Sierra Leone Kentucky Derby Odds: A Breakdown of the Kentucky Derby Co-Favorite’s Chances

Sierra Leone Kentucky Derby Odds: A Breakdown of the Kentucky Derby Co-Favorite’s Chances

The Horse: Sierra Leone

It isn't just a tongue and cheek saying - Sierra Leone was born for this moment. He was purchased as a 2.3 million dollar yearling and has been worth every penny of that so far. His sire (dad), Gun Runner was a Breeders' Cup Classic winner in 2017 and has gone on to be one of the top sires in America since then. Gun Runner was the 5th leading sire in terms of progeny earnings (how much money his kids made on the track) in 2022, 3rd in 2023, and currently sits 4th in 2024. Sierra Leone's dam (mom) is none other than Heavenly Love, who was no slouch herself. Heavenly Love won the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland in 2017, and herself is a daughter of another leading sire of year's past: the late Malibu Moon. It's hard to say that any kind of success is ever expected in horse racing, but Sierra Leone was ready as any colt in the world for the Kentucky Derby trail. He is a big powerful horse that is certainly intimidating when you see him on the track. Trainer Chad Brown has called Sierra Leone a "gentleman" and a curious horse, which has induced some story lines on his path to the Kentucky Derby.

Sierra Leone's Path to Louisville

The Debut

Sierra Leone debuted on November 4th, 2023 at Aqueduct up near New York City. He was 3-1 on debut and got caught up in some traffic around the far turn. Jockey Manny Franco didn't have to move much on him to swing him wide and roll past his opponents. Still, if you go back and watch the replay, Sierra Leone lugs way inside instead of just going on by horses. He didn't make it look as easy, but he still won by a solid length. Even so, trainer Chad Brown saw that there was a lot of talent in this inexperienced 2 year old colt.

The Remsen

Chad Brown put jockey Jose Ortiz aboard Sierra Leone for his first stakes race - the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct - a premier event for 2-year-olds late in 2023. The favorite in this race was Dornoch, who will start just to Sierra Leone's inside in the Kentucky Derby gates. Dornoch broke sharply in the opening stages of the race and had almost everything go his way. Then, Sierra Leone was unleashed to go seven wide at the top of the stretch and rolled by the 8-5 favorite. But then Sierra Leone slowed up, let Dornoch back into the race, and lost the Remsen in heartbreaking fashion at the wire. Chad Brown then went into the lab and started trying different things with Sierra Leone to make sure that didn't happen again. In the end, it was just a small set of blinkers added to Sierra Leone to make sure he didn't get too curious the next time he blows by a leader.

The Risen Star

Sierra Leone grew up a little bit over the winter months, and made his return as a 3-year-old in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes down at the Fairgrounds in New Orleans. It was a sloppy track that day in the bayou, which doesn't normally bode well for deep closers like Sierra Leone. Track Phantom, who we'll see this year in the Kentucky Derby, was on the lead and set some very reasonable fractions - meaning that he should have had enough left in the tank to hold off the late runners in the stretch. Still, jockey Tyler Gaffalione sent Sierra Leone to the ten path (you read that right) and went way wide to still somehow run down Track Phantom in the final strides. The job wasn't finished yet, though, as the connections set their sights on the great state of Kentucky.

The Blue Grass

If Sierra Leone was going to be a top pick in the Kentucky Derby this year, he was going to have to take on his old friend in Dornoch once again. This time it was in the one million dollar 100th running of the Blue Grass Stakes - the biggest race at Keeneland racecourse all year (Breeders' Cup years excluded.) I was on track this day and it was absolutely packed at Keeneland. Sierra Leone was the last to load into the gate, and was a bit nervous with the thousands of slightly inebriated (possibly an understatement) fans on track. With hoards of drunk fraternity brothers screaming at him to get a move on, our pal Sierra Leone finally was coaxed into the starting gate by the excellent gate workers and horsemen at Keeneland. Sierra Leone went off at 8-5 and had to go back to his old bag of tricks. After sitting toward the back of the field, Gaffalione sent him wide yet again to get to the lead. Sierra Leone blew by the likes of Kentucky Derby entrants Dornoch, Just a Touch, and Epic Ride to win the 100th Blue Grass Stakes, solidifying himself as a Kentucky Derby favorite. His curious nature may have given us a fright before the race, but once the gates opened, he was all business.

Assessing Sierra Leone's Chances

With his deep closing style, Sierra Leone has been reeling in fans (myself included) and horses on the lead. Sierra Leone will benefit most in the Kentucky Derby generally if the pace up front is fast. When it comes to the half-mile time in the Kentucky Derby, I'm going to be looking for something less than 47 seconds. The faster the opening fractions are, the better it'll set up for the locomotive rolling from the back of the field named after a country in West Africa. If some of the early running horses have to work really hard up front, Sierra Leone and closers like Honor Marie, Catching Freedom, and maybe even Domestic Product will certainly benefit. Cheering and betting on a late closer can be palpitation inducing, but don't give up on Sierra Leone until the race is over. He's going to be charging hard down the stretch and will undoubtedly be a player at the end.