2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 14

2022 NFL MVP Odds: Power Rankings Heading into Week 14

Week 13 gave us several massive performances from players who have been tied to the 2022 NFL MVP race for most of the 2022 NFL season. Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow topped the list in terms of production, as both third-year quarterbacks led their teams to decisive wins over opponents with a winning record, albeit in a much different fashion. Hurts threw for nearly 400 yards and racked up four total touchdowns in a 35-10 rout against a good Tennessee Titans defense, while Burrow and the Bengals improved to 3-0 against Kansas City in the past calendar year.

San Francisco and Miami were touted as one of the biggest games of the slate but MVP front-runner Tua Tagovailoa failed to maintain his stock, completing 54.5 percent of his pass attempts for 295 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, he also threw two interceptions, while the Dolphins coughed up four total turnovers in a 33-17 loss against the 49ers' red-hot defense. Mahomes remains atop the MVP odds at +125, but the gap has narrowed significantly with Burrow outplaying him in a 27-24 win with star wideout Ja'Marr Chase back in the lineup.

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Here we rank the top 10 MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock tank?

2022 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Power Rankings

1. Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds (+125) Bet $100 to collect $225. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

The past couple of weeks has seen Patrick Mahomes' production take a dip, which has also transferred to his MVP odds. The 2018 MVP winner has only thrown two total touchdowns against the Rams and Bengals while losing 27-24 in Cincinnati to drop his record to 0-3 against Joe Burrow. We haven't seen Mahomes available at plus-odds for a few weeks, so if you want to sprinkle on him at +125, it makes a lot of sense. Mahomes will have a tough road trip against Denver's defense in Week 14, so he'll need to produce more in order to maintain his lead in the MVP race over Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow.

2. Jalen Hurts MVP Odds (+175) Bet $100 to collect $275. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Jalen Hurts is living it up in Philadelphia, finishing as the unquestioned QB1 in Week 13 with a 74.4 percent completion rate that produced 380 yards and four total touchdowns against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans' defense is vulnerable against the pass, which Hurts exposed by finding former Titans wideout A.J. Brown for a pair of scores to put the game well out of reach for Tennessee. Hurts even managed to score as a ball carrier, which the Titans specialize in stopping, so his MVP outlook has risen substantially following this performance. Hurts will have three upcoming road games, but as long as the Eagles keep relying on his arm and legs, his +175 odds will dry up in value. Hop on Hurts while the odds are still low enough to absorb a high profit.

3. Joe Burrow MVP Odds (+600) Bet $100 to collect $700. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Cincinnati has been playing complete football in the past month, which includes a couple of massive wins over Tennessee and Kansas City. The return of second-year star wideout, Ja'Marr Chase, elevated Burrow's play in Week 13, as he completed 80 percent of his pass attempts for 286 yards and two touchdowns. The third-year franchise quarterback is also mobile enough to be considered a dual-threat, racking up 46 yards and a touchdown as a ball carrier. I've been big on Burrow since the Cleveland dud on Halloween, but his odds have shot up from +1400 to +600, so lay money now before the value dries up closer to the end of December.

4. Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds (+1200) Bet $100 to collect $1300. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Tua Tagovailoa's entire three-year career in the NFL has been marked by ups and downs. His MVP stock has taken a similar approach this season. After several injuries, Tagovailoa left a 33-17 Week 13 loss against the 49ers a bit early due to a mild ankle injury sustained in the fourth quarter. Miami's offense got off to a quick start with Tagovailoa finding Trent Sherfield for a 75-yard touchdown pass on the opening play, but there was little else to celebrate afterward. Tagovailoa wound up launching another deep ball to Tyreek Hill, but the game never quite felt within reach on the road in Santa Clara. Tagovailoa will get a prime-time road game against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14, so if you're a believer in his MVP odds, getting them at 12/1 is a significant value. Personally, I'd stay away, as it looks like the MVP race is tightening between Mahomes, Hurts, and Burrow.

