2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Only Had A 20% Chance Of Winning In 2016, He Has A 35% Chance In 2020

Donald Trump’s election chances in 2020 are far greater than those witnessed in the run-up to the 2016 election
Sam Eaton
Mon, November 2, 6:52 PM EST

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump's 2020 Election Chances Are Much Better Than They Were In 2016. 

It’s crunch-time in the 2020 Presidential election odds market, with bettors all over the world looking to get a wager on the biggest betting event in history. There’s been little movement in the 2020 election odds in the previous twenty-four-hours. Despite 44% of the sportsbooks on our UK site lengthening the odds of a Joe Biden victory, he remains the overwhelming favourite at -188 (8/15), which implies he’s got a 65.2% chance of winning the 2020 US election.

Donald Trump’s odds also haven’t deviated today, the current president’s odds remain at +188 (15/8), which implies Trump has a 34.8% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential election.

2020 Presidential Election Odds

 

US Odds

UK Odds

Implied % Chance

Donald Trump

+188

15/8

34.8%

Joe Biden

-188

8/15

65.2%

 

Donald Trump’s Odds Of Winning The Election Compared To 2016

The odds suggest if Donald Trump was to win another term it would come as quite a shock, however, a victory wouldn’t be as unexpected as the one in 2016.

On the day before election day in 2016, Donald Trump was +400 (4/1) to defeat Hillary Clinton, which implied he only a 20% chance of becoming President.

Hillary Clinton was the huge betting favorite back in 2016, Clinton’s odds on the 7th of November suggested that she had 83.3% of winning the election.

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2016 Presidential Election Odds: Day Before Election Day

 

US Odds

UK Odds

Implied % Chance

Donald Trump

+400

4/1

20%

Hillary Clinton

-500

1/5

83.3%

 

Despite Donald Trump being the big outsider in 2016, online bettors were keen to wager their money on a shock victory. On the day before election day in 2016, Donald Trump accounted for 57% of all wagers placed in the betting market. Clinton was the bet for just over 37% of people in the same time period.

Click here to see the full betting breakdown compared to the 2016 US Election.

Donald Trump’s Odds To Win The 2020 Presidential Election

For people new to gambling, if you were to place a $100 wager on Donald Trump winning the 2020 US election, you would be set to win $287.50 ($187.50 profit).

To put this into perspective, if you placed $100 on Denver Broncos beating Atlanta Falcons this game week, you’d be set to win $280 ($180 profit).

Joe Biden Odds To Win The 2020 Presidential Election

If you were to place a $100 bet on Joe Biden winning the 2020 Presidential election, you would be set to win $153 ($53 profit).

Again, to put this into perspective, if you placed $100 on Minnesota Vikings beating Detroit Lions this game week, you’d be set to win $152.

2020 Presidential Election Betting

We reported yesterday that one of our UK partners had taken a mammoth $1.3 million bet on the US election. The unknown bettor wagered the amount on Joe Biden to be the next President of the United States, which would be set to return in the region of $2 million if Biden wins.

The 2020 Presidential election has already broken all sorts of betting records, and the tally now wagered at one of OddsChecker partners stands at just under $373 million dollars. That amount is expected to reach the $600 million region.

As the hours tick down to the biggest vote in recent history the betting will only intensify. Over the last twenty-four-hours a 67% of wagers in the 2020 US election odds market have been on Donald Trump winning, which follows a very similar trend to the weekend.

Despite Trump accounting for the most actual wagers placed in this time period, Joe Biden has been accountable for the largest volume of money wagered. Just over 53% of money put down in the last 24-hours has been on Biden winning.

OddsChecker’s Verdict On The 2020 Presidential Election

OddsChecker’s Head Of Marketing, Sam Eaton “The 2020 election is following a very similar trend to the one witnessed four years previously. Donald Trump’s the sportsbooks outsider, yet the majority of people who are looking to place a bet on the outcome are favouring Trump”

“On the day before election day in 2016, Donald Trump accounted for 57% of wagers in the betting market. Online bettors have correctly predicted both the 2016 election and Brexit vote, whereas the sportsbooks have got it drastically wrong. Based on recent history, the latest political betting trends are very much pointing to a Donald Trump win in 2020”.

“There are some people who have got it very wrong heading into the 2020 election though. Over $161,000 has been wagered on Kanye West winning the 2020 US election over the past few months, and there’s still a handful of bettors backing a shock Kanye victory today.”

“With so much money wagered in the market, it’s unlikely we will see any odds shift before the morning. Even with no odds moment, a lot of people new to gambling are shocked at how close the odds are for the 2020 election. The best way to frame it to novice gamblers, is to essentially compare Biden vs Trump to Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals Moneyline. Joe Biden’s odds are the same as Cardinals odds of winning, and Trump’s are very similar to Dolphins chances. In this scenario, you’d expect the Cardinals to win, but you wouldn’t be 100% confident of the result. Anything can happen.”

To celebrate the 2020 election, OddsChecker are giving away a patriotic pair of sneakers on our Twitter channel, click to enter in seconds

US Residents Betting On The Election: FanDuel and DraftKings Free To Play Prediction Games

Online betting on sports has been legalised in various states, allowing big operators such as FanDuel and DraftKings to take bets on events like the Super Bowl and The Masters. However, the operators still don’t take actual wagers on political events.

As mentioned, you can still bet on sports, check out all the best betting offers here. If sports isn’t your play, online casinos are now operating in the US.

All our data is backed on our international sites and all the partners they work with, which includes all the biggest bookmakers in the UK. Our data is used by publications like Fox News, CNN and BBC.

Despite US residents not being able to wager on the upcoming vote, they can still pocket a large sum of money on the outcome. FanDuel and DraftKings are both running completely free-to-play games for the election. Users have to predict different outcomes to win a share of $100k at DraftKings and $50k at FanDuel.

Click here to find out more about FanDuel's free-to-play election game

Click here to find out more about DraftKings' free-to-play election game

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