NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 13

NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 13

As we head into Week 14, we rundown through the MVP odds board and analyze the field to find the best bets.

Two Becomes One at the Top

Tom Brady +160

Grab Tom Brady while you still can! The opportunity to bet on Tom Brady to win the 2021 regular season NFL MVP award, while the veteran signal-caller is still trading in plus money on the NFL odds board, is fast fading. 

Only a couple of weeks ago, Brady was trading at double the odds he’s currently on, signalling just how fast this market is moving as the season winds down. Additionally, the gap between Brady and his nearest rivals on the odds board broadened following Week 13. The nearest bet after Brady is Aaron Rodgers at +600 with DraftKings after which Kyler Murray follows at +750. Another week and Brady’s odds may well cross into minus money, sucking most of the value out of his odds.

The 44-year-old phenom leads the league with the most passing yards and touchdowns. He has 3,771 yards and 34 touchdowns to his credit. His nearest rival for passing yards is Derrek Carr with 3,663 passing yards, but the Raiders quarterback’s 17 touchdowns are a far cry off Brady’s 34. Matthew Stafford nips at Brady’s heels with 3,611 yards and 30 touchdowns with ten interceptions, but in the market’s eyes, the Rams quarterback is a bit of a longshot bet to win the MVP.

Brady’s Challengers Aaron Rodgers +600

Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers is tipped as the second-best bet after Brady, but at +600 he’s a good distance off. The Packers enjoyed a Week 13 bye, but not before the 38-year-old played his way inside the top 3 betting favorites following a solid 36-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams. 

During the off week, Rodgers’ odds shortened from +700 to +600. On the face of it, Rodgers (at almost four times Brady’s odds) appears to be a value NFL pick to spot for the MVP award. But statistically, he trails Brady. Rodgers has 2.878 yards and 23 touchdowns with four interceptions

With the Packers and Buccaneers tied on a 9-3 record ahead of Week 14, Rodgers would need an individually standout account against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football to close the gap on Brady’s odds at the close of Week 14 and improve his chances of winning a second-straight MVP honor.

Kyler Murray +750

The Arizona Cardinals lead the NFC with a 10-2-0 record. Murray returned to the starting line-up in Week 13 and led the Cardinals to a 33-22 win over the Bears. On the heels of Sunday’s triumph, Murray’s odds were slashed from +1300 to +750. The third-year quarterback’s stats are decent but they don’t leap off the leader board. He boasts 2,399 yards and 18 touchdowns with seven interceptions in nine games.  

Murray’s three-game absence didn’t affect Arizona’s perch atop the NFC. They went 2-1 in his absence. That in itself may detract from Murray’s odds to win his maiden MVP because it poses the question: How valuable is Murray to the bottom line. If the answer is ambiguous in the least, it calls into question his suitability for the Most Valuable Player award, surely.

On the Fringe

Josh Allen +1000

After the Buffalo Bills were left shell-shocked by the 14-10 loss to the New England Patriots, Allen’s odds to win the MVP went walkabout. From +550 going into Week 13, Allen is now trading at +1000.

Dak Prescott +1200

Dak Prescott’s odds improved slightly from +1400 to +1200 over the last week, but he’s taken a step back in the broad spectrum of this market. Prescott’s strong start to the season had him leading this market at one point, now he’s no better than an also-ran. 

Patrick Mahomes +1400

After a slow start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are back where they belong – at the top of the AFC West. However, their position isn’t secure. But most importantly, the climb to the division’s summit was achieved on the back of improved defending. The Chiefs offense isn’t quite as potent as in years past. 

Matthew Stafford +1600

Matthew Stafford is up there statistically, hobnobbing with Brady on some of the gaudier stats in the field of contenders. However, detracting from Stafford’s odds to win the award are several questionable performances against the league’s contenders. Losses to the Cardinals and Packers for instance are impossible to reconcile with an MVP nod. 

Justin Herbert +1800

Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert is a tasty +1800 bet to win the MVP, but he’s on the fringe of this group of potential hopefuls. Herbert advanced his bid following a 41-22 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. He’s fifth overall in the standings with 3.457 yards and 27 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. 

Falling Off

Lamar Jackson +2500

Lamar Jackson’s odds have taken a massive hit over the last week, a move that coincides with some of his worst offensive outputs since bursting onto the scene. Last week’s 20-19 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t help his cause either. Jackson has 2, 865 passing yards to his credit and 16 touchdowns to 13 interceptions.

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