2022 NFL MVP Odds: Week 17 Power Rankings

2022 NFL MVP ODDS: Week 17 Power Rankings

Almost as soon as I published last week's MVP Power Rankings, news of Jalen Hurts' shoulder injury began to surface, which immediately dropped his odds from the betting favorite at -150. After being ruled out against Dallas in Week 16, Hurts' chances of hoisting the MVP are much slimmer than they appeared after the win in Chicago, as his odds now sit at +1000. Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is back in the saddle and he played extremely well against Seattle in Week 16, racking up three total touchdowns, including an impressive rushing touchdown to break the plane and hit the pylon along the sideline.

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Justin Jefferson continues to dazzle and produce eye-popping numbers with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota, as the third-year star wideout now has at least 11 receptions and 123 receiving yards in three consecutive games. Tyreek Hill is the only other non-quarterback still lingering in the MVP race, but the number of prospects has been trimmed from ten to nine, with Tua Tagovailoa dropping down to 40/1 with a horrific three-interception performance against Green Bay at home in Week 16. Quietly, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are lurking in second and third place in front of Jalen Hurts, and the two will meet and play each other in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football to close out the Week 17 slate.

It's been an NFL season filled with parity and unimaginable outcomes, reminding all of us why it's so much fun to be a fan in 2022. Here we rank the top MVP candidates and explain why each player deserves to be tailed or faded at their current MVP odds. Which players have improved their outlook, and which ones have seen their MVP stock tank? Matt MacKay is here with his latest takes on the continuously unfolding 2022 NFL MVP odds.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

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NFL MVP Race

1. Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds (-550) Bet $100 to collect $118 Caesars has the best odds, click here to bet

There's no longer any value to obtain with Patrick Mahomes in the 2022 NFL MVP race. -550 is a hefty wager with a lot to risk and not much to gain, but it's warranted considering how dominant Mahomes has been playing for Kansas City, logging at least three touchdowns in each of his past three games. The Chiefs have playmakers at different positions throughout the offense, but Mahomes is the engine that makes it all work, sitting with 37 passing touchdowns and over 4,700 yards in 15 games played this season. Denver's defense collapsed against Baker Mayfield in Week 16 and Las Vegas is a porous pass defense in any matchup, so there's a real chance we see Mahomes' MVP odds rise even further before the playoffs arrive. -550 is better than -1200, obviously, but I'd rather wait to see if Mahomes slips up against the Broncos in Week 17 to get slightly better odds. Either way, he's firmly closing in on his second MVP award in five years.

2. Joe Burrow MVP Odds (+700) Bet $100 to collect $800 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

I've been a massive Joe Burrow supporter when it comes to laying tickets on his 2022 MVP outlook. The Bengals' third-year franchise quarterback just threw for 375 yards and three touchdowns in a tough road win over New England to improve Cincinnati's chances of obtaining the one seed in the AFC. Burrow has logged seven passing touchdowns in his past two games against Tampa Bay and New England on the road and will return home for a massive Monday Night Football game against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Burrow has completed at least 69 percent of his pass attempts in three of his past four games, showing poise and a lot of confidence with one of the best receiving corps in the league. I love Burrow at +700 because he could drastically raise his odds with a dominant win over Allen and the Bills in Week 17.

3. Josh Allen MVP Odds (+800) Bet $100 to collect $900 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Josh Allen is back in the top three MVP odds race at +800 after beating Chicago with three total touchdowns in Week 16. The Bills have turned to the run game more in recent weeks, but Allen is still heavily involved as a ball carrier, logging at least 40 rushing yards in three straight games and scoring two rushing touchdowns during this recent stretch. He has enough weapons to distribute the football successfully but Allen will need to outduel Burrow on the road in primetime to improve his odds to give himself a realistic shot at challenging Mahomes as the betting favorite. Allen has thrown for under 175 yards in two of his past three games and completed under 60 percent of his pass attempts during these matchups, so he may not have enough production against quality secondaries like Cincinnati and New England. I don't mind betting on Allen at +800 but it will take a 400-yard, four-touchdown outing against the Bengals to make it a good investment.

4. Jalen Hurts MVP Odds (+1000) Bet $100 to collect $1,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

It's wild how an injury can rattle the MVP odds race but that's exactly what's happened with Jalen Hurts. His numbers are incredibly efficient and he's the best mobile quarterback in the league in terms of scoring consistency, but Hurts' inability to suit up against Dallas in Week 16 has left him sitting with +1000 odds ahead of a chance to clinch the one seed in the NFC against New Orleans at home on Sunday afternoon. The Eagles are a run-centric offense and could funnel a lot of touches through Miles Sanders or continue leaning on backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, which would destroy any final chance of Hurts making a run at improving his 2022 NFL MVP odds. We haven't seen Hurts at +1000 virtually all season, so if you want to sprinkle on it with hopes that he returns to help clinch the one seed in Week 17, I understand, but head coach Nick Sirianni could play it safe and roll Minshew back under center to preserve his star quarterback's health heading into the playoffs.

