5 min
North Carolina Win Total Odds: Projecting UNC's Success in the Bill Belichick, Jordon Hudson Era
It is the dead of the college football offseason, and yet, North Carolina football is one of the biggest stories in the country.
First-year UNC head coach Bill Belichick isn't making news for the Tar Heels' incoming transfer portal additions, rather for his recent CBS Mornings interview that was interrupted by his 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson.
Belichick and Hudson's relationship had raised eyebrows, but it was off to the side until the awkward CBS Mornings interview last Sunday. The media sideshow caused Belichick to release an official statement through UNC.
Or as Hudson would say, "We're not talking about this."
All of this attention has people speculating about the nature of their relationship. Reports have come out about Hudson's vast real estate holdings, but more interestingly, it is clear she has some role within North Carolina football. She was seen patrolling the sidelines at the UNC spring game in April as well, so it's fair to assume she is part of the program.
With all this drama swirling around Tar Heel football, it has me wondering it will affect the team this fall. UNC was already going to be in the spotlight with Belichick as head coach, but Hudson's reported involvement adds even more intrigue to a unique situation.
Will North Carolina finish over or under its win total? Can the Tar Heels win the ACC in Belichick's first season? I'll go through the odds below
North Carolina Win Total Odds
UNC Season Odds | Odds |
|---|---|
Over 7.5 Total Wins | -106 |
Under 7.5 Total Wins | -114 |
UNC to Win ACC | +2000 |
Click here for the latest UNC Win Total Odds
North Carolina Season Prediction
North Carolina is expected to go 7-5 or 8-4 in 2025. For reference, the Tar Heels finished the 2024 regular season at 6-6 in the last year under Mack Brown.
UNC lost first-round running back Omarion Hampton, along with many other players, as Belichick and his new coaching staff have re-shuffled the roster. I'm not going to go through every new transfer portal addition, aside from new QB Gio Lopez, who transferred in from South Alabama. Lopez is a dual-threat quarterback who accounted for 25 total touchdowns last season and should provide the Tar Heel offense a high floor.
Beyond that, it's also reasonable to assume that Belichick will be smarter than most of the opposing coaches he faces. But that doesn't mean his football chops will directly translate into wins.
He still needs to effectively implement his system into a bunch of college kids, something he hasn't done before. Belichick also went 4-13 in his final season with the New England Patriots, so it's not like the team he is coaching is guaranteed to win. Moreover, if there's this much drama surrounding the program now, that attention could easily seep into the season and cause some level of dysfunction.
But it's also easy to envision him leading UNC to eight or more wins. It's not the toughest schedule and the Tar Heels avoid some of the better teams in the ACC.
Here's my win-loss prediction for North Carolina:
North Carolina Win Total Analysis
Mon, Sept. 1: Vs. TCU - Loss
TCU is a decent program and QB Josh Hoover is pretty good (Tennessee tried to pry him away after all). Plus, head coach Sonny Dykes will be motivated to not lose a high-profile opener after losing to Deion Sanders and Colorado two years ago. This is also the first game for Belichick's reconfigured UNC team.
Sat, Sept. 6: At Charlotte - Win
Belichick's first college football road game won't take him far. UNC will take care of business against a Charlotte team that went 5-7 in the Sun Belt last year.
Sat, Sept. 13: Vs. Richmond - Win
The Tar Heels won't struggle against the FCS Richmond Spiders.
Sat, Sept. 20: At UCF - Win
UCF is in total transition after bringing back Scott Frost. By now, Belichick will be more familiar with the college game and the roster will have jelled, so they should take down the Knights.
BYE
Sat, Oct. 4: Vs. Clemson - Loss
This game will surely draw a lot of attention as Clemson is expected to win the ACC once again and contend for a national championship. The Tigers' talent will prove to be too much for UNC.
BYE
Fri, Oct 17: At Cal - Win
A cross-country road trip isn't ideal, but Belichick will have his team prepared coming off a bye. UNC takes down a Cal team that was decimated by the transfer portal.
Sat, Oct 25: Vs. Virginia - Win
Virginia is routinely an ACC bottom-feeder and that trend continues this season. UNC improves to 5-2.
Fri, Oct 31: At Syracuse - Loss
The JMA Wireless Dome has claimed many victims in the past, and it's even more treacherous on a Friday night. Belichick and UNC stumble against Fran Brown and the Syracuse Orange.
Sat, Nov 8: Vs. Stanford - Win
Andrew Luck may be the Stanford general manager, but he ain't suiting up on Saturdays. North Carolina gets back on track.
Sat, Nov 15: At Wake Forest - Win
Wake Forest also has a new coaching staff led by head coach Jake Dickert, and while he's proven to be a competent coach at Washington State, the Demon Deacons won't have enough to take down UNC.
Sat, Nov 22: Vs. Duke - Loss
The Blue Devils quietly won nine games last season, and they appear to have upgraded at QB after paying a hefty sum to Tulane transfer Darian Mensah. Expect this to be another good Duke team and too much for the Tar Heels.
Sat, Nov 29: At NC State - Loss
The North Carolina-NC State rivalry is always a doozy, and the addition of Belichick should only add more spice. NC State has won the last four matchups, and with a more established Power Four quarterback in CJ Bailey, the Wolfpack make it five in a row.
North Carolina Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5 Wins
I have North Carolina going 4-4 in ACC conference play, and that would not be enough to get to the ACC championship game (barring wild tie-breaker scenarios).
If you think I've been too harsh in my UNC win-loss prediction and instead the Tar Heels finish 6-2 in ACC play, for example, then +2000 to win the ACC isn't crazy. Still, even if UNC makes it to the ACC championship game, it would be at a severe talent disadvantage to Clemson, Miami, or SMU.
Hey, they play the games for a reason and Belichick is a football genius, but I would not bet on North Carolina to win the ACC.
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