Caitlyn Jenner's Odds Now 25-1 to Win California Gubernatorial Election
Caitlyn Jenner has just announced that she intends to run for Governor of California. Jenner becomes the 4th Republican to declare for the recall election in 2021. The announcement has seen her odds cut significantly. Just two weeks ago, Jenner was 100-1 to win the Gubernatorial race, but after declaring on Friday her odds have shrunk to 25-1.
While California is almost always a safe blue state, recall elections such as this have a way of being unpredictable. That opens the door for someone like Jenner. After all, the last Republican Governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who also won a recall election.
Could Caitlyn Jenner Be Elected Governor of California?
Still Caitlyn Jenner faces long odds to be the next Governor of California. To put this into context, at 25-1 Jenner has the same odds of winning the California Gubernatorial election as Mike Pence does to win the 2024 Presidential election. Those odds imply just a 3.8% chance she's elected.
The American public is unpredictable. Even in a safe blue state like California, there’s a chance that a Republican can take home a win in a recall election. Just in 2018 a Democrat state senator lost a recall race in California before winning his seat back in 2020.
These races are always crazy unpredictable and Jenner, as a celebrity with name recognition, may have an edge over her Republican colleagues as a result. Current California Governor Gavin Newsom is still likely to hold his seat in a safe blue state, but if any Republican could pull off a shocker, it just might be Jenner.