Dolphins Playoff Odds: Miami Has Slimmest 0.3% Chance of Making Playoffs Ahead of MNF Clash with Steelers
The Miami Dolphins aren't officially eliminated from the playoffs yet, but hold the slimmest of chances ahead of their Monday Night Football battle with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Can they keep hope alive on MNF? Peter Alexis breaks down the Dolphins' playoff chances as they try to salvage their season.
Peter Alexis - December 15, 2025, 6:40 PM EST
5 Minute ReadDolphins Playoff Odds: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike McDaniel Extremely Unlikely to Make Playoffs, But Playing for Job Security in Last Few Weeks
The Miami Dolphins enter the final stretch of the NFL season hanging by a thread, with their playoff hopes reduced to extreme longshot territory. After hovering around contention for much of the fall, Miami now sits at 6-7 and staring at near-certain elimination. Betting markets reflect just how dire the situation has become, pricing the Dolphins at +30000 to make the postseason, which translates to roughly a 0.3% chance. At this stage, the margin for error is gone. Miami not only needs to win out, but also needs a cascade of unlikely results around the league to even stay alive into the final week.
Their next test comes under brutal conditions on Monday Night Football against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Miami is a +3.5 underdog in a game expected to be played in frigid 15 degree temperatures. Historically, the Dolphins have struggled mightily in cold weather environments, and that trend looms large again. This is not just another regular season game. It is the last realistic stand before the playoff math turns from improbable to impossible.
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Dolphins Playoff Odds
At +30000, Miami’s playoff odds are effectively a formality rather than a true betting market. Even if the Dolphins manage to upset Pittsburgh on the road, the path remains almost nonexistent. They would still need to win out against the Bengals, Buccaneers, and Patriots to finish 9-7. That alone is a tall order, as Miami is likely to be an underdog in most, if not all, of those matchups. The road trip to New England in particular has historically been problematic, regardless of the Patriots’ record.
Beyond winning their own games, Miami would need chaos above them in the standings. The Bills would have to lose out against the Browns, Eagles, and Jets. The Texans would need to lose all remaining games against the Raiders, Chargers, and Colts. On top of that, the Colts would need to drop at least two of their final three games against the 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans. While it is reasonable to imagine Indianapolis stumbling, there is virtually no scenario where both Buffalo and Houston completely collapse against those schedules. Two teams ahead of Miami would need to melt down simultaneously, which makes elimination feel inevitable rather than looming.
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Dolphins Super Bowl Odds
Miami’s Super Bowl odds tell an even clearer story. They sit at +100000, a number that exists purely for mathematical completeness rather than competitive relevance. There is no realistic path for the Dolphins to make a deep playoff run, let alone contend for a championship. At this point, the more meaningful goal is finishing the season strong.
If Miami can win a majority of its remaining games and close with a winning record, it could carry momentum into next year. That may prove crucial for head coach Mike McDaniel’s job security and for Tua Tagovailoa’s long term future with the franchise. Playoffs or not, the final weeks will shape how the Dolphins are viewed heading into the offseason.
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