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2024 Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Favored to Win the 2024 Presidential Election

The 2024 Presidential Election race has been quite the journey thus far. Joe Biden had been the massive underdog for quite some time, but now he is the firm favorite to win. Kyle Newman breaks down the 2024 Presidential Election odds.
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2024 Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Favored to Win the 2024 Presidential Election

The arrow has been pointing up for Joe Biden since the mid-term elections. The current President, who had long been a massive underdog to win reelection, is now favored to win the 2024 election for the first time.

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After the mid-term elections Biden was given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance. That improved to +550 odds, or an implied 15.4% chance by December. On February 1st though, Biden now sees his odds sitting at +300, or an implied 25% chance. It’s not only the first time Biden has been favored to win the 2024 election, but it’s the first time any Democrat has been at the top of the market.

Meanwhile, the top Republican candidate is still not Donald Trump. The former President is given +440 odds, or an implied 18.5% chance. Those are his best odds since the mid-term, but they still trail Ron DeSantis. The Governor of Florida is tied with Biden at the top of the market with +300 odds, meaning his odds have not moved since December.

The sportsbooks are always better at understanding the national feeling than individual states, making their predictive power much better for Presidential elections. They were correct in 2020 for example, as they predicted Biden’s win over Trump. So when the markets shift so heavily like this, it’s noteworthy. Especially so, when that candidate was a massive underdog less than six months ago in their fight for re-election.

CandidateOddsImplied chance
Joe Biden+30025%
Ron DeSantis+30025%
Donald Trump+44018.5%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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