5. Josh Allen MVP Odds (+1400) Bet $100 to collect $1500. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Buffalo's offense didn't have to do much to rack up a road win against New England in Week 13. Josh Allen made a couple of nice throws for 223 yards and two touchdowns, including an impressive sideways jump throw while moving out of bounds to Gabe Davis. Allen was previously the betting favorite for the majority of the season, but consecutive losses to the Jets and Vikings sunk his outlook in the MVP race. Allen could still go on a run late in the year, but he'll need to use his legs and return to over 300 yards per game to create a realistic chance of reclaiming the highest MVP odds. The remaining schedule is difficult, so as tempting as it is to get Allen at +1400 right now, I'd wait until he shows us a game or two of elite production again before laying down bets on his MVP lines.

6. Geno Smith MVP Odds (+5000) Bet $100 to collect $5100. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Geno Smith was one of the few players outside the top five who saw their MVP odds improve in Week 13. Seattle wasn't worried about signing a quarterback in the offseason due to Smith's talent, which hardly anyone predicted coming to fruition. Seattle's signal-caller has been very strong with his production for the Seahawks' offense in 2022. Smith has completed at least 71 percent of his throws and thrown for over 300 yards and two touchdowns in back-to-back games against the Raiders and Rams. It's a long shot, but if Smith sustains these numbers, +5000 is a remarkable value.

7. Dak Prescott MVP Odds (+6000) Bet $100 to collect $6100. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

Dallas has been finding different ways to win games this season. For a while, many fans and pundits thought Cooper Rush was better than Dak Prescott since he filled in admirably during Prescott's absence due to a hand injury. Since returning against the Detroit Lions in Week 7, Prescott has thrown at least two touchdowns and 250 yards in four of six games played. He's only dipped below a 60 percent completion rate once since coming back, which came on the road against a talented Green Bay pass defense, so it's not a huge blemish on Prescott's MVP resumé. However, he's a byproduct of the system and surrounding personnel, so fade Dak Prescott's 60/1 odds until further notice.

8. Tyreek Hill MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10100. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

We're looking at three players rounding out the bottom of the top ten NFL MVP race, headlined by Miami wideout Tyreek Hill. He's been a fixture within the top 10 for a couple of weeks now, but Hill is reliant upon huge plays from Tua Tagovailoa within Mike McDaniel's offensive scheme. Hill has a unique combination of speed, strength, and vision that make him one of the league's best wide receivers, but there's nearly no chance that he ascends from the current 100/1 odds to anywhere inside of 20/1. The Dolphins will play the Chargers, Bills, Packers, Patriots, and Jets, which means Hill has little upside despite possessing massive odds.

9. Kirk Cousins MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10100. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

The last quarterback within the top 10 MVP odds is Minnesota's franchise signal-caller, Kirk Cousins. He's now in his fifth year with the Vikings and playing well, making good decisions, and executing enough throws to get Minnesota to ten wins through its first 12 games. Cousins threw under 200 passing yards for the second time in a three-week span against a stout Jets secondary, but he still maintained a 60 percent completion rate with a touchdown to star wideout Justin Jefferson in the middle of the fourth quarter in Week 13. It's fun to see Cousins still ranking in the top ten MVP odds, but I'm spending my money elsewhere.

10. Justin Jefferson MVP Odds (+10000) Bet $100 to collect $10100. FanDuel has the best offer, click here

The motor that makes Minnesota's offense go is second-year wideout, Justin Jefferson. He has logged seven 100-yard receiving games in 2022 while scoring four touchdowns in his past five games. The most memorable moment of the Vikings' season is tied to Jefferson's clutch one-handed reception in double coverage during a high-pressure fourth down conversion during the 33-30 overtime win over the Bills. Jefferson will get an increasingly stingy Lions defense in Week 14, where he was held to three receptions for 14 yards back in Week 3. If Jefferson goes off for another 100 yards and two touchdowns, his odds will climb, but stay away from sprinkling on his MVP odds.