5. Justin Jefferson MVP Odds (+13000) Bet $100 to collect $13,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

We go from +1000 down to the next tier of MVP prospects at +13000. Justin Jefferson has proven to be the most valuable player for his team this season, hauling in 123 receptions for 1,756 yards and nine total touchdowns. The third-year wideout has only dipped below 123 receiving yards twice in his last eight games, as Kirk Cousins throws anywhere from 11 to 16 passes Jefferson's way against any opponent. Jefferson could wind up breaking Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record at 1,964 set in 2012, but he'll need to do it against a pair of division rivals, Green Bay and Detroit, who know him well. Jefferson could be a good investment but only if he breaks Johnson's record, which will likely still hold him back from surpassing Mahomes. At +13000 though, it's a tempting investment that is worth throwing some coin on.

6. Justin Herbert MVP Odds (+15000) Bet $100 to collect $15,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

I bring it up frequently when the MVP conversation shifts to Justin Herbert but it's really impressive seeing him play with a full set of healthy wide receivers. The third-year quarterback has dealt with cracked ribs and an underwhelming cast of personnel throughout the 2022 season, yet he's led the Chargers to a 3-1 record since Week 12, starting with a gutsy performance in a 25-24 win over Arizona. Hebert converted the two-point attempt in the waning seconds and it's instilled confidence throughout the offense, with Herbert throwing for over 300 yards in three straight games. Even during a two-interception game against Tennessee's porous secondary, Herbert made the big throws when they mattered most, setting up the Chargers for game-winning field goals and keeping them in the seventh and final seed in the AFC playoff race. Herbert is +15000 based on his body of work this year but if he can continue completing over 65 percent of his pass attempts and find ways to win, he will improve his MVP odds with a favorable rest-of-season schedule.

7. Tyreek Hill MVP Odds (+25000) Bet $100 to collect $25,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Miami is trending in the wrong direction with four consecutive losses but it's no fault of Tyreek Hill's. The Dolphins' star wideout logged his seventh 100-yard receiving game this season against a stingy Green Bay pass defense in Week 16, despite Tua Tagovailoa's regression into a multi-turnover-prone quarterback. Hill did see his three-game touchdown streak end but he was tackled on the one-yard line after making a big reception on a deep ball from Tagovailoa, setting up a Miami touchdown. The Dolphins will need to win out in order to salvage its season and a playoff seed, but Hill is keeping it afloat with his game-changing speed and quickness on the perimeter in Miami. I'd fade his +@25000 odds because of how the team is performing, but Hill would be in a better position to bet on if his team was winning like how Minnesota is performing with Jefferson.

8. Kirk Cousins MVP Odds (+40000) Bet $100 to collect $40,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

We're having fun with Kirk Cousins continually landing at the bottom of the MVP race odds this season. He's putting up Pro Bowl numbers and has a multitude of weapons outside of Justin Jefferson, such as T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn, but he won't have a realistic chance of winning the MVP in 2022. Cousins' huge numbers would be more effective if the Vikings were blowing teams out at 12-3, but instead, they are winning one-possession games at the buzzer, changing the perception of how good they are as an entire collective. Still, let's give credit to Cousins for back-to-back Pro Bowl nominations and for throwing seven touchdowns against two stingy pass defenses in the last couple of games.

9. Tua Tagovailoa MVP Odds (+40000) Bet $100 to collect $40,100 DraftKings has the best odds, click here to bet

Tua Tagovailoa sealed his fate on Sunday in front of his home fans with a devastating three-interception performance to close out the 26-20 loss against Green Bay in Week 16. The former top-three MVP candidate has struggled in December, losing four games in a row, while committing numerous turnovers in his past two games against the Bills and Packers. Tagovailoa has only thrown two touchdowns once in his past three games played, falling below 250 yards in two of three, and he is ineffective as a ball carrier. Mike McDaniel instilled confidence and belief in the new zone-blocking scheme that has become popular across the league, but Tagovailoa's losing slump and bad performance on Christmas Day have dropped his MVP odds down to 40/1. It looks like the Cinderella story has ended, so let's avoid laying any money on Tagovailoa ahead of two tough games against New England and the New York Jets.

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