2026 World Cup Round of 16 Odds: Who Will Advance Past Group Stage, Round of 32?
The Round of 16 just got harder to achieve with the expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams. You now have to advance past the Group Stage and win a Round of 32 matchup. Will USA, Mexico, Norway and others be able to handle that? Let's take a look at the complete Round of 16 Odds at the 2026 World Cup.
Peter Alexis - June 11, 2026, 12:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill the United States, Mexico, Norway Make Round of 16 at 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 World Cup’s expanded format changes the path to the Round of 16. Teams still need to survive the group stage, but with 48 teams, 12 groups, and a new Round of 32, reaching the last 16 now requires getting through the group stage and then winning one knockout match.
That makes this market more difficult than a simple advancement bet. The teams in this range are strong enough to dream about the second week of the tournament, but most still have to navigate dangerous group-stage matchups, bracket uncertainty, and a Round of 32 opponent before reaching the last 16.
Looking for advanced AI predictions and props to enhance your soccer betting? Try out oddschecker+ now on this limited time 7-day free trial!
2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 Odds
2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 Odds Breakdown
USA (+110) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The USA has a clear path to the Round of 16 because of home-field advantage, a manageable Group D draw, and enough top-end talent to win the section. Christian Pulisic remains the attacking centerpiece, while Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Gio Reyna, and Antonee Robinson give the Americans a strong supporting core.
The challenge is that Group D is not soft. Turkey is a real threat to win the group, Paraguay can make games ugly, and Australia has enough World Cup experience to punish a slow start. The USA can make this happen if it takes care of business against Paraguay and Australia, then uses the home crowd to push through a Round of 32 matchup.
Turkey (+120) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Turkey is one of the more dangerous teams in this market because it has enough creativity to win Group D outright. Arda Guler is the headliner, while Hakan Calhanoglu, Kenan Yildiz, Orkun Kokcu, and Kerem Akturkoglu give Turkey a strong attacking and midfield profile.
The concern is consistency. Turkey can look like a knockout-stage team when its technical players control possession, but it can also leave openings defensively if matches become stretched. The path to the Round of 16 is realistic, but Turkey likely needs to avoid finishing third in Group D or land a favorable Round of 32 matchup after dealing with the USA, Paraguay, and Australia.
Colombia (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Colombia has one of the cleaner paths of the group because it should advance from Group K and has a real chance to win it. Portugal is the favorite, but Colombia is not far behind and has the attacking talent to steal first place if the direct matchup breaks its way. Luis Diaz is the star, James Rodriguez adds tournament experience and creativity, and the supporting cast gives Colombia balance across the pitch.
The key is avoiding a bracket penalty by finishing second or third. Colombia should have too much quality for DR Congo and Uzbekistan, so the Portugal match may decide whether its Round of 32 opponent is manageable or dangerous. At -110, Colombia is priced like a team expected to be in the last-16 conversation, but it still has to prove it can turn its group-stage edge into knockout control.
Norway (-120) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Norway’s Round of 16 case starts with Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, one of the best star duos outside the traditional heavyweight nations. Haaland gives Norway a match-breaking scorer, while Odegaard controls tempo, service, and creativity. Alexander Sorloth adds another physical scoring option, making Norway dangerous against nearly anyone if the attack gets chances.
The problem is the group. France is the clear favorite, Senegal is a strong third team with knockout-stage experience, and Iraq is the only match Norway will view as a must-win. Norway can reach the Round of 16 if it beats Iraq, gets a result against Senegal, and lets Haaland decide a Round of 32 matchup, but the margin for error is thinner than some of the other teams on this list.
Mexico (-115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mexico has the hosting boost and a favorable Group A path, which makes its Round of 16 odds attractive compared to some of the teams in tougher sections. El Tri is favored to win a group that includes South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa, and the crowd advantage should matter in every group-stage match.
Santiago Gimenez is the key attacking piece, Edson Alvarez anchors midfield, and veterans like Raul Jimenez and Guillermo Ochoa bring major tournament experience. The concern is that Mexico’s 2022 group-stage exit exposed finishing issues and pressure problems. If Mexico starts fast against South Africa and avoids slipping into second or third, the Round of 16 path becomes very realistic.
Netherlands (-130) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
The Netherlands has the strongest full-tournament profile of this group, but the Round of 16 price is not automatic because Group F is difficult. The Dutch are favored over Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia, but all three opponents are capable of making the group stage uncomfortable.
Virgil van Dijk gives the Netherlands an elite defensive leader, Frenkie de Jong controls midfield, and Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons, and Memphis Depay provide enough attacking quality to carry the group. The Dutch can make the Round of 16 if they handle their opener against Japan and avoid giving Sweden or Tunisia a path back into the table. The talent is there, but this is a tougher route than the name value alone suggests.
More Soccer Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
