Predicting Early NFL Line Movements for Week 2 NFL Odds
In Week 1 of the NFL season, we were caught off guard in some cases. For instance, who had the Packers laying an egg to start the year? Also, you had teams like the Buffalo Bills, who are contenders in the AFC, lose home games by a touchdown. Now, in Week 2, we'll adjust as see fit but what I wanted to do was take a look at some of the opening lines and look for some places that we can see some movement:
Panthers vs. Saints (Saints -3.5)
The Saints put on the performance of a lifetime in Week 1. They beat the Packers 38-3 and downright embarrassed Aaron Rodgers to open the year. Plus, Jameis Winston looked the part in his limited role. He threw for five touchdowns on the game and had a 130.8 rating.
As for Carolina, they beat the Jets at home, but it wasn't any kind of dominant performance. They managed to score just 19 points on their home field to the 26th ranked defense in the NFL last season. Carolina's defense was impressive, but will they have the same performance against Sean Payton's offense? I doubt it.
Considering the performance of each team, I would expect the line to move more in the Saints favor. I understand they're on the road, but when this closes before kickoff, I think we're looking at something closer to 4.5.
Dolphins vs. Bills (Bills -3)
The Bills having a clunker in Week 1 was a bit of a surprise. Josh Allen had a pedestrian day throwing the ball against one of the league's better defenses while Pittsburgh was able to capitalize on a special team's play to steal this game on the road.
Looking at Miami, they were pretty good in their opener. They won a close, low-scoring game 17-16 on the road in New England. Tua Tagaovailoa was okay, but it was the defense creating two turnovers that led to the victory.
When trying to look at what will happen this week, consider where each team was last year. The Bills have much higher expectations, so the line could move a little bit once the money begins to come in on them. I don't anticipate a ton of movement here, but somewhere around Bills -4 on the road sounds right, even coming off of a bad loss at home.
Packers vs. Lions (Packers -10.5)
We mentioned it at the top, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were awful in Week 1. Rodgers threw two interceptions and had a QBR of just 13.4 on the game. After a crazy offseason, the hope was that Rodgers would come in and succeed right away on a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
Now, I know Detroit isn't very good, but they played with some fight against the 49ers. They even came back and covered in what could be one of the worst bad beats of the season.
Either way, do you think there's a chance that people overreact and see the big number for the Packers to cover, and money starts to come in on the Lions? It's possible. I wouldn't feel comfortable with it, but this is an industry that fluctuates week to week, and last week, the Packers were downright awful. I think we're looking at something like Packers -8.5 when this line closes before kickoff. Which if it gets that low, I will hop all over that.