NFL Tankathon: How Will Week 16 Odds and Results Affect 2025 NFL Draft Order?

There are just three weeks left of the NFL regular season, and while some teams are fighting for playoff chances and seeding, there is another group of teams on the other end of the standings with an entirely different mission. Welcome to the NFL Tankathon, where the worst teams in the league duke it out to see who can lose more games.

There are several critical matchups in Week 16 that could entirely rearrange the 2025 NFL Draft order depending on their results. We have the Jaguars and Raiders squaring off at the top of the order, with each hoping to lose more than the other down the stretch. Let's take a look at each team's chances and how they'll shift as they fight for the biggest loser title and the No. 1 draft pick.

NFL Tankathon: Draft Order if Season Ended Today

1. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
2. New York Giants (2-12)
3. New England Patriots (3-11)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
5. Carolina Panthers (3-11)
6. Tennessee Titans (3-11)
7. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
8. New York Jets (4-10)
9. Chicago Bears (4-10)
10. New Orleans Saints (5-9)

Click here for the latest NFL Week 16 Odds

NFL Tankathon: Week 16 Odds

No. 4 Jaguars vs. No. 1 Raiders (-2.5)

We'll call this one the NFL Tankathon game of the week, even though you should have no interest in watching it. The Raiders are favored by 2.5 points at home, and have about a 56% chance of winning this game. That is, if you go by the fair odds.

Financially and mathematically, neither team really wants to win this game, as it would destroy their positioning and potentially cost them millions in draft capital. In a tight race with seven teams holding three wins or less, every game and tiebreaker matter immensely.

The Raiders still play the Saints next week, so it's entirely feasible that they could accidentally win one of those games. But they've lost 10 games in a row, and although there are some close losses in there, it doesn't appear that they are making any effort offensively to pull off these upsets. Antonio Pierce will likely be scapegoated and fired at the end of the season, and the franchise will hope to move on with Shedeur Sanders as their top pick.

The Raiders will start Aidan O'Connell again, quite an upgrade from last week's Desmond Ridder. In all seriousness, O'Connell has exhibited flashes of success for the Raiders this year, nearly leading them to a road upset over the Chiefs. If he's accurate today, a connection with Brock Bowers could lead them to an unnecessary victory over the equally lowly Jags.

The Jaguars still have the Titans and Colts again after this week, and this time it's Titans at home. They just beat them in Nashville a few weeks ago, which was the game that took them out of the top pick conversation temporarily. If they win either or both of these next two games, they'll be soaring away from a top-10 pick.

Mac Jones will lead the offense in this battle of the backups, and has thrown for over 220 yards in each of his last three starts, adding four touchdowns on the way. But he's struggled with turnovers, throwing four picks in the same time frame. We'll see how he starts off as a road underdog against the Raiders.

No. 2 Giants (+9) vs. No. 16 Falcons

The New York Giants are one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they go out there and prove it each week. Unlike the Raiders, there aren't many close losses to be found, and they routinely get a massive underdog spread. Many would argue that they are a far worse team in their current form, but simply hold the second spot due to tiebreakers.

Today, they'll take on Michael Penix Jr. in his Falcons debut down in Atlanta. Even against a rookie QB in his first ever start, the Giants are still 9-point underdogs. That should tell you the entire story on the remaining motivation from this team.

Our oddschecker+ AI shows us that the Giants have just about a 22% chance of winning today, a similar 23% shot against the Colts next week, both times as more than a touchdown underdog. They'll wrap up the season with a likely 17-point spread against the Eagles in Week 18, the final nail in the coffin for this disastrous season.

In the event that they lose all three games, they have guaranteed themselves at least the No. 2 pick, if not higher depending on the Raiders' results. They need a quarterback badly after the Daniel Jones fiasco finally came to a close this season, and will need to be in the top-two spots in order to have a solid selection.

Other NFL Draft Tankers: Patriots, Panthers, Titans, Browns

Outside of the main grouping, we still have a pack of three-win teams that can move around significantly today.

The Patriots sit in the third spot, and are the biggest underdog on the slate at over two touchdowns against the Bills. Don't expect them to be bouncing around today, because they have no chance (11%) in that game.

However, the No. 5 Panthers and No. 6 Titans both do have solid shots at a win, with the Panthers clocking in as a 5-point underdog at home against the inconsistent Cardinals, and the Titans as a 3.5-point road dog against the Colts. The Titans have a much better shot at winning at 45% according to oddschecker+, while the Panthers are a bit further back at just over 25%.

Both teams have shown some offensive prowess in the last few weeks, especially with the Titans swapping in Mason Rudolph for Will Levis. He threw for 200+ yards and two touchdowns in the last loss to the Bengals, at least giving them a chance to be competitive. The Titans are wrapping up their season with three AFC South divisional game against the Colts, Jags, and Texans. There is a strong shot that they win at least one of those, which would send them closer to the No. 10 spot in the draft order.

Lastly, the Cleveland Browns are checking in from the No. 7 spot, and it looks like it's only up for the Browns this week. They are nearly double-digit underdogs on the road against the Bengals in an AFC North clash, and the Bengals will be going all out as they cling to their last hopes of the playoffs. Cleveland has two other games against the Dolphins and Ravens to end it, so it's entirely possible that they finish with the same three wins on the season and climb this list into the top five when all is said and done.