Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price Odds: 76% Chance Paul's Pikachu Sells for Over $7 Million

Logan Paul's Pikachu Illustrator Sale Price Odds: 72% Chance Paul's Pikachu Sells for Over $7 Million

Logan Paul is officially auctioning the world’s most expensive Pokémon card - the PSA‑10 Pikachu Illustrator he purchased for $5.275 million in 2021, a price that set a Guinness World Record for the most expensive Pokémon card ever sold.

The card will be sold through Goldin Auctions beginning January 12, 2026, after Paul accepted a $2.5 million advance from Ken Goldin as part of a deal featured in Netflix’s King of Collectibles.

Goldin estimates the card will sell for between $7 million and $12 million, citing unprecedented demand in the high‑end collectibles market. With that backdrop, prediction markets have exploded with activity as traders speculate on just how high the final hammer price will go.

Below, we break down the latest Polymarket odds - and what they imply for the most anticipated trading‑card sale in history.

As well as this, Kalshi markets may open soon, so if you are new to Kalshi and want to bet on markets like this, you can sign up for an account here and claim a $10 bonus when making your predictions.

Polymarket Odds for Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator Sale

Will the card sell for more than $4 million? - Yes: 91¢ | No: 10¢

A 91¢ “Yes” price implies a 91% chance the card clears $4 million. Converted into US Moneyline odds, this is approximately –1011.

Given that Paul already secured a $2.5 million advance and the auction estimate begins at $7 million, this threshold is essentially viewed as a lock.

Will it sell for more than $5 million? - Yes: 89¢ | No: 12¢

A 89¢ “Yes” price implies an 89% chance, or roughly –809.

This aligns with the fact that Paul originally purchased the card for $5.275 million and the auction is expected to exceed that figure comfortably.

Will it sell for more than $6 million? - Yes: 84¢ | No: 17¢

A price of 84¢ implies an 84% chance, equivalent to about –525.

This reflects strong confidence that the card will surpass the lower end of Goldin’s $7–12 million estimate.

Will it sell for more than $7 million? - Yes: 76¢ | No: 25¢

A 76¢ “Yes” price implies a 76% chance, or roughly –317.

This is the first tier where traders begin to show hesitation - $7 million is the bottom of the projected auction range, but still a massive number even for the rarest Pokémon card ever printed.

Will it sell for more than $8 million? - Yes: 61¢ | No: 40¢

A 61¢ “Yes” price implies a 61% chance, translating to approximately –156.

This is essentially a coin‑flip tier, with traders split on whether the card will push into the upper half of the expected range.

Will it sell for more than $10 million? - Yes: 40¢ | No: 62¢

A 40¢ “Yes” price implies a 40% chance, or roughly +150.

Crossing eight figures would place the card among the most expensive trading cards ever sold - sports or otherwise - and traders see this as possible but far from guaranteed.

Will it sell for more than $15 million? - Yes: 11¢ | No: 90¢

A 11¢ “Yes” price implies an 11% chance, equivalent to +809.

This would require a historic bidding war and a sale far above Goldin’s top estimate of $12 million. Traders view this as a long‑shot outcome.

Could Kalshi Open a Market on This?

While the current pricing comes from Polymarket, this sale is exactly the type of high‑profile, quantifiable event that Kalshi has historically listed - similar to markets on sports awards, entertainment outcomes, and major financial events.

If Kalshi opens a market, traders would be able to:

• Buy “Yes” or “No” contracts on specific price thresholds
• Trade in and out as bidding updates leak
• Hedge positions across multiple tiers

For now, Polymarket is the only exchange offering live pricing - but Kalshi could easily follow.

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If you are new to the Kalshi platform, you can claim a $10 bonus with our new user promotion!

Sign up below or throughout the article to claim your $10 bonus when making your trades on the predictions platform.

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