2020 US Presidential Election Betting Odds: Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Full overview of the US Election odds market and analysis of the latest betting patterns
Sam Eaton
Tue, July 28, 9:41 AM EDT

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

It’s another week at the top for Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate has now been the bookmakers favorite in the US Election betting market since late May. Previously, Donald Trump had dominated the market, the current President was the long-time betting favorite until Biden took over.

Candidate

Odds (UK Format)

Odds (US Format)

Implied Percentage Chance

Joe Biden

3/5

-167

62.5%

Donald Trump

7/4

+175

36.4%

There's been little change in the odds since we last reported Biden’s dominance on the US Election betting market last week. Since Friday, Joe Biden’s chance of winning the US Election have increased slightly from 61.9% to 62.5%. Unfortunately gambling on politics isn’t legal in the US, however, our UK site works with all the biggest UK bookmakers, and we take the best odds available on the market to compare candidates chances of winning the 2020 US Election. Joe Biden’s current (best) odds are the shortest they’ve ever been.

It's been another bad week for Kanye West’s 2020 US Election chances, his odds have drifted out from +4000 to as big as +40000. This implies his chances of winning the 2020 US Election are now 0.2%. #Vision2020 looks to be over.

Donald Trump’s 2020 US Election Betting Odds

As mentioned, Donald Trump was the long-time favorite in the 2020 US Election betting market, but has recently been displaced by Joe Biden. On the 28th February, Donald Trump’s US Election odds implied he had a 62.5% chance of winning the US Election, his chances have decreased rapidly since. His current odds imply he has a 36.4% chance of winning the 2020 Election, the last time his chances were this low was back in March 2019.

Joe Biden’s 2020 US Election Betting Odds

At the start of 2019, Joe Biden only had a 5.9% chance of winning the 2020 US Election according to the odds. Since then, Biden’s odds have been on a rollercoaster ride. Biden’s chances grew to around 16.7% in January 2020, but decreased rapidly as Bernie Sanders appeared to have gained momentum in the Democratic candidate race. On the 12th February, Joe Biden’s odds implied he only had a 2.9% chance of winning the US Election. Which is low, but made even more surprising when bookmakers gave Kanye West a 2% chance of winning the US Election only a couple of weeks ago.

Joe Biden’s odds have grown rapidly since the start of March, and he now has a 62.5% chance of winning the US Election.

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2020 US Presidential Election Betting

Despite Joe Biden heading the betting market in terms of odds, it’s been Donald Trump who has been the popular option with bettors. In the last seven days, Donald Trump has accounted for 61.5% of all bets placed on the 2020 US Election market. Interestingly, when you look at the actual money wagered instead of the number of bets, Trump’s dominance is even more astonishing.

Candidate

% of bets accounted for in US Election Market in 2020

% of money wagered in US Election Betting Market in 2020

 

% of bets accounted for in US Election Market in July 2020

% of money wagered in US Election Betting Market in July 2020

Donald Trump

52.6%

71.6%

 

55.7%

89.6%

Joe Biden

22.7%

13%

 

28.5%

6.8%

The table above shows that a lot of the big bettors are choosing to put their money on Donald Trump, whereas, not too many high-staking gamblers are willing to put their money on Joe Biden, especially in the last month.

Why is this interesting? This becomes really interesting when you compare the current betting markets to two previous political markets, the 2016 US Election and Brexit.

The table below shows the amount of bets placed on the outcome of two major political events. In both scenarios the bookmakers favorite lost and the public bet correctly. If the trend from the last two major politics betting markets was to continue, despite not being the favorite in the betting market, Donald Trump would actually win the 2020 US Election.

 

Remain/Clinton

Leave/Trump

Brexit

27%

73%

2016 US Election

39%

61%

2020 US Election Betting

Even though online betting is now legal in various states in the US, no legal operator will take bets on the 2020 US Election. This isn’t expected to change before November. However, online betting is legal on sports, and is opening up on a state-by-state basis.

Oddschecker works with the biggest US bookmakers to ensure bettors get the best odds available. We help users beat the odds for events such as the Super Bowl. Check here which operators are available in your state and access thousands of dollars in free bets.

Despite online betting not being available on the US election, people based in the US can play DraftKings free fantasy league.

The prize for the main pool leading into the election is $100,000, and DraftKings also hopes to have additional smaller pools each month leading up to the election, including both National Conventions and all three presidential debates.

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