Tom Brady began the season as one of the frontrunners to be named regular season MVP, with only Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees considered more likely to win the award by sportsbooks.
What a change a week can make. After a difficult debut for the Buccaneers in their opening loss to the Saints, oddsmakers seem to have already lost faith in Brady’s chances of being named the best in the league this season.
His odds on the eve of the season were +1600, which carried an implied probability of 5.88% that he would win the award for the fourth time.
However, some oddsmakers have now pushed that price way out to +3000, demonstrative of their belief that his chances have been cut to just 3.23%.
As a result, Brady has slipped to ninth favorite and is now behind the likes of Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and even Kyler Murray.
Oddschecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Many felt that, given his glittering career in New England, the only way was down once he made him move to Tampa Bay.”
“A season is not defined by one game and it would be folly to write off the greatest that the game has ever seen. However, time waits for no man and more observers than ever will be beginning to think that Brady’s is up.”
“With that said, those who still think Brady has got enough in the tank should now be rushing to place a wager at that price, with the opportunity to win thirty times their stake if he does manage to turn things around.”
(Click to bet)
Patrick Mahomes +400
Lamar Jackson +650
Russell Wilson +700
Drew Brees +2000
Dak Prescott +2200
Aaron Rodgers +2500
Deshaun Watson +2800
Kyler Murray +2800
Tom Brady +1800