Will Anthropic Get SEC Approval for IPO Before Open AI as Companies Race to Market in Late 2026?
Anthropic and OpenAI are racing toward two of the most anticipated IPOs in market history. Kalshi traders currently give Anthropic a major edge to go public first, but the market has flipped several times as new filings, valuation reports, and IPO timeline rumors have hit the tape. Here is a look at the latest OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO odds.
Peter Alexis - June 18, 2026, 5:03 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadOpen AI vs. Anthropic IPO Odds: Claude Maker Anthropic Overtakes Open AI Once Again in IPO Race Reversal
The race between OpenAI and Anthropic has become one of the most closely watched financial markets in artificial intelligence. Kalshi currently gives Anthropic a 76% chance to IPO before OpenAI, while OpenAI sits at 27%, showing traders are leaning strongly toward Claude’s parent company reaching the public market first.
The chart tells the story of a market that has not moved in a straight line. Anthropic began as the favorite, lost that position several times, and then regained control after fresh filing and timeline news. OpenAI has also had several sharp spikes, especially when reports surfaced that it had filed confidentially and could target a massive valuation, but Anthropic has once again separated as the market leader.
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Open AI vs. Anthropic IPO Race Odds Breakdown
Anthropic (76%) Click here to Bet on Anthropic with Kalshi Here
Anthropic is the current favorite because it moved first in the public-market process. The company confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO before OpenAI, and that matters in a market asking who gets there first rather than who becomes larger. Once Anthropic’s filing hit, traders quickly repriced the race around procedural momentum.
The case is also supported by trajectory. Anthropic has become one of the most important companies in enterprise AI, with Claude gaining traction against ChatGPT and major investors treating the company as one of the core players in the next public AI wave. If the company is already further along in SEC review and investor education, the 76% price makes sense.
The risk is timing. Confidential filings do not guarantee immediate listings, and the final IPO window can still depend on market conditions, valuation targets, and internal readiness. Anthropic may be ahead, but OpenAI is close enough behind that any stronger timeline report from Sam Altman’s company could flip the market again.
OpenAI (27%) Click here to Bet on Open AI with Kalshi Here
OpenAI is the underdog in this market despite being the more recognizable company globally. The ChatGPT maker has also filed confidentially, and Reuters has reported that its IPO could come as early as September with a potential valuation of up to $1 trillion. That timeline is why OpenAI has repeatedly surged on the chart whenever new listing reports have broken.
The bull case is that OpenAI has the stronger brand, the larger consumer footprint, and the kind of investor demand that could accelerate a public debut. Recent reporting around talent moves, spending, and IPO preparation all points to a company positioning itself for one of the largest tech listings ever. If OpenAI decides to push aggressively, it could still beat Anthropic to market.
The bearish case is that OpenAI may have more moving pieces to settle before going public. Its spending, infrastructure demands, governance complexity, and long-term valuation expectations make the listing more complicated. That does not mean OpenAI is less likely to IPO, only that it may be less likely to move first.
Why The Market Has Flipped
The Kalshi chart shows several sharp reversals because this market is highly sensitive to small timeline signals. Anthropic’s early lead came from expectations that it was preparing faster, but OpenAI surged whenever reports suggested a confidential filing or a sooner-than-expected public debut. Anthropic then regained control once the market processed that it had already taken the first formal step.
That is why this market can keep moving rapidly even without a completed IPO. A banking mandate, SEC update, investor roadshow report, valuation leak, or CEO comment can shift the odds immediately. The question is not which company is more valuable or more famous, it is which one closes the first IPO process.
OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO Market Outlook
Anthropic is the rightful favorite because it appears to have the cleaner first-mover advantage. It filed before OpenAI, has a more straightforward market narrative around enterprise AI and Claude, and does not carry quite the same level of public-market complexity as OpenAI’s sprawling consumer, enterprise, infrastructure, and hardware ambitions.
OpenAI still has a real path, especially if its September timeline firms up and investor demand pushes the company to accelerate. But based on current trajectory, Anthropic looks more likely to get to market first. The market has flipped before and could flip again, but the latest odds point clearly toward Anthropic winning the IPO race.
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