Following The Money For Week 1 Bets: Where Has The Money Been Going and How to Capitalize
The NFL season is back, and in Week 1, we already see some interesting trends in the gambling world. Today, we’ll be looking at some percentage of bets and percentage of handle for this week’s games.
Essentially, the percentage of bets will be a percentage of the number of bets coming in, while the handle will look at where the money is actually going. These numbers are relatively close most of the time, but there are a few exceptions to the rule this week.
Here are four of the more interesting deviations that I found this week over at DraftKings.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans Total Over/Under 52.5
The number of bets on the over and the under is pretty close when looking at this game. 54% is coming in on the under while 46 percent is going on the over. However, when you look at the handle, the split is much different. 70% of the handle is on the over.
When deciding on the O/U, know that the Titans were the second-best team at hitting the over while the Cardinals were third-worst. So it’s not surprising that it’s pretty split on the number of bets, but maybe the money is telling you to go with the over.
Denver Broncos -3
This week, the public likes the Broncos, with 58% of the bets going towards Denver being favored by three on the road. It’s not a massive percentage going their way, but it slightly leans towards the Broncos.
That doesn’t hold up when looking at the handle. 77% of the money is on the Broncos to win their Week 1 matchup against the Giants. Both the Giants and Broncos went 9-7 against the spread, so there’s no trend there. It’s odd to see that much variance of the money going towards Denver.
Minnesota Vikings -3.5
Minnesota is favored by 3.5 points this week, and they are getting slightly more than the Bengals, with 55% of the bets coming in on the road favorite. While the bet percentage is close, it’s a landslide when looking at where the money is.
A whopping 81% is on Minnesota to cover. Despite only having four wins, the Bengals went 9-7 ATS while Minnesota went just 6-10 ATS in 2020. I understand it’s a new season, and things have changed, but the confidence in the Vikings is not something I’d feel comfortable with this week.
Houston Texans Moneyline (+155)
Now here is a bet that I can get behind! The majority of the public is betting on the Jaguars, who are -180 on the Moneyline at 68%. However, the handle tells an entirely different story, with 61% of the pot is on the Texans to win outright.
The Texans are 6-0 in the last three years against the Jags and 12-2 dating back to the 2014 season. While they are likely to struggle this year, this is a winnable game for them, and at +155 could be a nice pull for you on Sunday.