2020 US Presidential Election Odds and Betting

A full overview of the odds and betting history for the 2020 Election
Sam Eaton
Thu, June 25, 6:17 PM EDT

2020 US Election Odds

Ever since he defeated Hillary Clinton back in 2016, Donald Trump has been the long-time favorite to secure another tenure as US president. The market has changed drastically over the last few years, with plenty of candidates challenging Trump for favoritism.

There have only been a couple of times where bookmakers have favored another candidate over the current president. In Mid-March (2020), bookmakers briefly priced up Joe Biden as the joint-favorite to win the 2020 Election. However, Trump soon regained his position in the market before being over-taken by Biden once again in early June.

Joe Biden has remained favorite to win the US Election ever since, and as the odds showcase below is significantly shorter in the betting market than Donald Trump

Candidate Odds (UK Format) Odds (US Format) Implied Percentage Chance Return on $10 Bet...
Joe Biden 8/11 -137 58.1% $17.30
Donald Trump 13/8 +163 38.1% $26.30
Hillary Clinton 80/1 +8000 1.2% $810
Mike Pence 80/1 +8000 1.2% $810
Michelle Obama +100/1 +10000 1% $1010

(Odds correct 06/21/2020 – updated regulary)

The odds above are taken from our UK site where it’s legal to bet on the 2020 US Election. Oddschecker works with the biggest bookmakers in the world to ensure every bettor gets the best odds on their bet. The odds in the table above are the best odds available on the market. Each bookmaker has their own trading team, therefore odds can be vastly different. For example, one bookmaker currently has Mike Pence at 25/1 to win the US Election, whereas another has him at 80/1.

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Can US residents bet on the 2020 US Election?

No legal operator will accept bets on the 2020 US Election in the United States of America currently. This is not expected to change anytime soon. However, online betting for other sports is opening up on a state-by-state basis. Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl.

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2020 US Election betting patterns

Even though the bookmakers believe the 2020 US Election could be a close call between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the betting public thinks otherwise. Below you’ll find betting breakdowns for 2019 and 2020:

US Election Betting Patterns From 2019

Donald Trump accounted for just under 45% of the bets placed on the 2020 US Election in 2019, which was some distance ahead of Bernie Sanders who was the second most backed candidate that year with 9% of all bets.

Joe Biden was only the fourth most backed candidate in the market with 6.6% of bets, he found himself behind Trump, Sanders and Andrew Yang.

US Election Betting Patterns From 2020

Donald Trump's dominance in the market continued into 2020, the current president has accounted for a massive 51% of bets to date in 2020. Joe Biden has increased in popularity and is now the second most backed person in the market with just under 20% of bets.

Candidate 2019 Betting Market Share   Candidate 2019 Betting Market Share
Donald Trump 45%   Donald Trump 51.12%
Bernie Sanders 9.3%   Joe Biden 13.98%
Andrew Yang 7.9%   Bernie Sanders 9.68%
Joe Biden 6.6%   Andrew Yang 4.3%
Elizabeth Warren 5.13%                     Michael Bloomberg 3%
Pete Buttigieg 3.8%                     Hillary Clinton 2%
Kamala Harris 3.4%                                    Pete Buttigieg 1.4%

(Data correct as of 06/21/2020)

2020 Election candidates which have previously been popular in the betting

There have been plenty of names in the market which have either been a popular option with bettors over the last couple of years or have previously been given a solid chance of winning the US Election by bookmakers. Breakdown below:

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders started to gain momentum in February 2020 and was the clear second-favorite in the market. Near the end of February the bookmakers had Sanders at 2/1 to win the 2020 US Election, he also accounted for 24% of bets in the market during the February 2020.

Michael Bloomberg

February was also a key month for Michael Bloomberg, toward the beginning of the month he touched 10/3 in the betting market. There were days when Bloomberg was a more popular option in the market than Trump. In February 2020 he accounted for 8.4% of bets.

Andrew Yang

Andrew Yang has never been a big player in the 2020 US Election betting market, however he did touch 12/1 in early October.

Beto O’Rourke

Beto O’Rourke looked like he’d mount a series challenge ahead of the election. He was as short as 11/2 in March 2019 but his odds lengthened rapidly afterwards.

Kamala Harris

In July 2019, Kamala Harris was 4/1 to win the US Election. Harris remained around this price for a considerable period but drifted to 100/1 before the end of the year.

Amy Klobuchar

Amy Klobuchar has never been among the favorites in the betting for the election, however she was 9/1 in February 2019. She’s remained among the top ten favorites since but without her odds decreasing further.

Celebrities in the 2020 US Election Betting Market

Various celebrities have been rumoured to be considering a run for the White House. This obviously looks very unlikely now, but this hasn’t stopped bettors taking a risk. Betfair exchange is the worlds biggest online betting exchange where bettors bet against other bettors. There’s been over £37 million bet on the US Election market with Betfair, below are a few very surprising names and the amount staked on them in the market:

Candidate Amount Bet
George Clooney £1,301
Mark Zuckerberg £9,054
Ivanka Trump £20,188
Dwayne Johnson £19,337
Mark Cuban £27,560
Oprah Winfrey £21,197
Angelina Jolie £650

(Amounts correct as of 06/21/2020)

How reliable are the betting markets?

UK betting data has been a reliable source for previous political betting markets. In 2016, Donald Trump dominated the market in terms of bets placed. Brexit was another event that betting data correctly predicted.

  Remain/Clinton Leave/Trump
Brexit 27% 73%
2016 US Election 39% 61%

Further information

Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.

Oddschecker has been used as a reference point by some of the biggest publications in the US, if you would like more information/data please contact: useditor@oddschecker.com

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