2020 US Presidential Election Odds and Betting: Trump vs. Biden

Breakdown of the odds and betting history for the 2020 US Election
Sam Eaton
Tue, June 30, 10:45 AM EDT

2020 US Election Odds

Donald Trump’s stranglehold of the 2020 US Election betting market has certainly slipped during June 2020. Apart from a small period in Mid-March (2020), Tump’s been the favorite to win the election since the market opened following his victory over Hillary Clinton back in 2016. However, if the US election odds are anything to go by, June has been a bad month for Donald Trump.

Joe Biden joined Donald Trump as joint-favorite in Mid-March, but slipped back into second-favortism during April and May. However, the Democratic candidate has now become the clear favorite in the market, which has caused the current President's odds to move to the longest they’ve been for 15 months.

The table below shows Joe Biden is the significant market leader, and according to the bookmakers is the most likely winner of the 2020 US Election.

Candidate Odds (UK Format) Odds (US Format) Implied Percentage Chance Return on $10 Bet...
Joe Biden 8/13 -162 61.9% $16.17
Donald Trump 7/4 +175 36.4% $27.50
Hillary Clinton 66/1 +6600 1.5% $670
Mike Pence 70/1 +7000 1.4% $710
Michelle Obama +100/1 +10000 1% $1010

(Data correct as of 06/30/2020)

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The odds above are taken from our UK site where it’s legal to bet on the 2020 US Election. Oddschecker works with the biggest bookmakers in the world to ensure every bettor gets the best odds on their bet. The odds in the table above are the best odds available on the market. Each bookmaker sets their own odds, therefore the prices can be vastly different. For example, one bookmaker currently has Mike Pence at 25/1 to win the US Election, whereas another has him at 70/1.

Since we last updated the table (06/21/2020), Joe Biden’s implied chance of winning the US Election has move from 58.1% to 61.9%. Donald Trump’s chance have slipped from 38.1% to 36.4%. Hillary Clinton’s chances have increased from 1.2% to 1.5% and Mike Pence’s chances have slightly improved from 1.2% to 1.4%.

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Can US residents bet on the 2020 US Election?

No legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election in the United States of America currently. This is not expected to change before the 2020 US Election. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.

Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl.

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2020 US Election betting patterns

Despite the odds makers believing Joe Biden’s the likely winner of the 2020 US Election, the betting public think otherwise. The betting breakdowns below just show how popular Donald Trump has been amongst bettors.

US Election Betting Patterns From 2019

Just under 45% of bets placed on the 2020 US Presidential Election in 2019 were placed on Donald Trump. Trump’s support was someway clear of any other potential candidates, Bernie Sanders was the second most backed in 2019, accounting for just 9% of all bets.

Joe Biden was only the fourth most backed candidate in the market with 6.6% of bets, he found himself behind Trump, Sanders and Andrew Yang.

US Election Betting Patterns From 2020

Donald Trump’s dominance over the 2020 US Election betting only accelerated as we entered 2020. The current President has accounted for just under 52% of all bets placed in the market this year. As expected, Joe Biden’s increased in popularity among bettors, and he’s become the second most backed candidate in the market, accounting for just under 22% of all bets placed.

The pattern for June 2020 follows a very similar trend, Donald Trump’s been the popular option with 54% of bets, followed by Joe Biden who has accounted for 37% of all bets.

Candidate 2019 Betting Market Share   Candidate 2019 Betting Market Share
Donald Trump 45%   Donald Trump 51.84%
Bernie Sanders 9.3%   Joe Biden 21.38%
Andrew Yang 7.9%   Bernie Sanders 9.67%
Joe Biden 6.6%   Andrew Yang 1.14%
Elizabeth Warren 5.13%                     Michael Bloomberg 2.63%
Pete Buttigieg 3.8%                     Hillary Clinton 1.88%
Kamala Harris 3.4%                                    Pete Buttigieg 1.27%

(Data correct as of 06/30/2020)

2020 Election candidates which have previously been popular in the betting

There’s been various names in the betting market who have grown and declined in popularity among bettors over the last few years. We’ve highlighted a few of the major players below.

Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders looked nailed on to be the Democrat candidate in February 2020, and was the clear second-favorite in the 2020 US Election betting market. At the backend of the month, Bernie Sanders was 2/1 to win the 2020 US Election, and accounted for 24% of all bets placed in the same month.

Michael Bloomberg

Michael Bloomberg also grew in popularity during February 2020. Towards the start of the month, Bloomberg touched 10/3 in the betting market. He was that popular, there were a couple of days in February where he was more popular than Donald Trump with bettors. In February 2020 he accounted for 8.4% of all bets.

Andrew Yang

Early October 2019 was the highlight for Andrew Yang, despite never being a big player in the betting market he touched as short as 12/1 during this month.

Beto O’Rourke

Beto O’Rourke appeared to be mounting a serious challenge for the 2020 Election in 2019. He even touched 11/2 in March 2019, but his odds rapidly lengthened.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris found herself amongst the favorites to win the US Election in July 2019, during the month she was priced at 4/1, however, she soon drifted back out to 100/1 before the end of the year.

Amy Klobuchar

Amy Klobuchar has constantly been among the top ten favorites to win the 2020 US Election, her highlight came in February 2019 where she touched 9/1.

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Celebrities in the 2020 US Election Betting Market

Following Donald Trump’s move into politics there’s been various rumours of other celebrities, businessmen and women running for election. There’s very slim chance of this happening now, but it’s not stopped bettors parting with their money over the last few years.

Betfair exchange is the world's biggest online betting exchange where bettors bet against other bettors. There’s been over £41 million bet on the US Election market with Betfair, below are a few very surprising names and the amount staked on them in the market:

Candidate Amount Bet
George Clooney £1,313
Mark Zuckerberg £9,222
Ivanka Trump £20,554
Dwayne Johnson £21,671
Mark Cuban £30,269
Oprah Winfrey £21,997
Angelina Jolie £659

(Amounts correct as of 06/30/2020)

How reliable are the betting markets?

UK betting data has been a reliable source for previous political betting markets and is used by various sources to predict future developments. In 2016, Donald Trump dominated the market in terms of bets placed. Brexit was another event that betting data correctly predicted.

  Remain/Clinton Leave/Trump
Brexit 27% 73%
2016 US Election 39% 61%

Early look at the 2024 US Election Odds and Betting

Joe Biden is the current favorite to win the 2024 US Eelection at 6/1, Mike Pence is second favorite at 10/1. Below you’ll find a full breakdown of the market and some very interesting betting patterns.

2024 US Election Odds

Candidate Odds (UK Format) Odds (US Format) Implied Percentage Chance Return on $10 Bet...
Joe Biden 6/1 +600 14.3% $70
Mike Pence 10/1 +1000 9.1% $110
Kamala Harris 12/1 +1200 7.7% $130
Donald Trump 20/1 +2000 4.8% $210
Ivanka Trump +33/1 +3300 2.9% $340

2024 US Election Betting

Candidate 2024 Betting Market Share Odds
Dwayne Johnson 8.8% 100/1
Donald Trump 8.6% 20/1
Andrew Cuomo 8.14% 50/1
Mike Pence 7.6% 10/1
Nikki Haley 7.4% 33/1
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.7% 33/1
Ivanka Trump 6.3% 33/1
Kanye West 5.6% 200/1
Meghan Markle 3% 100/1

Further information

Betting markets are a solid predictor for political markets. Oddschecker collects data from the world's biggest bookmakers, and remains a neutral voice in the market.

Oddschecker has been used as a reference point by some of the biggest publications in the US, if you would like more information/data please contact: useditor@oddschecker.com


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