Updated 2026 Oscar Best Actress Odds: Jessie Buckley's Historic Sweep Leaves the Field in the Dust
The Oscars are almost here, and you can bet on which films, directors, actors, and actresses you think is going to win on Kalshi. Jack Borovitz breaks down the Kalshi odds for which actress from this year will win Best Actress.
Jack Borovitz - March 15, 2026, 6:05 PM EDT
6 Minute ReadUpdated 2026 Oscar Best Actress Odds: Jessie Buckley's Historic Sweep Leaves the Field in the Dust
The Best Actress race is effectively over before Conan O'Brien opens the first envelope tonight. Jessie Buckley ran through every precursor award this season for her role as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet, winning the Golden Globe, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG Award in succession. She became the first Irish actress to sweep all four of those ceremonies in a single season. Only one actor in history, Russell Crowe in 2002, has completed that run and lost the Oscar (and that required an infamous confrontation with a BAFTA producer the night before Academy ballots went out). With over $3.3 million traded on Kalshi, the market is pricing Buckley at 97%. Two-time winner Emma Stone and Golden Globe champ Rose Byrne are still on the board, but neither has found enough traction to threaten a runaway favorite this dominant.
The 98th Academy Awards air tonight at 7pm ET on ABC, with Conan O'Brien hosting from the Dolby Theatre. Voting is closed and ballots are locked in. This is the final window to get positioned before results are announced live.
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Latest Best Actress Odds From Kalshi
Contestant | Chance |
|---|---|
Jessie Buckley | 97% |
Rose Byrne | 3% |
Emma Stone | <1% |
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet): 97% Chance
The cleanest sweep in recent memory. Buckley won Critics Choice, Golden Globe for Drama, BAFTA, and the SAG Award for her portrayal of Shakespeare's wife grieving the death of their 11-year-old son Hamnet. Chloé Zhao directed the adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's bestselling novel, with Paul Mescal playing Shakespeare opposite her. Critics have called it one of the most emotionally devastating lead performances in years, and Gold Derby currently gives Buckley a 100% chance of winning. A win tonight would make her the first Irish Best Actress winner in Oscar history. At 97¢ for Yes shares, the market is treating this like a formality. If you're fading Buckley, No shares at 4¢ are the definition of a lottery ticket, banking entirely on a repeat of the 2002 Crowe anomaly where voters turned on the frontrunner at the last possible second.
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You): 3% Chance
The contrarian's pick. Byrne had her own impressive awards run this season, winning the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical, the Independent Spirit Award, the Silver Bear at Berlin, and the National Board of Review prize for playing a mother unraveling while caring for a mysteriously ill daughter in Mary Bronstein's A24 thriller. She was genuinely surprised to win the Globe, joking from the podium that the tiny production was "shot in 25 days for, like, $8.50." Her partner Bobby Cannavale famously missed the ceremony because he was at a reptile expo in New Jersey shopping for a bearded dragon. At 46, this is Byrne's first-ever Oscar nomination after a 30-year career spanning everything from Bridesmaids to Damages. At 3¢ Yes shares, bettors respect her season without believing it can overcome Buckley's freight train. The bearded dragon saga alone makes this storyline worth following.
Emma Stone (Bugonia): <1% Chance
The two-time champion looking for a third. Stone won Best Actress for La La Land in 2017 and Poor Things in 2024, and a win here for her Yorgos Lanthimos alien-kidnapping thriller would put her in the company of Meryl Streep, Katharine Hepburn, and the handful of performers with three wins. She shaved her head for the role and became the youngest woman in history to reach seven Oscar nominations at 37. Bugonia didn't pick up any precursor wins in the acting categories, though, and the market reflects that. At 1¢ Yes shares, this is a penny stock for voters who believe legacy and the Lanthimos partnership carry more weight than momentum.
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) round out the five-nominee field but neither appears on the active Kalshi market. Hudson earned her second Oscar nomination 25 years after Almost Famous, playing half of a Neil Diamond tribute duo opposite Hugh Jackman. Reinsve picked up her first nomination for Joachim Trier's Norwegian family drama. Their absence from the market tells you where bettors see their chances.
Buckley's awards path looks like a coronation. Byrne's Golden Globe and Spirit Award give her a puncher's chance in the event of a historic upset. Stone's legacy makes her a name to watch for the three-peat crowd. One of them walks away with the statue tonight.
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