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NFL Record Predictions: How To Make It Pay With Stats & Data

How to use stats and data to better inform your NFL records predictions
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NFL Record Predictions

Predicting a teams record is one of the most popular type of bets for the NFL. The reason behind this future market’s popularity is because it gives you a long period to enjoy the sweat of the bet.

Before every season there are betting markets about each team’s record, more specifically about their win total. The number estimated by the sportsbooks will change throughout the off-season. The lines are often set after the Super Bowl. Then the numbers could see change around particular periods, including the opening of the free-agency window, the NFL Draft and the beginning of training camps. Season ending injuries to key personnel could also see the estimated win total being moved.

The key to betting on these markets is to successfully predict which moves will impact the team, such as new signings or key losses. It’s also worth considering major moves of other teams in their division, given they will play those teams twice each season, and offer the biggest differential to move the win total.

One recent example to prove the point was Tom Brady’s move to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a free agent. When he left the New England Patriots it saw their predicted win total drop, meanwhile the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were then predicted to win more games, which is unsurprising when they’ve signed the GOAT.

What NFL teams are predicted to go to the Super Bowl?

Which NFL teams are predicted to go to the Super Bowl changes regularly. You can always see which teams are the shortest price with the sportsbooks to go to the Super Bowl, which is a good indicator. You can see the latest odds on our page Super Bowl Winner Betting Odds.

As of right now the current favorites to reach the Super Bowl are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, but because they are both AFC teams they can’t both reach the Super Bowl. In this case we need to see who the favorite NFC team is, which turns out to be the San Francisco 49ers.

By looking at who is favorite to win the Super Bowl now we can see the most likely prediction for the Super Bowl LV in Tampa is actually the Kansas City Chiefs versus the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.

How to predict NFL games

There are many ways to predict NFL games, with no one way being guaranteed to be correct. The best predictions are made by using a number of factors.

It’s important to consider the following factors:

Form – By looking at a team’s recent results you can gauge to some degree of accuracy how well they are doing currently. There are always mitigating factors and exceptions but trends need to be looked at. If a team has lost their last three games then it more than likely indicates that something is wrong with the team and they shouldn’t be backed.

Record – A team’s record gives you the best indication of how their season is doing. If a week ten game is between two teams, one with a 6-3 record and one with 9-0, then you have to assume that the 9-0 is better. Strength of schedule obviously impacts this, so be sure to look at who teams have played and if it’s giving a false impression of their ability.

Where the game is played – Home field advantage is massive in football. The home team has fans on their side and a familiarity with the field and dressing room facilities. Not only that, but the travelling team also has to deal with the difficulties of travelling and staying away from home for a longer period. All of these minor details can create a big difference between teams when combined.

Injury Report – Always check the injury report because injuries make a huge difference. It’s obvious that the Kansas City Chiefs missing Patrick Mahomes would create a huge impact but just as important are some of the less well-known names. If the Chiefs were missing 3 important offensive linemen then it severely impacts Mahomes ability to play at his best. Injury changes can also impact how a team plays and wether they rely on the pass or run.

Previous matchups – By checking how teams have historically played against one another you can see if any coach has an advantage over the other, or if one team has a stylistic advantage that may make them more likely to win.

Weather Conditions – Weather is hugely important in football. When there is heavy rain there is statistically less completed passes per game. Some teams continue to pass and some move to a rushing game, but whichever move, there will be an impact. Weather can impact result but it also has huge impact on other betting markets such as total points and passing yardage.

Rest – Players often say they don’t like Thursday Night Football because there isn’t enough time after last Sunday to recover. This is something to be considered when placing a bet.

Who has the most accurate NFL predictions?

Nobody gets everything right but there are two people you can look on to predict more right than wrong. The sportsbooks themselves, who have millions of dollars riding on every game. Their moneyline odds are usually a fairly reliable metric to predict a result. The other people to trust are the Oddschecker handicappers who spend hours looking at data and trends, to save you time and give you the best, most reliable picks.

How to use statistics to predict football games?

Using stats is key to in football from scouting all the way through to predicting football games. Some teams can pass the ‘eye test’, you know they are good from watching them alone, but it’s key to dig into the numbers and understand why that it is and what dangers other teams offer to them. You can use pass efficiency statistics to see how a quarterback fares against different defenses. You can also look in depth at how each team plays with certain formations and personnel on the field.There are thousands of stats which are all relevant to every game of football, the key is to study as many as possible and use all of that data to make an informed choice. Either that or follow Oddschecker handicappers who do all the hard work for you.

How to predict a player’s yards in the NFL

Predicting a player’s yardage in any game isn’t an exact science but there is data you can look at to help you make a prediction. This depends on whether you are looking to predict a quarterback’s passing yardage, a team or player’s rushing yardage or a wide receiver’s receiving yards.

To predict passing yardage, look at how the QB has done previously, then factor in the strength of the defense, any injuries on the offense or defense, and the defensive scheme.

Receiving yards depend on accurate quarterback play, so start by looking at passing yards, then work out which defensive back is likely to cover the wide receiver and look at their average allowed. You can also find data on how each team fares against each position. You’ll often find that some teams have a scheme which helps them perform well, or leaves them susceptible against certain positions, quite often a tight-end. For example, in 2019 the Arizona Cardinals were the worst team, by a big distance, in defending against tight-ends, this meant you could often predict when a tight-end would put up good yardage, or score a touchdown, against them.

Rushing yardage is one of the easiest to predict. By looking at the average yardage given up to running plays you can see how good a team is at defending the run. Then factor in the runningback’s season averages and work out your prediction from there.

A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA.


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