Next Attorney General Odds: Will Todd Blanche Replace Pam Bondi as Trump's AG?
Pam Bondi was removed from the Attorney General role by Prsesident Trump at the beginning of April, and now everyone is wondering who will take over. Todd Blanche has been the acting AG so far, and has soared in the odds over Lee Zeldin. Will he maintain the role in a permanent capacity? Peter Alexis analyzes the Next Attorney General odds from Kalshi as of Wednesday, May 6th.
Peter Alexis - May 6, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNext Attorney General Odds: Todd Blanche Surges in Market, Overtaking Early Favorite Lee Zeldin
The market for Trump’s next attorney general has shifted decisively over the last week. Todd Blanche is now up to 67%, while Lee Zeldin has fallen to 16% and Ron DeSantis sits at 7%, a notable reversal from earlier in the race when Zeldin had been the favorite. That move reflects both Blanche’s growing visibility inside the administration and the market’s belief that he is now the clearest in-house choice after Pam Bondi was fired last month following a turbulent run that drew heavy criticism.
Bondi’s exit is the backdrop for all of this. Her tenure had been hit by repeated controversy, including the broader fallout you mentioned around major blunders and the Epstein-related issues that helped sour confidence in her standing. The bigger point for this market is that Trump’s staffing choices have shown a willingness to swing quickly, so even a candidate with a strong lead can still lose it if the political winds change. That volatility is a big reason these prices can move sharply in a short window.
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Next Attorney General Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Todd Blanche | 67% |
Lee Zeldin | 16% |
Ron DeSantis | 7% |
Todd Blanche — 67% Chance
Blanche now looks like the default favorite because he is already operating near the center of the legal and political machinery. He is already the acting U.S. attorney general in a major recent case, which matters because markets often gravitate toward the person already doing parts of the job in practice. That kind of institutional proximity helps explain why he has jumped from roughly the low-40s to the high-60s over the last week.
The case for Blanche is simple: he is the cleanest continuity option. He has the legal profile, he is already visible in major Justice Department matters, and traders appear to believe Trump may prefer a trusted internal hand over another outside surprise. Still, even with a 67% market share, this is not a done deal. Trump’s personnel calls have a long history of changing quickly, which is why Blanche’s lead looks strong but not untouchable.
Lee Zeldin — 16% Chance
Zeldin’s drop is the biggest movement on the board. He had been the earlier favorite, but he is now well behind Blanche at 16%, which suggests the market sees his path narrowing rather than expanding. Zeldin is still a prominent Trump ally and is currently serving as EPA administrator, a role Reuters identified when covering his policy moves and the administration’s cabinet structure.
He remains plausible because he has political stature, loyalty, and a cabinet-level profile. But that same role at EPA may now be part of why he is slipping. If Trump is looking for the next attorney general right away, Blanche may simply feel more directly plugged into the legal side of the administration than Zeldin does at this moment. That does not eliminate Zeldin, but it helps explain why his odds have been cut down so sharply.
Ron DeSantis — 7% Chance
DeSantis remains the more speculative outsider on this board. Reuters’ recent coverage shows him deeply engaged in Florida politics, including pushing an aggressive redistricting map and signing major state legislation, which reinforces that he is still very much operating as Florida’s governor rather than preparing for a move into Trump’s Justice Department.
That is why 7% feels about right. He has the legal background and national profile to appear in a market like this, but the current evidence points much more toward his continued role in Florida than toward an imminent jump to attorney general. In a Trump administration, another major shift is always possible, but for now the board is telling a fairly clear story: Blanche has taken over, Zeldin has faded, and DeSantis is still more longshot than serious threat.
Next Attorney General Prediction
- Pick: Todd Blanche - 67% Chance Bet on the Todd Blanche for Attorney General with Kalshi Here
In an administration where nothing goes to script and there is chaos abound, the best bet in this market is to roll with the guy that's already halfway into the role. Trump has a lot going on with Iran and other controversies, and will want to have someone he can trust installed rapidly.
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