2022 Election Odds: 60% of Bets on Republicans Retaking House, Senate

Bettors are expecting the Republicans to bounce back in a big way in 2022
Kyle Newman
Mon, May 10, 7:07 AM EDT

2022 Election Odds: 60% of Bets on Republicans Retaking House, Senate

With ever changing and more controversial election laws passing every day, all eyes are on the 2022 election. With new district lines being draw and a number of swing state senate races, the balance of power in Congress is up for grabs. Right now, both bettors and oddsmakers believe that it’ll be a sweeping victory for Republicans.

Oddsmakers give Republicans +144 odds, or an implied 40.9% chance to win back both the House and Senate in 2022. Bettors are even more sure, as 60% of bets over the last 7 days have been on the Republicans to take back both chambers.

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2022 Election Betting

That said, the second favorite option of both oddsmakers and bettors is for Democrats to hold onto both chambers. Oddsmakers give Democrats +186 odds, or an implied 35% chance to retain control of Congress. Bettors are less bullish, as only 20% of bets over the last 7 days are on Democrats maintaining their advantage.

Of course, with the polarizing nature of the current American political landscape, neither oddsmakers nor bettors believe there’s much of a chance that the house and senate is split.

Historical precedent would say that turnover in a mid-term election should be expected. However, given how polarized and politically charged America is right now that may not be the case. More people are turning out to vote then ever before, even in mid-term and special elections. Historically, high turnout is a strong indication of Democrat success. So, if enthusiasm stats high as predicted into 2022, oddsmakers and bettors could look very foolish.

2022 Election Odds

Results

Odds

Implied chance

House (R)/Senate (R)

+144

40.9%

House (D)/Senate (D)

+186

35%

House (R)/Senate (D)

+450

18.2%

House (D)/Senate (R)

+520

16.1%

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