2028 Republican Nominee Odds: JD Vance Pulls Away from Marco Rubio Again as Midterms Approach
JD Vance’s 2028 Republican nomination contract has rebounded as attention turns toward the midterm elections. Explore the latest market movement, Marco Rubio’s position and the unresolved questions surrounding the Republican succession debate.
Peter Alexis - September 9, 2026, 10:15 AM EDT
4 Minute Read2028 Republican Nominee Odds: JD Vance Rebounds Back to Clear Favorite in Election Race
JD Vance is moving back toward the halfway mark in the 2028 Republican presidential nominee market. Kalshi lists Vance at 45%, comfortably ahead of Marco Rubio at 21%, while Ron DeSantis trails at 4.4%. Those prices reflect traders’ expectations for the nomination, rather than voter support in a primary poll.
Vance’s recovery follows a summer dip into the low-30% range, when Rubio traded much closer to the vice president. The latest movement has widened their separation to 24 percentage points. Vance remains below earlier levels above 50%, but the board has moved away from the closely contested picture that developed during the summer.
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2028 Republican Nominee Odds Breakdown
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
JD Vance | 45% |
Marco Rubio | 21% |
Ron DeSantis | 4.4% |
2028 Republican Nominee Odds Breakdown
JD Vance: 45% Chance
Vance has recovered considerable ground, although his contract remains below earlier levels above 50%. His position as vice president keeps him closely associated with the administration and prominent in the succession debate. He has previously said he would discuss a potential presidential run with Trump after November’s elections.
That makes the post-midterm period particularly relevant. Clearer indications of his intentions and an explicit endorsement would provide more concrete information than the current speculation. For now, the rebound establishes renewed confidence among traders, but it does not guarantee that his advantage will continue growing.
Marco Rubio: 21% Chance
Rubio has retreated from his summer highs, leaving him well behind Vance but comfortably ahead of DeSantis. His earlier advances demonstrated how competitive the market could become. Rubio also briefly moved above Vance in the presidential election winner market earlier this year, although that is a separate outcome from securing the Republican nomination.
Trump has floated the possibility of Vance and Rubio running together without settling the succession question. Until their plans become clearer, Rubio’s position encompasses several possibilities, including a competing candidacy or a shared ticket. His current price reflects a setback in the nomination market, rather than a resolved decision about his political future.
Ron DeSantis: 4.4% Chance
DeSantis remains a distant third among the candidates shown, with his contract largely staying in the low single digits while Vance and Rubio have experienced larger swings. The latest snapshot offers little evidence that traders are treating him as an immediate challenger to either administration figure.
His position is another unresolved part of the field as attention shifts toward November and beyond. Candidate announcements, endorsements and the response to the midterm results will provide more information about the eventual contest. At present, however, the market’s main competition remains between Vance and Rubio.
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