Best MLB Bets Today: HR Picks, Strikeout Props, and Total Bases Bets for Friday, May 9

We've got a full slate on tap for this Friday, May 9, and there are plenty of matchups to take advantage. We've seen Randy Vasquez become a magician in his first few starts of the season while players Marcell Ozuna and Gunnar Henderson look to re-find their power in plus matchups.

I've got three of my favorite props for this Friday MLB slate with each bet getting higher and higher in odds. We'll end as we always do with a home run bet! But let's start with my favorite hitter vs. pitcher matchup of May 9th:

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Best MLB Bets Today: Friday, May 9

Mild: Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

After back-to-back 39+ home run seasons, Marcell Ozuna is off to a ‘slow’ start to 2025. Well, slow by his standards. 

The Big Bear has just five home runs this season and has seen his barrel rate drop to 10.6%, his lowest since 2021. He hasn’t hit a home run in over 10 games. Ozuna has shown a lot more restraint at the plate (career-best 20.8% walk rate) but I would expect his power to come around sooner rather than later. 

Perhaps a plus matchup against the soft-tossing southpaw Bailey Falter is the perfect way to get back on track. Falter is a below-average arm that relies on pitching to contact above all. He is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles to limit hard contact, with a career 1.45 HR/9 rate to show for. 

Despite Ozuna’s home run drought, he is continuing to crush the baseball. Of his last 15 batted balls, seven have come off the bat at 101+ mph. While he hasn’t been great against lefties this season, last year Ozuna hit .319 with a 33% extra base hit rate. 

The weather should work in Ozuna’s favor here, too. While Pittsburgh isn’t exactly a hitter’s paradise, the wind will be blowing out at near-double-digit rates. RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge tool projects a +11.8% increase in home runs as a result. 

While we don’t need a home run, that would cash this prop here in one swing. In general, this is a great matchup for Ozuna, who has a .500 average against Falter in 10 at-bats (three doubles). The Braves should be able to chug along here and take advantage of a below-average arm and Pirates team in general that remains in disarray. 

Medium: Eduardo Rodriguez 6+ Strikeouts (+134) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Let’s head into a slight plus money prop here against one of the scariest lineups in baseball, shall we? 

Eduardo Rodriguez has not looked great the last few starts, struggling to limit the long ball (5 HRs). But he’s also been generating swings and misses at one of the highest rates of his career. I get the hesitancy of fading the Dodgers, but this is a lineup that does have its strikeout issues - even with the high-octane bats like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. 

In fact, Ohtani actually has a 25.6% strikeout rate (27th percentile). Due to injuries across the board to Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Edman, the Dodgers offense against left-handed pitching should see a pretty significant dip. LA can either roll with left-on-left bats like Michael Conforto, James Outman, etc., or roll with the high-strikeout righties like Kike Hernandez and Chris Taylor. 

That’s why I love to buy on Rodriguez here. He just struck out 10 Phillies his last time on the mound and the Dodgers, while they should be able to tag Rodrigeuz for a few here, should also strikeout plenty. 

You wouldn’t expect it, but the Dodgers are below average in strikeouts per game (8.53, 18th in MLB). Rodriguez has been over this number in three of his last six starts and I’m willing to trust his swing-and-miss stuff continues here against a beatable backend of the Dodgers’ lineup.  

Hot: Brenton Doyle it hit a Home Run +500 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

Randy Vasquez is one of the most overrated pitchers in baseball, and negative regression will come soon for the soft-tossing right-hander. It may not be against the Rockies because…well, they’re the Rockies. But I’m going to bite the bullet here and fade the 26-year-old. 

Despite a 3.90 ERA, Vasquez’s xERA sits over two runs higher at 6.11! He is extremely wild (16.2 BB%), generates little to no swings and misses (8.8 K%) and has been barreled a career-worst 9.2% of the time. 

Yet, somehow, Vasquez has allowed just one home run this season and has only seen two of his seven starts end with 3+ earned runs allowed. 

At some point we’re going to blink and Vasquez’s ERA will sit in the 5s and he’ll be fresh off a multi-home run game. Could it be tonight? Possibly. 

Brenton Doyle is the guy that I’m targeting for Colorado. He has the second-highest barrel rate on the Rockies (15.9%) and has been quite unlucky this season (xBA of .271 vs. .218 actual). He has been hitting the ball hard, making improvements across the board and becoming a great hitter on an otherwise bad Rockies team. 

Even though it’s his weaker split, Doyle has been crushing the ball against righties of late. Of his last eight batted balls, half have come off the bat 100+ mph or higher. Only one of those four ended in a base hit. 

Doyle is continuing to hit the ball hard and in the air. Against a pitcher like Vasquez, he could walk multiple times and not really get a shot. But if he gets ahead in the count and Vasquez serves a meatball, don’t be surprised to see it end up in the bleachers. Return to sender, please!

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