Next Attorney General Odds: Lee Zeldin Early Favorite After Pam Bondi Fired by Trump on Thursday
After Pam Bondi was fired by Donald Trump on Thursday afternoon, who will take over as the next attorney general? Lee Zeldin is the early favorite as current EPA administrator and deep law background. Peter Alexis breaks down the Next Attorney General odds as of Thursday, April 2nd.
Peter Alexis - April 2, 2026, 3:30 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadNext Attorney General Odds: Lee Zeldin Early Favorite After Pam Bondi Fired by Trump on Thursday
Pam Bondi’s firing on Thursday immediately shifted the market from whether she was out to who Donald Trump will elevate next. Kalshi now has Lee Zeldin as the early favorite at 60%, with Todd Blanche at 18% and Mike Lee at 6% well behind him. That tells you the market sees this as Zeldin’s job to lose, at least in the opening hours after Bondi’s departure. Trump has already named Blanche as acting attorney general, but the permanent-choice market is clearly leaning elsewhere.
The key question is whether Trump wants a temporary steward or a political promotion. Bondi was pushed out after backlash tied largely to her handling of the Epstein files, and reporting since the firing has pointed to Zeldin as a name under serious consideration for the permanent role. That helps explain why his line is still sitting north of 60%, even with Blanche already stepping in on an interim basis.
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Next Attorney General Odds
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Lee Zeldin | 60% |
Todd Blanche | 18% |
Mike Lee | 6% |
Next Attorney General Odds Breakdown
Lee Zeldin: 60% Chance
Zeldin’s case starts with his relationship to Trump and his current visibility inside the administration. He is the EPA administrator, sworn in on January 29, 2025, and he is a former Republican congressman from New York with a legal background that gives him at least a plausible bridge into a Justice Department role. The market appears to be betting that Trump wants a loyal cabinet official he already trusts rather than a pure DOJ insider.
There is also a political logic to the price. Moving Zeldin from EPA to attorney general would give Trump a more overtly political choice at DOJ without having to reach outside his current team. Reuters, AP, and other outlets all identified him as a serious possibility almost immediately after Bondi’s ouster, which is usually a strong sign in a market like this. The fact that he opened and held around 60% suggests traders see him as the cleanest permanent replacement rather than just a rumor-driven name.
Todd Blanche: 18% Chance
Blanche is the acting attorney general now, which naturally keeps him in the conversation. He was confirmed as deputy attorney general in 2025, is a former federal prosecutor, and previously served as one of Trump’s defense lawyers. Those credentials make him an obvious emergency replacement and explain why he spiked in the market once Bondi was fired.
Still, his 18% number suggests the market is treating him more as the temporary solution than the eventual answer. He has the job right now, but not necessarily the political edge that Zeldin appears to have with Trump at this moment. Traders seem to be reading Blanche as the safe interim hand while the White House decides whether to make a more strategic long-term appointment.
Mike Lee: 6% Chance
Mike Lee is the clear longer shot among the three, but he is notable enough to stay on the board. The Utah senator has long been discussed in Trump-world legal circles, and that speculation predates Bondi’s firing by quite a while. He has a law background and has become a much closer Trump ally over time, which is why his name continues to surface in attorney general chatter.
At 6%, though, the market is saying this is still a pretty remote path. Unlike Zeldin and Blanche, Lee is not already sitting inside the administration in a legal executive role, so the jump would be bigger and more politically involved. Unless new reporting pushes him harder into the conversation, he looks more like an outside option than a true co-contender right now.
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