SNF Week 5 Betting Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will reprise hostilities when they collide in Sunday night football. Find out how the NFL odds line up and where the value NFL picks are to be had.
Nikki Adams
Thu, October 7, 7:02 AM EDT

SNF Week 5 Betting Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021

Time: 8:30 PM ET

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Where To Watch: NBC

Kansas City Chiefs Record: 2-2-0, 1-3-0 ATS
Buffalo Bills Record: 3-1-0, 3-1-0 ATS

Click Here For Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills collide in primetime Sunday night football – a game that is being billed as the game of the week by every NFL media outlet and NFL analyst. The last time these two AFC powerhouses met, the Chiefs got the better of the Bills in the AFC Championship game, extending their winning record to 2-0 over the Bills in the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era. 

Josh Allen has made significant strides over the last two seasons, emerging as one of the top NextGen quarterbacks in the game. But his record against some of the league's elite teams is unconvincing, including the Kansas City Chiefs. He has made no secret about his desire to get one finally over Mahomes and the Chiefs. Even vowing that the AFC Championship defeat was "going to fuel us," when he reflected on the outcome immediately after. But saying it is one thing, doing it is another.

So, as the much-anticipated showdown between Allen and Mahomes finally approaches, the question that's knocking around in NFL betting circles is: Is it finally Allen's and the Bills' time to shine?

Arguably, the timing of this matchup couldn't be any better with the Bills catching the Chiefs during a less than stellar period of form. Kansas City is 2-2 SU after its first four games, causing the shine to come off the Chiefs somewhat after losses to the Ravens and Chargers in Week 2 and 3. That sentiment is exemplified in the NFL odds, which tip this game on a delicate point spread, and echoed again by public betting trends, which appear to be leaning towards the Bills. 

Kansas City Chiefs Odds & Overview  

The Chiefs are coming off a commanding 42-30 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, which snapped their two-game losing streak and served Andy Reid with a historic 100th career victory as the Kansas City head coach. 

Mahomes torched the Eagles' defense as he went 24-of-30 for 278 yards and five touchdowns. He did have one interception on the day, but it didn't cost the Chiefs at all. Tyreek Hill was in fine form as he led the receiving corps with 186 yards on 11 receptions and three touchdowns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire scampered for 102 yards while Darrel Williams put up 42 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs' defense had one of its better games, applying constant pressure on Jalen Hurts (sacked three times), but it is not without its issues. The Eagles had two touchdowns overturned by penalties, which made a massive difference to the ultimate scoreline. 

Buffalo Bills Odds & Overview

At the face of it, the Bills are looking really good right now. They overcame a Week 1 wobble against the Steelers to reel off three consecutive wins and reclaim the top spot in the AFC East. In addition, they have a solid 3-1 SU and ATS record, easily putting forward a case for the best team in the division. 

Whether the Bills are amongst the best teams in the AFC, this season remains to be seen. They were last season, but that in of itself doesn't mean that they are going to be the best – or one of the best – this season. 

The issue is the quality of opponents that Buffalo has beaten up to this point. Simply put, they've all been suspect one way or another. The Miami Dolphins, Washington Football Team, or Houston Texans are hardly what anybody would call heavyweights. Both Dolphins and Texans are 1-3 SU on the season, while WFT is 2-2 SU. Moreover, all three teams either started or ended the game with backup quarterbacks.

The Bills haven't been tested by a quality team or a half-decent quarterback. So, the Chiefs will be the first real test of the Bills and their merit. It's one thing to shut out Miami 35-0 and the Texans 40-0 or beat WFT 43-21 when the playing field isn't level. It's another thing to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs on a level playing field.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Bills +130 +2.5 Over 56.5 (-110)
Chiefs -140 -2.5 Under 56.5 (-105)

Click Here For Chiefs vs. Bills Odds

Books went to press with the Kansas City Chiefs tipped as the 3.5-point home chalk, but the line has moved against the hosts since Sunday. As things currently stand, the Chiefs are laying merely 3 points to the Bills. As a result, some shops have gone down to -2.5, which is quite a significant drop in the odds, all things being considered. 

By contrast, the total opened on 56.5 points with multiple sportsbooks, but it has held relatively firm for the most part.

Consensus betting reports show a distinct lean towards the Bills, and this trend is likely partly responsible for the line dwindling to a low of 2,5 points.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Preview and Predictions

If the NFL odds and betting trends were any indications, an upset is on the cards when the Bills take on the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in primetime Sunday night football. The public appears to be riding Buffalo's bandwagon, and that's driving the odds against the Chiefs. But does the public have it right? 

Isn't it just as feasible to expect the Chiefs to come through with a big win over the Bills? The Chiefs might be only 2-2 on the season, but both their losses came against quality opponents in the Ravens and Chargers, and a handful of points decided them. Those games could have easily gone the way of the Chiefs, in which case the betting outlook might have looked different for this game. This experience of adversity should only make the Chiefs more match tough than the Bills, who, let's face it, have coasted to victory since Week 1. 

Of course, the Bills could still win, and Allen's star may yet shine. But the Chiefs should win and come through as the small home chalk to boot.

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