Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds: Joey Chestnut Another Massive Favorite After 2025 Comeback Win
Joey Chestnut is once again a massive favorite to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest after reclaiming the Mustard Belt last year. With Chestnut sitting at -2000 and his total set around 70.5 hot dogs, the biggest betting question is not just whether he wins, but which version of the competitive eating legend shows up at Coney Island.
Peter Alexis - June 30, 2026, 4:03 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill Joey Chestnut Cruise Once Again in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th?
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest returns to Coney Island during Fourth of July weekend, bringing back one of the most unique betting markets on the summer calendar. Chestnut is once again the center of the board, while Patrick Bertoletti, James Webb, Geoffrey Esper, Nick Wehry and Ricardo Corbucci are left trying to chase the most dominant figure the event has ever seen.
Chestnut won last year’s contest with 70.5 hot dogs and buns, reclaiming the title after missing the previous year due to sponsor issues. He has now won 17 of the last 20 Nathan’s contests, with only two losses and one missed appearance breaking up one of the most dominant runs in any competitive event.
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Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
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Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds Breakdown
Joey Chestnut (-2000) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chestnut is -2000 to win, implying roughly a 95% chance of victory. That number is enormous, but it reflects the reality of this market. He is not just the best eater in the field, he is operating on a completely different historical tier.
The question is whether Chestnut can still push into the low-70s or if his 2022 and 2023 totals are a warning sign. He ate 70.5 last year in his return, landing exactly on this year’s listed total, and before the recent dip he had a run of 71+ performances that made 70 feel like a baseline rather than a ceiling. At his peak, he set the world record with 76 in 2021.
Still, the over/under is not a simple auto-play. Chestnut was under 64 in both 2022 and 2023, and even last year’s 70.5 came with him acknowledging he wanted a little more. DraftKings has the over 70.5 heavily juiced at -175, which shows oddsmakers expect him to clear the number, but there is less margin than usual if age, pacing or contest conditions slow him down.
Patrick Bertoletti (+1000) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Bertoletti is the clear second option on the outright board at +1000, and he is also the heavy favorite in the “without Joey Chestnut” market at -400. That says everything about the gap between Chestnut and everyone else.
Bertoletti won the contest in 2024 when Chestnut was absent, then finished second last year with 46.5 hot dogs. His listed total this year is 56.5, which is a major jump from his 2025 result and shows how much lower the field is expected to be compared to Chestnut’s level.
The problem is that even a strong Bertoletti performance may not put real pressure on Chestnut. If Chestnut lands anywhere near 70, Bertoletti likely needs a career-style explosion to make the contest competitive. His more realistic market is the no-Chestnut version, where he is essentially being asked to win the race for second.
James Webb (+3000) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
James Webb is +3000 outright and +500 in the market without Chestnut. He finished third last year with 45.5 hot dogs, putting him right behind Bertoletti and just ahead of Geoffrey Esper.
Webb’s case is that he is close enough to the second-place tier to matter if Bertoletti does not hit his number. A jump into the low or mid-50s could make him dangerous in the no-Chestnut market, especially if the pace behind the favorite becomes messy.
The outright price still shows how far he is from Chestnut. Webb can be a serious threat for second place, but beating Chestnut likely requires both his best performance and a rare off day from the favorite.
Geoffrey Esper (+3500) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Esper is +3500 to win and +600 without Chestnut, making him another credible second-place contender. He finished fourth last year with 43.875 hot dogs and has long been one of the most consistent names behind Chestnut in competitive eating.
His listed total of 48.5 is more modest than Bertoletti’s 56.5, which tells the story of this market. Esper is expected to be competitive, but not necessarily to push into the same range that would make Chestnut sweat.
Esper’s path is steadiness. If Bertoletti and Webb stall, Esper can grind his way into the no-Chestnut conversation. But in the outright market, his odds reflect the same issue everyone faces: Chestnut is expected to be 20 or more hot dogs clear of most of the field.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Without Joey Chestnut Odds
The no-Chestnut market is really the battle for second place. Bertoletti is -400, Webb is +500, Esper is +600 and Nick Wehry is +1500, which makes Bertoletti the clear favorite to finish as the best of the rest.
This market is much more interesting than the outright because it removes the almost unbeatable favorite and focuses on the actual competitive tier. Bertoletti has the best résumé after winning in Chestnut’s absence and finishing second last year, but Webb and Esper were close enough in 2025 that a small swing in pace could change the order.
The totals also show the separation. Bertoletti’s number is 56.5, Esper’s is 48.5, and the rest of the field is expected to operate well below Chestnut’s range. Unless someone produces a major career performance, the real question is whether Bertoletti can control the second-place market as cleanly as Chestnut controls the main one.
Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds Outlook
Chestnut is the rightful -2000 favorite, and the only real debate is whether the price is playable at that level. His history, 17 Mustard Belts and 70.5-hot-dog return last year make him almost impossible to fade outright.
The more interesting market is his total. Over 70.5 is juiced to -175, and that makes sense if last year’s comeback was the start of another low-70s run. The concern is that 2022 and 2023 were both under 64, so bettors are still choosing between peak Chestnut and a slightly older version trying to hold the line.
In the no-Chestnut market, Bertoletti is the clear favorite but expensive at -400. Webb and Esper have longer prices and real paths if Bertoletti does not reach the mid-50s, but the main board remains simple: Chestnut is still the king, and everyone else is chasing second.
- Market Favorite: Joey Chestnut (-2000) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Market To Watch: Joey Chestnut Over 70.5 Hot Dogs (-175) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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